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▶ 98:00 · Venture Capital · Private markets now support indefinite private life for elite firms; but public markets impose superior discipline for durable compounding
episode briefing
Invest Like The Best

Finding The 1% of Stocks That Matter | Henry Ellenbogen Interview

2025-12-16 · 10 company · 5 thematic
sentiment
9 bull0 bear1 neu
speakers
henry ellenbogen

Henry Ellenbogen founded Durable Capital Partners after a long career at T. Rowe Price, where he managed the New Horizons Fund. He focuses on finding the ~1% of stocks (40 per decade) that compound at 20%+ for 10 years, investing across public and private markets with a 10-year horizon. Durable is known for holding companies from private rounds through public markets (DoorDash, Affirm, Toast, Duolingo, Figma).

now playing · Venture Capital
Public Markets & Valuationtailwindscore 8/10henry ellenbogen
Short-cycle capital (1-3 month horizons) creates structural volatility; Durable exploits via 10-year horizon and deep business knowledge
80-90% of institutional flow driven by multi-manager platforms (Citadel, Millennium) with monthly risk cuts and quant models optimized for short-term signals. Result: earnings volatility hi…
AI Applicationstailwindscore 9/10henry ellenbogen
AI as 'Digital Kaizen': leaning out white-collar/IP processes across 70% of economy, not just tech
Just as China cost forced product companies to optimize supply chains (1990s-2010s), AI forces every IP/white-collar-intensive business to lean out human processes. Winners gain 30%+ increm…
AI Economics & Business Modelsmixedscore 8/10henry ellenbogen
AI raises discount rates for at-risk incumbents but expands opportunity sets for AI-native operators — net neutral to positive for adaptable
Market correctly prices disruption risk (Duolingo drops on OpenAI/Apple demos). But same AI enables incumbents with strong culture (Luis, Max) to accelerate product velocity 4-20x, enter ne…
Robotics & Physical AItailwindscore 8/10henry ellenbogen
Robotics at cost parity today; general-purpose LLMs drive 15-20%+ annual cost deflation — Amazon-style power law
Certain robotics use cases already below human labor cost. Unlike prior automation, general-purpose models (not task-specific) power robotics, riding geometric cost curves (15-20%/yr vs 3-5…
Venture Capitalmixedscore 7/10henry ellenbogen
Private markets now support indefinite private life for elite firms; but public markets impose superior discipline for durable compounding
Private capital abundance allows $100B+ private valuations (SpaceX model). Avoids short-cycle marks but risks cultural stasis. Public markets force 'and' business (growth + profitability +…