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luis martin cabiedes

T2 · manager / operator

Philosophy graduate turned investor; backed unicorns Privalia, Trovit, BlaBlaCar, Indexa Capital, Deporvillage, Habitissimo. Ran 21 Capital VC funds (Fund 3 ~3x DPI, Fund 4 marked by Indexa). Stopped VC fundraising in 2019, avoiding disastrous 2019-2022 vintages. Now runs Inversiones Caviedes doing entrepreneurial acquisitions (PE-style buyouts of profitable SMEs). Known for metrics-driven discipline, contrarian views on public funding, and skepticism on AI startup opportunities.

11 calls·11 names·55% bull·last heard 10 months ago·SeedRocket TV
track record

no scored calls yet — needs a stated position or a categorical verdict, with a matured window vs SPY

top calls

highest conviction · one per company
1sthigh conviction
$INDEXA-CAPITALIndexa Capitalposition

Cabiedes calls Indexa the standout holding, worth 2.5x Fund 4 on low-fee disruption

Indexa's ultra-low fee model looked like a poor business, but founders Francois, Unai and Ramon executed exceptionally; it is now worth 2.5x the whole fund, validating a contrarian bet on fee compression.

SeedRocket TV2025-12episode →
2ndhigh conviction
$PRIVALIAPrivalia

Cabiedes cites Privalia as the metrics-driven winner: raw demand beat operational chaos

Privalia showed explosive organic demand — any branded product at 40% off sold out instantly — proving product-market fit despite an operational mess; the numbers argued for buying regardless of the investor's personal taste.

SeedRocket TV2025-12episode →
3rdhigh conviction
$BLABLACARBlaBlaCar

Cabiedes admits missing BlaBlaCar at first, then invested on viral metrics

Initially dismissed as unpaid hitchhiking with no revenue, BlaBlaCar showed spectacular organic viral growth and cross-border demand, with French users seeking trips to Barcelona; traction forced the investment despite personal scepticism.

