Sell-side analyst covering software sector; holds outperform rating on Oracle with $248 price target; identifies cracks in Adobe's freemium transition.
no scored calls yet — needs a stated position or a categorical verdict, with a matured window vs SPY
Forward indicators deteriorating: RPO fell quarter-over-quarter (rare for Q3), net new ARR dropped nearly 40% YoY, core creative apps slowed to ~8% growth; freemium strategy prioritizing free users (1B+) at expense of near-term revenue and ARR.
Oracle's cloud infrastructure growth (121% YoY) and $664B RPO backlog support 25-30% earnings CAGR; OpenAI's $300B commitment and $10B customer prepayments de-risk capital intensity, with free cash flow inflection expected in FY29.