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david frankel

T2 · manager / operator

David Frankel is a co-founder and partner at Founder Collective, a seed-stage venture firm with 18 years of investing. He led early investments in Uber, PillPack, SeatGeek, Shield AI, Suno, Whoop, Trade Desk, Coupang, and Olo. He emphasizes founder-first investing, ownership discipline, and long hold periods.

38 calls·26 names·42% bull·last heard 2 months ago·20VC
track record

no scored calls yet — needs a stated position or a categorical verdict, with a matured window vs SPY

top calls

highest conviction · one per company
1sthigh conviction
$SUNOSunoposition

Frankel backs Suno as potential Spotify disruptor

Deeply involved from seed; believes Suno's consumer music product can transition from creation tool to consumption platform disrupting Spotify/Apple Music.

20VC2026-08episode →
2ndhigh conviction
$SHIELD-AIShield AIposition

Frankel's early Shield AI investment reinforces US defense-AI urgency

Frankel cited his role in Shield AI's first institutional check and argued that the United States needs defense AI because adversaries have powerful capabilities, highlighting his concern about Chinese open models.

20VC2026-08episode →
3rdhigh conviction
$FOUNDER-COLLECTIVEFounder Collectiveposition

Frankel: GP largest LP aligns incentives for DPI over fees

GP as largest LP creates alignment for distributed proceeds (DPI) not management fees; discipline maintained despite pressure to raise larger funds.