SeedRocket TV2025-12episode →

most discussed · click a bar to filter

  • $PRIVALIA
  • $BLABLACAR
  • $INDEXA-CAPITAL
  • $HABITISSIMO
  • $OFERUM

recurring themes

  • Venture Capital3
  • AI Economics & Business Models1
  • Private Markets1
  • Government Technology1
  • Housing1
11 total
$PRIVALIA
Privalia
HIGHluis martin cabiedes·SeedRocket TV·10 months ago·Luis Martín Cabiedes: 30 años de inversión sin filtros
Cabiedes cites Privalia as the metrics-driven winner: raw demand beat operational chaos
Privalia showed explosive organic demand — any branded product at 40% off sold out instantly — proving product-market fit despite an operational mess; the numbers argued for buying regardless of the investor's personal taste.
"Privalia que sí que la vimos, pues tenía todos los problemas del mundo, ¿no? Pero era como si tú tienes una frutería, ¿no? Y cada vez que levantaban la persiana dejaban aquellos s…"
19:59
$BLABLACAR
BlaBlaCar
HIGHluis martin cabiedes·SeedRocket TV·10 months ago·Luis Martín Cabiedes: 30 años de inversión sin filtros
Cabiedes admits missing BlaBlaCar at first, then invested on viral metrics
Initially dismissed as unpaid hitchhiking with no revenue, BlaBlaCar showed spectacular organic viral growth and cross-border demand, with French users seeking trips to Barcelona; traction forced the investment despite personal scepticism.
"A mí cuando me dijeron lo de compartir coche dije yo, esto desde luego no lo veo. No, pero me dijeron ya si no no me lo dijeron así, pero luego me dijeron, 'Ya, ya, pero es que fí…"
17:13
$INDEXA-CAPITAL
Indexa Capital
HIGHluis martin cabiedes·SeedRocket TV·10 months ago·Luis Martín Cabiedes: 30 años de inversión sin filtros· position
Cabiedes calls Indexa the standout holding, worth 2.5x Fund 4 on low-fee disruption
Indexa's ultra-low fee model looked like a poor business, but founders Francois, Unai and Ramon executed exceptionally; it is now worth 2.5x the whole fund, validating a contrarian bet on fee compression.
"el fondo cuatro... tiene una compañía que se indexa que que vale tres dos veces y medio el fondo... Indexa era era no era de cajón... François Ramón y Un son los cracks porque lo…"
16:38
$HABITISSIMO
Habitissimo
HIGHluis martin cabiedes·SeedRocket TV·10 months ago·Luis Martín Cabiedes: 30 años de inversión sin filtros
Cabiedes reinvested in Habitissimo round after round, but only on the metrics
Habitissimo delivered consistent metrics across multiple rounds. The discipline behind it: follow on only when the numbers validate, never on hope — as he puts it, he is not a cash machine.
"invertido en habitísimo que nos fue muy bien y ahora en la la siguiente que es Sculinary y tengo muchísimo... oye, tío, cuando vengas con métricas buenas yo te pongo dinero, si no…"
74:18
$OFERUM
Oferum
HIGHluis martin cabiedes·SeedRocket TV·10 months ago·Luis Martín Cabiedes: 30 años de inversión sin filtros
Cabiedes: rival overfunding destroyed a viable Oferum — too much money ruined a good business
Four overfunded competitors burned capital on customer acquisition through Google and Facebook ads without expanding the market; capital inefficiency killed a good business, not price competition.
"Oferum fue un negocio en el cual el exceso de dinero arruinó un negocio que era muy bueno o que podía haber sido muy bueno. En el exceso de dinero, ¿en qué sentido? Pues que había…"
34:23
$GLOVO
Glovo
HIGHluis martin cabiedes·SeedRocket TV·10 months ago·Luis Martín Cabiedes: 30 años de inversión sin filtros
Cabiedes attacks public funding of Glovo against 350M euros of penalties
Public money flowed to Glovo despite labour violations that drew EUR 350M in social security fines — a case of misallocation where the state funds a project and then penalises it, distorting the market and crowding out private capital.
"la cantidad de dinero público que ha ido a Glovo para que luego tenga 350 millones de de sanciones de seguridad social, esto es difícil de entender, ¿no? O sea, tú financias un pr…"
62:00
$DEPORVILLAGE
Deporvillage
LOWluis martin cabiedes·SeedRocket TV·10 months ago·Luis Martín Cabiedes: 30 años de inversión sin filtros· position
Cabiedes wrote off Deporvillage, then COVID tailwind drove exit: 'le vino Dios a ver'
Deporvillage was written off after 3 years; COVID lockdowns created massive online sports demand and perfect exit timing — outcome driven by exogenous luck, not original thesis.
"Yo la di de baja y 3 años más tarde pues viene una cosa, se llama el Covid, cierra todo el mundo y abre el tío la persiana y todo el mundo quiere comprar deporte online. Claro que…"
35:47
$CABIFY
Cabify
MEDluis martin cabiedes·SeedRocket TV·10 months ago·Luis Martín Cabiedes: 30 años de inversión sin filtros
Cabiedes cites Cabify as another example of public money misallocation in ride-hailing
Cabify received significant public funds despite questionable unit economics; public capital distorts competitive dynamics in sectors that cannot absorb infinite capital efficiently.
"Glovo y Cabify, que son muy majos... la cantidad de dinero público que ha ido a Glovo... pero esto pasa con muchos otros, ¿no?"
62:00
$GOOGL
···
Alphabet (Google)
MEDluis martin cabiedes·SeedRocket TV·10 months ago·Luis Martín Cabiedes: 30 años de inversión sin filtros
Cabiedes: Google has 'enormous advantage' in AI — incumbent data, distribution, and capital moat
AI favors incumbents: Google (and Microsoft) possess structural advantages — compute, data, distribution, capital — that make it 'extraordinarily hostile' for startups; generalist models beat vertical specialists.
"hay una ventaja tan enorme para Microsoft y para Google, eh, y que se cuestiona o que algún loco puede cuestionar si Chat GPT puede seguir siendo competitivo en el futuro, ¿qué va…"
75:27
$OPENAI
OpenAI
MEDluis martin cabiedes·SeedRocket TV·10 months ago·Luis Martín Cabiedes: 30 años de inversión sin filtros
Cabiedes warns ChatGPT could suffer 'Dropbox fate' — category creator displaced by platform incumbents
OpenAI risks sliding to marginality like Dropbox or Netscape: category creators often lose to platform incumbents who bundle competing features for free (Microsoft/Google); startups building vertical AI apps get crushed when generalist models absorb their functionality.
"el titular de hoy es que ojo en Nvidia que ya Google está muy cerca y hace unos meses era, ojo, Chat GPT, entonces si Chat GPT puede pasarle lo que a Dropbox que le puede pasar pe…"
75:27
9
Venture Capitalheadwind
Cabiedes: VC returns run inverse to inflows — record investment, record-low expected returns
Academic research shows vintage-year returns are inversely correlated with capital deployed; 2009-2012 vintages outperformed because little capital chased deals, while 2019-2022 vintages face structural headwinds from record fundraising. Diversification across vintages is mandatory, not optional.
9
AI Economics & Business Modelsheadwind
Cabiedes: AI favours incumbents and generalists, leaving founders an extraordinarily hostile environment
Structural advantages (compute, data, distribution, capital) accrue to Google/Microsoft; generalist models (ChatGPT) absorb vertical specialist value (legal, news, coding) within months. Startups should not build 'picks and shovels' or vertical AI tools — instead, apply AI to compete in traditional markets (e.g., AI-powered law firm vs law firms).
8
Venture Capitaltailwind
Cabiedes: Investment discipline > stock picking — vintage diversification, phased capital, no rescue financing, sell early
Success comes from portfolio discipline: diversify across vintages, phase capital with a small first cheque and follow-ons only on metrics, never rescue a failing company, and sell at the first good offer before the opportunity spoils. Asset allocation and process dominate security selection.
8
Private Marketstailwind
Cabiedes: private equity is the better-built model, shifting to buyouts of profitable SMEs
PE generates larger personal fortunes for GPs thanks to lower risk, cash-flow visibility and control. Cabiedes now runs private equity in miniature, buying majority stakes in companies with EUR 1-3M EBITDA facing generational succession, applying the PE playbook at smaller scale.
8
Government Technologyheadwind
Cabiedes: public funding distorts VC — go the opposite way from where public money goes
Public money (NextGen EU, CDTI) flows to low-impact sectors (food delivery, ride-hailing) and charges high management fees (€60-80M/yr on €3-4B); only ~€12-13M of €4B went to deep tech transfer. Investors should avoid sectors crowded with public capital — it signals low expected returns.
8
Housingheadwind
Spanish residential real estate uninvestable as political intervention goes unpriced
Residential real estate faces arbitrary political risk — Barcelona's 2009 moratorium on new tourist licences, rent controls, licence revocations. This is an intervened sector rather than a regulated one, and the political risk is not priced in.
7
Venture Capitalheadwind
Early-stage VC is 'masochistic' — 15-25 year value creation timeline; better to focus near inflection points
Venture investing locks capital for 15-25 years before value is realised, which he likens to watching television in the desert. Rational investors should concentrate on later stages closer to value creation, using leverage and time compression.