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thomas kaplan

T2 · manager / operator

Founder and chairman of The Electrum Group, one of the world's largest privately held portfolios of gold and silver assets. Largest private collector of Rembrandt works. Founder of Panthera, global wild cat conservation nonprofit. PhD in Modern History from Oxford. Known for contrarian commodity bets: silver from $3.50, oil to $100, gold to $3,000-5,000+. Sold Leor Exploration to Encana for $2.55B in 2007. Controls NovaGold with John Paulson as partner.

3 calls·3 names·67% bull·last heard last year·Generating Alpha Podcast
track recordleaderboard →
hit rate
0%
avg alpha
-78.5pp
scored
1

top calls

highest conviction · one per company
1sthigh conviction
$NGNovaGold Resourcesposition

Kaplan controls NovaGold as white knight; Paulson invests $1B to exit Barrick

Kaplan took control of NovaGold before bankruptcy as a white knight, viewing the Donlin Gold project in Alaska as a crown jewel. John Paulson's $1B investment liberated them from a misaligned Barrick partnership, turning headwinds into tailwinds.

Generating Alpha Podcast2025-09episode →
2ndmedium conviction
$ELECTRUM-SILVERElectrum Group Silver Companiesposition

Two silver companies in Electrum portfolio slated for IPO next year

Kaplan states he has two silver companies that are going public next year, calling silver his 'first love' and indicating continued high conviction in the silver thesis despite the macro story never ending.

Generating Alpha Podcast2025-09episode →
3rdhigh conviction
$GOLDBarrick Gold

Barrick was a misaligned, maligned partner in NovaGold; now removed

Barrick attempted a hostile takeover of NovaGold at $16/share, lost, and remained a problematic partner. Kaplan describes the relationship as a 'bear hug' and 'maligned,' and celebrates its exit via Paulson's investment.

Generating Alpha Podcast2025-09episode →

most discussed · click a bar to filter

  • $NG
  • $ELECTRUM-SILVER
  • $GOLD

recurring themes

  • Gold & Silver as Strategic Monetary Assets1
  • Contrarian Investing / Maximum Pessimism1
  • Critical Minerals & Supply Chain1
  • Macro & Rates1
  • Energy & Power Generation1
3 total
$NG
···
NovaGold Resources
HIGHthomas kaplan·Generating Alpha Podcast·last year·Episode 35: Thomas Kaplan - Chairman and CIO of The Electrum Group· position
Kaplan controls NovaGold as white knight; Paulson invests $1B to exit Barrick
Kaplan took control of NovaGold before bankruptcy as a white knight, viewing the Donlin Gold project in Alaska as a crown jewel. John Paulson's $1B investment liberated them from a misaligned Barrick partnership, turning headwinds into tailwinds.
"the jewel in the crown was a company called NovaGold um which was developing with its partner Barrick the Donlin Gold project in Alaska... we effectively took control of the compa…"
30:02
$ELECTRUM-SILVER
Electrum Group Silver Companies
MEDthomas kaplan·Generating Alpha Podcast·last year·Episode 35: Thomas Kaplan - Chairman and CIO of The Electrum Group· position
Two silver companies in Electrum portfolio slated for IPO next year
Kaplan states he has two silver companies that are going public next year, calling silver his 'first love' and indicating continued high conviction in the silver thesis despite the macro story never ending.
"I have two silver companies that are going public next year. So, you know, I've always silver's my first love."
23:20
$GOLD
···
Barrick Gold
HIGHthomas kaplan·Generating Alpha Podcast·last year·Episode 35: Thomas Kaplan - Chairman and CIO of The Electrum Group
Barrick was a misaligned, maligned partner in NovaGold; now removed
Barrick attempted a hostile takeover of NovaGold at $16/share, lost, and remained a problematic partner. Kaplan describes the relationship as a 'bear hug' and 'maligned,' and celebrates its exit via Paulson's investment.
"the only bad one I ever had was one that I inherited uh and that was Barrick, and now that's gone, and all the headwinds that we had became tailwinds"
32:55
9
Gold & Silver as Strategic Monetary Assetstailwind
Gold entering massive bull market; $3K-5K target now exceeded, new target much higher
Kaplan predicted gold at $3,000-5,000/oz in 2007 when gold was ~$600. He now says we are in the 'foothills of a massive, massive bull market' and his price target has 'changed very considerably' higher. Gold and silver will be reclassified as strategic monetary assets, not commodities.
8
Contrarian Investing / Maximum Pessimismtailwind
Templeton's 'buy at maximum pessimism' drives Kaplan's cycle-based conviction
Kaplan adopts John Templeton's maxim to buy during periods of maximum pessimism. He seeks reversals with 10-100x potential (silver, platinum, oil) and waits years for 'metaphysical certitude' before going all in, using conviction to withstand washouts.
8
Critical Minerals & Supply Chainrisk
Nationalization risk rising; gold/silver will be seized as strategic assets in most jurisdictions
Kaplan warns that if his gold/silver thesis is correct, these metals will be nationalized in most jurisdictions as they become viewed as strategic monetary assets. He repatriated all holdings to US, Canada, Mexico (NAFTA/USMCA) to avoid this risk.
8
Macro & Ratestailwind
Soros: existential question is which currency to denominate in; Kaplan chose gold
Quoting George Soros, Kaplan says the existential question for an investor is the currency of denomination. He sold his energy company in 2007 to denominate in gold, viewing fiat as a Ponzi scheme. This macro view underpins his precious metals conviction.
7
Energy & Power Generationtailwind
Called oil to $100 from $18 in early 2000s; sold Leor at $2.55B top in 2007
When consensus saw oil at $12-15, Kaplan's analysis said $100. He built Leor Exploration, made a monster Texas gas discovery, sold to Encana for $2.55B in Nov 2007 — timing the top before the financial crisis and shale revolution changed the calculus.