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▶ 32:00 · Private Markets · Cabiedes: private equity is the better-built model, shifting to buyouts of profitable SMEs

now playing · Private Markets

Venture Capitaltailwindscore 8/10luis martin cabiedes

Cabiedes: Investment discipline > stock picking — vintage diversification, phased capital, no rescue financing, sell early

Success comes from portfolio discipline: diversify across vintages, phase capital with a small first cheque and follow-ons only on metrics, never rescue a failing company, and sell at the f…

Venture Capitalheadwindscore 9/10luis martin cabiedes

Cabiedes: VC returns run inverse to inflows — record investment, record-low expected returns

Academic research shows vintage-year returns are inversely correlated with capital deployed; 2009-2012 vintages outperformed because little capital chased deals, while 2019-2022 vintages fa…

Private Marketstailwindscore 8/10luis martin cabiedes

Cabiedes: private equity is the better-built model, shifting to buyouts of profitable SMEs

PE generates larger personal fortunes for GPs thanks to lower risk, cash-flow visibility and control. Cabiedes now runs private equity in miniature, buying majority stakes in companies with…

Government Technologyheadwindscore 8/10luis martin cabiedes

Cabiedes: public funding distorts VC — go the opposite way from where public money goes

Public money (NextGen EU, CDTI) flows to low-impact sectors (food delivery, ride-hailing) and charges high management fees (€60-80M/yr on €3-4B); only ~€12-13M of €4B went to deep tech tran…

AI Economics & Business Modelsheadwindscore 9/10luis martin cabiedes

Cabiedes: AI favours incumbents and generalists, leaving founders an extraordinarily hostile environment

Structural advantages (compute, data, distribution, capital) accrue to Google/Microsoft; generalist models (ChatGPT) absorb vertical specialist value (legal, news, coding) within months. St…

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