Former trader and risk manager who grew up in Lebanon; co-founded Kalshi in 2018 to build a regulated 'everything exchange' for event contracts. Led the company through a multi-year regulatory battle including suing the CFTC and winning, achieving 95% US election market share. Mission-driven founder who views the company as a vehicle for the idea rather than an end in itself.
no scored calls yet — needs a stated position or a categorical verdict, with a matured window vs SPY
Compute is becoming the world's largest commodity; derivative markets historically reach 10-15x underlying spot volume, so GPU futures could surpass Treasury futures as compute spend grows 10x to $10T+ by 2030, with prediction markets uniquely suited to price discovery.
Tony Xu's operational discipline and execution at DoorDash is among the best in the industry, particularly impressive given the inherent difficulty of the marketplace logistics business.
Polymarket's offshore unregulated model and recent Wall Street Journal/Congressional scrutiny create negative spillover for the whole prediction market category, making it harder for regulated players like Kalshi to differentiate and educate the public.