TickerTain
TickerTain
NewsroomShortsPortfolioConvergence
NewsroomShortsPortfolioConvergence
←

$ADBE

Adobe
···
sign in to save

Adobe provides software solutions for creative professionals, including graphic design and video editing tools.

sentiment mix
bull 59%bear 36%neu 5%

signal summary

latest high-conviction thesis
Marketo in terminal decay, renewal cycles collapsing to days▾

Adobe's Marketo marketing automation is going to zero — no net new logos, 20% price hikes, API deprecation; Salesforce's LLM lift reduced switching time from one year to one day, accelerating churn.

jason lemkinT320VC2026-07-16
confidence 66 / 100impact High
key themes
  • SaaS Business Models53%
  • AI Infrastructure47%
  • AI Economics & Business Models47%
  • AI Applications41%
  • Enterprise Software29%

bull thesis · 13

62 / 100
  • •Adobe at 8x earnings: stickier than ServiceNow, potential no-brainer buy
  • •Adobe can command premium pricing through AI-enhanced products
  • •Adobe: Contrarian bet at 10.8x forward P/E with sticky pro user base and AI pricing optionality

bear thesis · 8

49 / 100
  • •BNP Paribas sees cracks in Adobe: RPO declined QoQ, net new ARR down 40% YoY as freemium push sacrifices near-term growth
  • •Situational Awareness fund levered short Adobe on AI disruption thesis
  • •Situational Awareness fund runs 2x levered short Adobe as AI disrupts creative software

mentions · 22

Bloomberg TechOracle’s Cloud Growth; Debate Around AI Risks1 mentions · 0▲ 1▼ 0○ · 14 days ago
0:003:007:0011:0015:00
The InformationAnthropic’s Enterprise AI Venture Buys Consultancy, The New Under-the-Radar Prediction Exchange1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · last month
0:0010:0020:0030:0040:00
TBPNZuck's AI Future, PE Boyfriends, AI Hacks Gym, SpaceX Moons2 mentions · 0▲ 2▼ 0○ · 2 months ago
0:0018:0037:0056:001:15:00
All-In PodcastGoogle’s AI Brain Drain, SpaceX's Huge Quarter, Airtable’s 90% Collapse, US Data Fuels China AI1 mentions · 0▲ 0▼ 1○ · 2 months ago
0:0017:0035:0052:001:10:00
Asymmetric InvestingAsk Me Anything: July 2026 Edition2 mentions · 2▲ 0▼ 0○ · 2 months ago
0:0020:0040:001:00:001:20:00
20VCMeta Takes on OpenAI | Apple Sues OpenAI | SK Hynix’s $26BN IPO1 mentions · 0▲ 1▼ 0○ · 2 months ago
0:0022:0045:001:07:001:30:00
20VCAnthropic's Fable Banned by US Government | Wix & Adobe Hit All-Time Lows | Mistral Raising at $20BN3 mentions · 0▲ 3▼ 0○ · 3 months ago
0:0021:0042:001:03:001:25:00
Asymmetric InvestingIs Adobe Stock Too Cheap to Pass Up?1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 3 months ago
0:002:005:007:0010:00
NVIDIAAnnouncing NVIDIA RTX Spark | GTC Taipei 2026 Keynote by CEO Jensen Huang1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 4 months ago
0:003:007:0011:0015:00
itnigKREA.AI: la startup de IA con más de 30 millones de usuarios | itnig podcast1 mentions · 0▲ 1▼ 0○ · 5 months ago
0:002:005:007:0010:00
Asymmetric Investing5 Stocks I Love in May2 mentions · 2▲ 0▼ 0○ · 5 months ago
0:003:007:0011:0015:00
Asymmetric Investing7 SaaS Stocks Too Cheap to Pass Up1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 5 months ago
0:006:0012:0018:0025:00
Asymmetric InvestingIs It Time to Buy Adobe Stock?| $ADBE1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 6 months ago
0:003:007:0011:0015:00
In Good Company with Nicolai TangenDylan Field - CEO of Figma | Podcast | In Good Company | Norges Bank Investment Management1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 8 months ago
0:0013:0027:0041:0055:00
Antonio Linares"We've Been in a Bear Market for The Past 3 Years."1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 11 months ago
0:003:007:0011:0015:00
Invest Like The Best5 Ingredients for the Perfect Investment | Jeff Horing Interview1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · last year
0:0027:0055:001:22:001:50:00
The Logan Bartlett ShowBret Taylor: A New Class of Software Winners1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · last year
0:007:0015:0022:0030:00