20VC2026-08episode →

most discussed · click a bar to filter

  • $OLO
  • $SUNO
  • $SHIELD-AI
  • $ELEVENLABS
  • $WIX

recurring themes

  • AI Applications4
  • Defense Tech2
  • Robotics & Physical AI2
  • Venture Capital2
  • AI Bubble / Capex Debate2
38 total
$OLO
···
Olo
MEDdavid frankel·20VC·2 months ago·The AI Boom Will Create Enormous Roadkill: Who Wins & Loses? | David Frankel
Frankel reflects on Olo 17-year journey to $2B exit
Thoma Bravo take-private at $2B after 17 years yielded modest IRR but extraordinary founder journey and board experience.
"Noah is one of the great awesome human dude. It's 17-year journey to a 2 billion exit... The journey and the fun of it was just enormous. So being involved with Noah... was just t…"
81:00
$AIRTABLE
Airtable
MEDdavid frankel·20VC·2 months ago·The AI Boom Will Create Enormous Roadkill: Who Wins & Loses? | David Frankel
Frankel warns Airtable cannibalization has started
AI-driven innovation cycles are compressing SaaS lifecycles; Airtable faces cannibalization before liquidity events can occur.
"cannibalization has already started. It's like the innovation cycle's taken steroids and gone too quickly to allow liquidity events to even happen."
42:10
$A16Z
Andreessen Horowitz
MEDdavid frankel·20VC·2 months ago·The AI Boom Will Create Enormous Roadkill: Who Wins & Loses? | David Frankel
Frankel: a16z returns impressive but post-2020 DPI unproven
a16z's large funds returned well historically but post-2020 vintages show TVPI without DPI; sovereign wealth LPs prioritize IRR over multiples.
"Thrive or A16Z, they've had some big funds that have returned very very well. A little less since 2020. Like if you look at the DPI analysis, like the jury's out from 2020 onwards."
27:45
$THRIVE
Thrive Capital
MEDdavid frankel·20VC·2 months ago·The AI Boom Will Create Enormous Roadkill: Who Wins & Loses? | David Frankel
Frankel: Thrive/a16z returns impressive but post-2020 DPI unproven
Multi-stage platforms returned well historically but post-2020 vintages show TVPI without DPI; sovereign wealth LPs prioritize IRR over multiples.
"Thrive or A16Z, they've had some big funds that have returned very very well. A little less since 2020. Like if you look at the DPI analysis, like the jury's out from 2020 onwards."
27:45
$SUNO
Suno
HIGHdavid frankel·20VC·2 months ago·The AI Boom Will Create Enormous Roadkill: Who Wins & Loses? | David Frankel· position
Frankel backs Suno as potential Spotify disruptor
Deeply involved from seed; believes Suno's consumer music product can transition from creation tool to consumption platform disrupting Spotify/Apple Music.
"the folks investing at that level are going this is a Spotify disruptor that this is that Spotify and Apple Music. It's a big bet that you got to go from creation tool to consumpt…"
82:53
$SHIELD-AI
Shield AI
HIGHdavid frankel·20VC·2 months ago·The AI Boom Will Create Enormous Roadkill: Who Wins & Loses? | David Frankel· position
Frankel's early Shield AI investment reinforces US defense-AI urgency
Frankel cited his role in Shield AI's first institutional check and argued that the United States needs defense AI because adversaries have powerful capabilities, highlighting his concern about Chinese open models.
"having been very very early the first check in shield AI and watching how that's played out. The US needs it. Like our our enemies have access to all of that on steroids. I I'm te…"
74:47
$ELEVENLABS
Eleven Labs
MEDdavid frankel·20VC·2 months ago·The AI Boom Will Create Enormous Roadkill: Who Wins & Loses? | David Frankel
Frankel regrets passing Eleven Labs over ownership discipline
Ownership discipline (1-2% target) caused passes on Eleven Labs, Granola, StarCloud, Fractile — hundreds of millions in lost returns.
"Our biggest mistake and I can look at deal 11 Labs. I can look at Granola. And StarCloud, Fractile could have done them all, but would have had 1 to 2%. And all of them we turned…"
29:00
$WIX
···
Wix
MEDdavid frankel·20VC·2 months ago·The AI Boom Will Create Enormous Roadkill: Who Wins & Loses? | David Frankel
Frankel flags Wix at 1x revenue as market irrationality
Wix trading at 2.1B market cap on 2.1B revenue exemplifies irrational pricing that cannot be fought; don't fight the tide.
"Wix today trading at 2.1 billion on 2.1 billion of revenue, it's a great example where like there's obvious irrationality at play, but it doesn't matter. The market's the market."
26:53
$GOOGL
···
Google
HIGHdavid frankel·20VC·2 months ago·The AI Boom Will Create Enormous Roadkill: Who Wins & Loses? | David Frankel
Frankel calls Google net AI winner in pole position
Google's search-with-context capability and AI-native DNA put it in pole position versus Microsoft's second-rate AI execution.
"No, I don't. I think Google's a net winner. I think Google is actually if anything in pole position because they come from that environment and the ability to search with context…"
64:36
$SIMILE
Simile
MEDdavid frankel·20VC·2 months ago·The AI Boom Will Create Enormous Roadkill: Who Wins & Loses? | David Frankel
Frankel highlights Simile simulation markets for enterprise
Enterprises will spend $100-200M on single model outputs for critical decisions (P&G, Coca-Cola, Nvidia, Visa, governments).
"companies spend 100 to 200 million on one model kind of result because that model result is so important like the output of one query... PNG, uh, Coca-Cola, Nvidia, uh, Visa, you…"
71:17
9
Defense Techtailwind
Shield AI validates defense AI; Chinese open models threaten US lead
First-check conviction in Shield AI; US defense requires AI autonomy as Chinese open models advance rapidly; disruption of OpenAI/Anthropic likely from China.
8
Robotics & Physical AItailwind
Applied AI on commoditized hardware (drones, sensors) is the defensible moat
All physical hardware — drones, cameras, sensors — is now commoditized ($20-50 drones); the sustainable value is the AI software layer that enables autonomy (Shield AI model), making 'physical AI' the investable theme, not the hardware.
8
AI Applicationstailwind
Vertical AI edge from childhood domain immersion
Founders with lifelong vertical exposure (HVAC, pharmacy, audio) possess unrecognized edge; AI automates grunt work while vertical knowledge drives sales and trust.
8
AI Applicationstailwind
Vertical AI 'nepo babies' with generational domain edge will win service markets
Founders who grew up in vertical industries (HVAC, pharmacy, music) have irreducible edge — they see workflows AI cannot yet replicate; these 'vertical nepo babies' (Rebar, PillPack, Suno) build sticky AI applications that generic horizontal AI cannot displace.
8
Venture Capitaltailwind
Secondary markets liquid for top 100; sell 20% to lock DPI early
Top-100 private names offer efficient secondary liquidity at small discounts or premiums; selling 20% to return 25% of new fund capital beats waiting 6+ years for IPO+lockup.
8
Robotics & Physical AItailwind
Physical AI: commoditized hardware + AI software = 10-year head start needed
Shield AI model — drones/cameras commoditized, value in AI layer; must invest 5-10 years before momentum, not during hype cycle.
8
AI Bubble / Capex Debaterisk
Another dot-com crash inevitable; timing unknown but boom-bust cycle certain
AI wave will produce massive roadkill (95% failure) like prior cycles; capital gains will recycle into venture/angel investing, bypassing traditional funds.
8
AI Geopolitics & Export Controlsrisk
China's open models and regulatory speed are a terrifying competitive threat
China's open-source AI models are rapidly closing the gap; combined with minimal regulatory friction and massive state R&D spending, China could disrupt the current US AI incumbents (OpenAI, Anthropic) faster than they can establish moats.