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$DUOL

Duolingo
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Duolingo operates a freemium learning platform spanning languages, math, music, chess, and English proficiency testing.

sentiment mix
bull 100%bear 0%neu 0%

signal summary

latest high-conviction thesis
Ellenbogen details Duolingo as largest holding: AI-native founder, 20x content velocity, chess product at 1M+ DAUs▾

Luis von Ahn (ex-CMU AI head) combines technical depth with business clarity; AI enables 20x faster product development (chess built in 9 months by 6 people vs 4-6x people/4x time historically), driving new revenue streams while core language app compounds. Discount rate rose in 2022 but opportunity set expanded equally.

henry ellenbogenT1Invest Like The Best2025-12-16
confidence 88 / 100impact High
key themes
  • AI Economics & Business Models48%
  • AI Applications35%
  • Public Markets & Valuation33%
  • AI Infrastructure22%
  • AI in Healthcare20%

bull thesis · 48

90 / 100
  • •Long Duolingo at lows: green machine compounding engagement market misses
  • •Duolingo flagged as singularity asymmetry: FCF/share accelerating while stock down 80%
  • •Duolingo at 16x forward FCF with AI-accelerated content expansion toward $700M EBITDA target

bear thesis · 0

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  • — none —

company research · 7 videos

mentions · 48

Antonio LinaresI called palantir at $7 and amd at $4.2. this is next1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 10 days ago
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Antonio Linaresbigger than amd at $4.2 and palantir at $71 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 2 months ago
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Antonio Linaresmy next stock picks after AMD and Palantir1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 3 months ago
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Asymmetric Investing3 Hidden AI Revolution Stocks to Buy Now1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 3 months ago
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Antonio Linaresbiology stocks are the next frontier 1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 3 months ago
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Asymmetric InvestingDuolingo Is On Fire! What's Next?1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 4 months ago
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Antonio Linareswe have to talk about hims and duolingo...1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 4 months ago
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Asymmetric InvestingThe 7 Stocks I'm Buying Before They Explode2 mentions · 2▲ 0▼ 0○ · 4 months ago
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Asymmetric InvestingUnleashing 10x Growth: Top 6 Stocks to Watch1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 5 months ago
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Antonio Linaresduolingo is quietly becoming something else1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 5 months ago
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Asymmetric Investing7 SaaS Stocks Too Cheap to Pass Up1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 5 months ago
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Asymmetric InvestingAsymmetric Investing April AMA1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 5 months ago
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Antonio Linaresthis is bigger than AMD at $41 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 5 months ago
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Antonio Linaresthe investor who called palantir at $7 is now buying peptides1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 6 months ago
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Asymmetric InvestingI Just Bought More Duolingo Stock | $DUOL1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 6 months ago
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Asymmetric InvestingDuolingo's Stock Crash & The Bull Case Nobody's Talking About | $DUOL1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 7 months ago
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Antonio LinaresUrgent Warning to Duolingo Investors: The Opportunity of a Lifetime is Coming.1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 7 months ago
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Antonio LinaresNvidia and AMD Just Did the Unthinkable: A Massive Event is Coming in 2026.1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 7 months ago
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Antonio LinaresHims: A Once in A Lifetime Event is Coming in 2026.1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 7 months ago
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Antonio LinaresHistory is About to Be Made (Emergency Update)1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 7 months ago
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Antonio LinaresThe Secret Tech Shift That Will Kill 90% of Software Companies1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 7 months ago
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Antonio LinaresThe AI Stock Collapse Will Make Billionaires.1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 8 months ago
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Antonio LinaresDuolingo is Dead...1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 8 months ago
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Antonio LinaresGoing All In On Palantir, Hims and Duolingo w/Christian Darnton2 mentions · 2▲ 0▼ 0○ · 8 months ago
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Antonio LinaresThe Market is Wrong About Hims (Again)1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 8 months ago
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Antonio LinaresWe Have to Talk About Palantir Very Seriously... And is Duolingo A Mistake?1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 8 months ago
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Antonio LinaresHow I Invested in Palantir, AMD and Tesla Early1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 8 months ago
0:006:0012:0018:0025:00
Antonio LinaresAMD Lisa is the Best Non-Founder CEO, The AI Bubble, Hims Is the Future of Healthcare w/ Thomas1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 8 months ago
0:0013:0027:0041:0055:00
Antonio LinaresNuclear Energy, US Manufacturing and Building Conviction w/Harrison1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 8 months ago
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Antonio LinaresIt's Time to Talk About Duolingo...1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 8 months ago
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Antonio LinaresHims Is Only Getting Started...1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 9 months ago
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Antonio LinaresBetting My Entire Net Worth On Palantir, AMD, Hims, Duolingo, Tesla And...1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 9 months ago
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Antonio LinaresHims and Duolingo are Trillion Dollar Companies in the Making1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 9 months ago
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Antonio LinaresHow This Millionaire Retail Investor Went from $28K to $2M in the Stock Market1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 9 months ago
0:0013:0027:0041:0055:00
Invest Like The BestFinding The 1% of Stocks That Matter | Henry Ellenbogen Interview1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 9 months ago
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Antonio Linares“A Silent Breakthrough Is Brewing… Watch This Space.”1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 10 months ago
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Antonio LinaresDuolingo’s Revenge: The 70%+ Collapse That Won’t Age Well.1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 10 months ago
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Antonio LinaresHow to Make 25X Your Money In the Stock Market: Early Palantir Investor Explains.1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 10 months ago
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Antonio Linares"This Crash Will Make Millionaires": MUST WATCH for Hims and Duolingo Shareholders.1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 11 months ago
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Antonio LinaresDuolingo Ruined My Reputation.1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 11 months ago
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Antonio Linares"We've Been in a Bear Market for The Past 3 Years."1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 11 months ago
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Antonio Linares"Michael Burry is WRONG About AI Stocks"1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 11 months ago
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Antonio Linares"Value Investors Will Stay Poor": Why They're Wrong About AI Stocks.1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 11 months ago
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Antonio LinaresI Could Bet my Grandma on Duolingo Right now.1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 11 months ago
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Antonio LinaresNot Buying IREN Was a Mistake.1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 11 months ago
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Antonio Linares"Amazon, Palantir and Duolingo Stock Will Make MILLIONAIRES"1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 11 months ago
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