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▶ 39:00 · Contrarian Investing / Maximum Pessimism · Templeton's 'buy at maximum pessimism' drives Kaplan's cycle-based conviction

now playing · Contrarian Investing / Maximum Pessimism

Energy & Power Generationtailwindscore 7/10thomas kaplan

Called oil to $100 from $18 in early 2000s; sold Leor at $2.55B top in 2007

When consensus saw oil at $12-15, Kaplan's analysis said $100. He built Leor Exploration, made a monster Texas gas discovery, sold to Encana for $2.55B in Nov 2007 — timing the top before t…

Contrarian Investing / Maximum Pessimismtailwindscore 8/10thomas kaplan

Templeton's 'buy at maximum pessimism' drives Kaplan's cycle-based conviction

Kaplan adopts John Templeton's maxim to buy during periods of maximum pessimism. He seeks reversals with 10-100x potential (silver, platinum, oil) and waits years for 'metaphysical certitud…

Critical Minerals & Supply Chainriskscore 8/10thomas kaplan

Nationalization risk rising; gold/silver will be seized as strategic assets in most jurisdictions

Kaplan warns that if his gold/silver thesis is correct, these metals will be nationalized in most jurisdictions as they become viewed as strategic monetary assets. He repatriated all holdin…

Macro & Ratestailwindscore 8/10thomas kaplan

Soros: existential question is which currency to denominate in; Kaplan chose gold

Quoting George Soros, Kaplan says the existential question for an investor is the currency of denomination. He sold his energy company in 2007 to denominate in gold, viewing fiat as a Ponzi…

Gold & Silver as Strategic Monetary Assetstailwindscore 9/10thomas kaplan

Gold entering massive bull market; $3K-5K target now exceeded, new target much higher

Kaplan predicted gold at $3,000-5,000/oz in 2007 when gold was ~$600. He now says we are in the 'foothills of a massive, massive bull market' and his price target has 'changed very consider…

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