▶ 35:47 · $DEPORVILLAGE · Cabiedes wrote off Deporvillage, then COVID tailwind drove exit: 'le vino Dios a ver'

episode briefing

Luis Martín Cabiedes: 30 años de inversión sin filtros

2025-12-10 · 11 company · 5 thematic

sentiment

6 bull4 bear1 neu

speakers

Philosophy graduate turned investor; backed unicorns Privalia, Trovit, BlaBlaCar, Indexa Capital, Deporvillage, Habitissimo. Ran 21 Capital VC funds (Fund 3 ~3x DPI, Fund 4 marked by Indexa). Stopped VC fundraising in 2019, avoiding disastrous 2019-2022 vintages. Now runs Inversiones Caviedes doing entrepreneurial acquisitions (PE-style buyouts of profitable SMEs). Known for metrics-driven discipline, contrarian views on public funding, and skepticism on AI startup opportunities.

quote

“Yo la di de baja y 3 años más tarde pues viene una cosa, se llama el Covid, cierra todo el mundo y abre el tío la persiana y todo el mundo quiere comprar deporte online. Claro que es que es que el tío estaba haciendo Deporte Online, lo hac…”

—luis martin cabiedes

now playing · $DEPORVILLAGE

$INDEXA-CAPITALbullish· high· posluis martin cabiedes

Cabiedes calls Indexa the standout holding, worth 2.5x Fund 4 on low-fee disruption

Indexa's ultra-low fee model looked like a poor business, but founders Francois, Unai and Ramon executed exceptionally; it is now worth 2.5x the whole fund, validating a contraria…

$BLABLACARbullish· highluis martin cabiedes

Cabiedes admits missing BlaBlaCar at first, then invested on viral metrics

Initially dismissed as unpaid hitchhiking with no revenue, BlaBlaCar showed spectacular organic viral growth and cross-border demand, with French users seeking trips to Barcelona;…

$PRIVALIAbullish· highluis martin cabiedes

Cabiedes cites Privalia as the metrics-driven winner: raw demand beat operational chaos

Privalia showed explosive organic demand — any branded product at 40% off sold out instantly — proving product-market fit despite an operational mess; the numbers argued for buyin…

$OFERUMbearish· highluis martin cabiedes

Cabiedes: rival overfunding destroyed a viable Oferum — too much money ruined a good business

Four overfunded competitors burned capital on customer acquisition through Google and Facebook ads without expanding the market; capital inefficiency killed a good business, not p…

$DEPORVILLAGEneutral· low· posluis martin cabiedes

Cabiedes wrote off Deporvillage, then COVID tailwind drove exit: 'le vino Dios a ver'

Deporvillage was written off after 3 years; COVID lockdowns created massive online sports demand and perfect exit timing — outcome driven by exogenous luck, not original thesis.

$GLOVObearish· highluis martin cabiedes

Cabiedes attacks public funding of Glovo against 350M euros of penalties

Public money flowed to Glovo despite labour violations that drew EUR 350M in social security fines — a case of misallocation where the state funds a project and then penalises it,…

$CABIFYbearish· mediumluis martin cabiedes

Cabiedes cites Cabify as another example of public money misallocation in ride-hailing

Cabify received significant public funds despite questionable unit economics; public capital distorts competitive dynamics in sectors that cannot absorb infinite capital efficient…

$HABITISSIMObullish· highluis martin cabiedes

Cabiedes reinvested in Habitissimo round after round, but only on the metrics

Habitissimo delivered consistent metrics across multiple rounds. The discipline behind it: follow on only when the numbers validate, never on hope — as he puts it, he is not a cas…

$GOOGL···bullish· mediumluis martin cabiedes

Cabiedes: Google has 'enormous advantage' in AI — incumbent data, distribution, and capital moat

AI favors incumbents: Google (and Microsoft) possess structural advantages — compute, data, distribution, capital — that make it 'extraordinarily hostile' for startups; generalist…

$MSFT···bullish· mediumluis martin cabiedes

Cabiedes: Microsoft holds 'enormous advantage' in AI via OpenAI partnership and enterprise distribution

Microsoft's OpenAI partnership and enterprise lock-in create insurmountable moat for AI startups; the 'generalist vs specialist' dynamic favors Big Tech platforms.

$OPENAIbearish· mediumluis martin cabiedes

Cabiedes warns ChatGPT could suffer 'Dropbox fate' — category creator displaced by platform incumbents

OpenAI risks sliding to marginality like Dropbox or Netscape: category creators often lose to platform incumbents who bundle competing features for free (Microsoft/Google); startu…

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