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$GOOGL · Cabiedes: Google has 'enormous advantage' in AI — incumbent data, distribution, and capital moat
now playing · $GOOGL
$DEPORVILLAGEneutral· low· posluis martin cabiedes
Cabiedes wrote off Deporvillage, then COVID tailwind drove exit: 'le vino Dios a ver'
Deporvillage was written off after 3 years; COVID lockdowns created massive online sports demand and perfect exit timing — outcome driven by exogenous luck, not original thesis.
$CABIFYbearish· mediumluis martin cabiedes
Cabiedes cites Cabify as another example of public money misallocation in ride-hailing
Cabify received significant public funds despite questionable unit economics; public capital distorts competitive dynamics in sectors that cannot absorb infinite capital efficient…
$GOOGL···bullish· mediumluis martin cabiedes
Cabiedes: Google has 'enormous advantage' in AI — incumbent data, distribution, and capital moat
AI favors incumbents: Google (and Microsoft) possess structural advantages — compute, data, distribution, capital — that make it 'extraordinarily hostile' for startups; generalist…
$MSFT···bullish· mediumluis martin cabiedes
Cabiedes: Microsoft holds 'enormous advantage' in AI via OpenAI partnership and enterprise distribution
Microsoft's OpenAI partnership and enterprise lock-in create insurmountable moat for AI startups; the 'generalist vs specialist' dynamic favors Big Tech platforms.
$OPENAIbearish· mediumluis martin cabiedes
Cabiedes warns ChatGPT could suffer 'Dropbox fate' — category creator displaced by platform incumbents
OpenAI risks sliding to marginality like Dropbox or Netscape: category creators often lose to platform incumbents who bundle competing features for free (Microsoft/Google); startu…