Sports rights inflation driven by tech bidders (Amazon/Apple) will capture excess returns from leagues, not networks
ESPN's affiliate fee model ($9.42/sub) is in structural decline: cord cutting accelerates, fee increases no longer offset sub losses (post-2023), and tech companies with superior consumer monetization (Prime, ecosystem) outbid for rights. Monday Night Football rights rose from $1.1B (2006) to $2.7B (2021). Long-term, leagues (NFL/NBA) capture the economic rent; networks become pass-through utilities. NFL's 10% ESPN stake aligns incentives but doesn't reverse physics.