henry ellenbogen

T2 · manager / operator

Henry Ellenbogen founded Durable Capital Partners after a long career at T. Rowe Price, where he managed the New Horizons Fund. He focuses on finding the ~1% of stocks (40 per decade) that compound at 20%+ for 10 years, investing across public and private markets with a 10-year horizon. Durable is known for holding companies from private rounds through public markets (DoorDash, Affirm, Toast, Duolingo, Figma).

10 calls·10 names·90% bull·last heard 8 months ago·Invest Like The Best
track recordleaderboard →
hit rate
0%
avg alpha
-36.6pp
scored
1

top calls

highest conviction · one per company
1sthigh conviction
$DASHDoorDashposition

DoorDash among Durable's largest public positions; led last private round and continued buying post-IPO

Durable led DoorDash's final private round and has held through public markets, adding on volatility. Physical logistics network (fulfillment centers, reconditioning) creates hard-to-replicate moat analogous to Amazon's 20-year cost deflation curve.

2ndhigh conviction
$AFRMAffirmposition

Affirm: Max Levchin (PayPal co-founder) as archetypal Act 2 entrepreneur; AI leaning out legal/compliance headcount

Max Levchin combines deep technical talent, recruiting magnetism, resilience, and leadership. Regulated fintech has high legal/compliance costs; AI enables growing revenue without adding headcount by automating contract monitoring, merchant communication. Durable led final private round and held public.

3rdhigh conviction
$FIGFigmaposition

Figma: Durable underwrote 2020, led 2021 round; same partner tracks from $30M ARR private to public

Durable's model enables tracking companies from early private ($2B val, $30M ARR) through IPO and beyond with same analyst (Katherine). Figma demonstrates purpose-built org structure: analysts cover both private early-stage and public durable growth, unlike traditional firms split by stage.

10 total
$DASH
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DoorDash
HIGHhenry ellenbogen·Invest Like The Best·8 months ago· position
DoorDash among Durable's largest public positions; led last private round and continued buying post-IPO
Durable led DoorDash's final private round and has held through public markets, adding on volatility. Physical logistics network (fulfillment centers, reconditioning) creates hard-to-replicate moat analogous to Amazon's 20-year cost deflation curve.
"among our largest positions in the public markets are Door Dash, Affirm, Toast. We led those last private rounds, right? And so yeah, they persisted and we kind of bought more rig…"
29:05
$AFRM
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Affirm
HIGHhenry ellenbogen·Invest Like The Best·8 months ago· position
Affirm: Max Levchin (PayPal co-founder) as archetypal Act 2 entrepreneur; AI leaning out legal/compliance headcount
Max Levchin combines deep technical talent, recruiting magnetism, resilience, and leadership. Regulated fintech has high legal/compliance costs; AI enables growing revenue without adding headcount by automating contract monitoring, merchant communication. Durable led final private round and held public.
"he's got great belief that a firm can grow at the rates it's growing at for a reasonable period of time. In addition, they can do it without adding headcount. And the reason for t…"
29:05
$FIG
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Figma
HIGHhenry ellenbogen·Invest Like The Best·8 months ago· position
Figma: Durable underwrote 2020, led 2021 round; same partner tracks from $30M ARR private to public
Durable's model enables tracking companies from early private ($2B val, $30M ARR) through IPO and beyond with same analyst (Katherine). Figma demonstrates purpose-built org structure: analysts cover both private early-stage and public durable growth, unlike traditional firms split by stage.
"my partner Katherine who when we first underwrote Figma in 2020 and also when we led the investment round in 21... is the same person who basically was at the all hands meeting wi…"
23:45
$FSV
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FirstService
HIGHhenry ellenbogen·Invest Like The Best·8 months ago· position
FirstService: Jay Hennick's human-capital culture and decentralized incentives compound across mundane verticals
No single sharp moat (data/network effects), but 40-year compounding at 20% via exceptional human capital culture: attracts/retains A-players, decentralizes incentives so operators act like owners, sells non-great businesses, buys aligned ones. Ellenbogen owns both FirstService and Colliers (Hennick chairs both).
"none of them actually have these super sharp competitive advantage but yet if you really have studied Jay and you truly understand his human capital culture and the and how he bas…"
64:30
$TOST
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Toast
MEDhenry ellenbogen·Invest Like The Best·8 months ago· position
Toast: led final private round; 2022 engagement with CEO Aman on path to profitability amid rate shock
Durable led Toast's last private round. In 2022, Ellenbogen directly engaged CEO Aman Narang with data showing only companies showing progress toward profitability survive positive real rates. Toast adapted; Durable held position.
"we had some version of this conversation with Aman at Toast, with Luis at Dualingo, you know, with Max at a firm... with Louise, you know, I had dinner with him and the CFO... I j…"
29:05
$CIGI
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Colliers International
HIGHhenry ellenbogen·Invest Like The Best·8 months ago· position
Colliers misunderstood as cyclical broker; actually strong asset manager (Harrison Street) and consulting platform
Jay Hennick (Act 2 entrepreneur, founded FirstService) builds durable businesses via decentralized incentives, sharp capital allocation, and partnership model. Harrison Street (real estate asset management) and emerging consulting platform provide recurring, non-cyclical earnings. Bought aggressively on 2023 selloff driven by short-cycle macro fears.
"I think for sure the brand suggests it's a commercial real estate broker and commercial real estate brokers don't do well in general when interest rates are high. But I think what…"
29:55
$CVNA
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Carvana
MEDhenry ellenbogen·Invest Like The Best·8 months ago· position
Carvana reconditioning centers as physical moat: hard to replicate land, capex, network, operating culture
Physical reconditioning centers require land acquisition, strategic placement, capex, systems, and operating culture — 'super messy' to replicate. Wrong location increases transport costs. Durable is invested.
"I love their reconditioning centers because at the end of the day, you can't spin those things up. You got to acquire the land. You got to put in the right place. You got to build…"
61:45
$WDAY
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Workday
Workday: Act 2 team (PeopleSoft founders) leveraged cloud to rebuild HR system of record with exception management
Aneel Bhusri and Dave Duffield (PeopleSoft founders) brought deep domain knowledge of 'exception management' at scale to cloud architecture. Invested at ~$100M revenue ($2B val) in 2012 when cloud thesis was non-obvious. Act 2 advantage: same problem, total clarity, aligned org/investors from day one.
"this was an act 2 team. There's a bunch of the stuff you have to build into the product that for lack of a better word is uh exception management. And if you don't understand that…"
17:10
$SPCX
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SpaceX
SpaceX may never need to go public; indefinite private path viable for elite companies
Ellenbogen acknowledges SpaceX could stay private indefinitely given Elon Musk's control and capital access. Private markets now support $100B+ valuations for loss-making growth companies. However, he argues public markets impose discipline (growth + profitability + innovation) that builds more durable cultures long-term.
"maybe Elon is correct and SpaceX never has to go public and that's that's really only happened in the last 5 years and some people correctly pointed out that for this might be an…"
98:25
$DUOL
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Duolingo
HIGHhenry ellenbogen·Invest Like The Best·8 months ago· position
Ellenbogen details Duolingo as largest holding: AI-native founder, 20x content velocity, chess product at 1M+ DAUs
Luis von Ahn (ex-CMU AI head) combines technical depth with business clarity; AI enables 20x faster product development (chess built in 9 months by 6 people vs 4-6x people/4x time historically), driving new revenue streams while core language app compounds. Discount rate rose in 2022 but opportunity set expanded equally.
"Luis has talked about being 20x faster and generating content and we've already seen it. He developed chess, which is doing incredibly well... first it was two people for six mont…"
50:45