scott nolan

The US lost all commercial enrichment capacity by 2013 and now imports HALEU from Russia; domestic centrifuge enrichment (General Matter) with DOE milestone funding and NRC fast-track licensing (12-month target) is the keystone to unlock SMR deployment at scale by 2030.

China tripled grid capacity since 2010 (now 3x US) while US flatlined due to deindustrialization; AI data centers, EVs, and manufacturing reshoring reversing trend; need 'vertical' grid expansion; nuclear critical for cost-competitive baseload to enable energy-intensive industries (aluminum, steel) return to US.

US nuclear at 18.7% of grid can grow significantly; HALEU (19.75% enriched uranium) enrichment is critical bottleneck — currently only Russia supplies; three reactor segments (micro, SMR, gigawatt) all needed; executive orders creating regulatory tailwind (NRC 12-month fuel cycle license); deployment ramp 2028-2030; cost target 3¢/kWh (1960s level in today's dollars) enables aluminum/steel reshoring.

US grid capacity stagnant at ~4,500 TWh since 2010 while China reached 3x; AI data centers, EV adoption, and manufacturing reshoring demand massive new baseload power; nuclear (currently 18.7% of US grid) is only scalable carbon-free solution; cost of power (not just quantity) determines competitiveness of aluminum, steel, and compute production.

US has zero commercial enrichment capacity; Russia supplies ~25% of enriched uranium. 2028 import ban creates hard supply cliff for both HALEU (advanced reactors) and LEU (existing fleet). Building domestic enrichment (General Matter) captures the highest-value, most constrained step in the fuel cycle.

China went from parity with US in 2010 to 3x US grid capacity today, adding a Texas-worth of generation annually; US reindustrialization and AI data center demand now require vertical grid growth after 15 years of stagnation.

Historical nuclear achieved ~3 cents/kWh (2024$) with massive bespoke construction; factory-produced SMRs and microreactors with learning-curve economics should structurally undercut that, enabling energy-intensive manufacturing (aluminum, steel) to reshore.

Every major hyperscaler planning gigawatt-scale data centers for the 2030s is centering nuclear as the baseload solution; this demand pull is accelerating reactor deployment timelines and creating guaranteed offtake for enrichment.