luis martin cabiedes

T2 · manager / operator

Philosophy graduate turned investor; backed unicorns Privalia, Trovit, BlaBlaCar, Indexa Capital, Deporvillage, Habitissimo. Ran 21 Capital VC funds (Fund 3 ~3x DPI, Fund 4 marked by Indexa). Stopped VC fundraising in 2019, avoiding disastrous 2019-2022 vintages. Now runs Inversiones Caviedes doing entrepreneurial acquisitions (PE-style buyouts of profitable SMEs). Known for metrics-driven discipline, contrarian views on public funding, and skepticism on AI startup opportunities.

5 calls·5 names·40% bull·last heard 8 months ago·SeedRocket TV
track record

no scored calls yet — needs a stated position or a categorical verdict, with a matured window vs SPY

top calls

highest conviction · one per company
1stlow conviction
$DEPORVILLAGEDeporvillageposition

Cabiedes wrote off Deporvillage, then COVID tailwind drove exit: 'le vino Dios a ver'

Deporvillage was written off after 3 years; COVID lockdowns created massive online sports demand and perfect exit timing — outcome driven by exogenous luck, not original thesis.

2ndmedium conviction
$CABIFYCabify

Cabiedes cites Cabify as another example of public money misallocation in ride-hailing

Cabify received significant public funds despite questionable unit economics; public capital distorts competitive dynamics in sectors that cannot absorb infinite capital efficiently.

3rdmedium conviction
$GOOGLAlphabet (Google)

Cabiedes: Google has 'enormous advantage' in AI — incumbent data, distribution, and capital moat

AI favors incumbents: Google (and Microsoft) possess structural advantages — compute, data, distribution, capital — that make it 'extraordinarily hostile' for startups; generalist models beat vertical specialists.

most discussed · click a bar to filter

5 total
$DEPORVILLAGE
Deporvillage
LOWluis martin cabiedes·SeedRocket TV·8 months ago· position
Cabiedes wrote off Deporvillage, then COVID tailwind drove exit: 'le vino Dios a ver'
Deporvillage was written off after 3 years; COVID lockdowns created massive online sports demand and perfect exit timing — outcome driven by exogenous luck, not original thesis.
"Yo la di de baja y 3 años más tarde pues viene una cosa, se llama el Covid, cierra todo el mundo y abre el tío la persiana y todo el mundo quiere comprar deporte online. Claro que…"
35:47
$CABIFY
Cabify
Cabiedes cites Cabify as another example of public money misallocation in ride-hailing
Cabify received significant public funds despite questionable unit economics; public capital distorts competitive dynamics in sectors that cannot absorb infinite capital efficiently.
"Globo y Cabify, que son muy majos... la cantidad de dinero público que ha ido a Globo... pero esto pasa con muchos otros, ¿no?"
62:00
$GOOGL
···
Alphabet (Google)
Cabiedes: Google has 'enormous advantage' in AI — incumbent data, distribution, and capital moat
AI favors incumbents: Google (and Microsoft) possess structural advantages — compute, data, distribution, capital — that make it 'extraordinarily hostile' for startups; generalist models beat vertical specialists.
"hay una ventaja tan enorme para Microsoft y para Google, eh, y que se cuestiona o que algún loco puede cuestionar si Chat GPT puede seguir siendo competitivo en el futuro, ¿qué va…"
75:27
$OPENAI
OpenAI
Cabiedes warns ChatGPT could suffer 'Dropbox fate' — category creator displaced by platform incumbents
OpenAI risks sliding to marginality like Dropbox or Netscape: category creators often lose to platform incumbents who bundle competing features for free (Microsoft/Google); startups building vertical AI apps get crushed when generalist models absorb their functionality.
"el titular de hoy es que ojo en Nvidia que ya Google está muy cerca y hace unos meses era, ojo, Chat GPT, entonces si Chat GPT puede pasarle lo que a Dropbox que le puede pasar pe…"
75:27
$MSFT
···
Microsoft
Cabiedes: Microsoft holds 'enormous advantage' in AI via OpenAI partnership and enterprise distribution
Microsoft's OpenAI partnership and enterprise lock-in create insurmountable moat for AI startups; the 'generalist vs specialist' dynamic favors Big Tech platforms.
"hay una ventaja tan enorme para Microsoft y para Google, eh, y que se cuestiona o que algún loco puede cuestionar si Chat GPT puede seguir siendo competitivo en el futuro, ¿qué va…"
75:27