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saam motamedi

T2 · manager / operator

Leads early-stage investing in AI, cybersecurity, and fintech at Greylock; backed Airbnb, Facebook, and early AI leaders like Baseten and Crust AI; currently deploying Fund XVIII across model, infrastructure, and application layers.

11 calls·7 names·82% bull·last heard 2 months ago·Bloomberg Tech
track record

no scored calls yet — needs a stated position or a categorical verdict, with a matured window vs SPY

top calls

highest conviction · one per company
1sthigh conviction
$GREYLOCKGreylock Partnersposition

Saam Motamedi: Greylock raises $1.5B Fund 18 for early-stage AI, cybersecurity, fintech across three layers

Fund 18 targets model layer (new data domains), infrastructure layer (entire stack rewritten around agents, agent cloud gate), and application layer (proliferation now that long-running agents work); six months into models powering agents, seeing amazing results from portfolio companies like Resolve AI.

Bloomberg Tech2026-07episode →
2ndhigh conviction
$ANTHROPICAnthropicposition

Greylock backs Anthropic as full-stack AI leader with fastest-growing revenue in history

Anthropic is a full-stack AI company with significant and rapidly growing revenue from first-party products like Claude Code and Claude Tag, not just model licensing; Greylock invested in Series F and later rounds.

Bloomberg Tech2026-07episode →
3rdmedium conviction
$MOONSHOT-AIMoonshot

Saam Motamedi: Moonshot Kimi K3 impressive but market reaction premature; token cost focus misses task cost reality

Kimi K3 shows interesting efficiency techniques but uses more tokens per task than OpenAI/Anthropic models; benchmarks are imperfect and real-world performance needs time to percolate; Anthropic and OpenAI are full-stack companies with significant first-party revenue.

Bloomberg Tech2026-07episode →

most discussed · click a bar to filter

  • $MOONSHOT-AI
  • $ANTHROPIC
  • $RESOLVE-AI
  • $GREYLOCK
  • $CRESTA-AI

recurring themes

  • AI Agents2
  • AI Economics & Business Models1
  • Venture Capital1
  • AI Infrastructure1
  • AI Bubble / Capex Debate1
11 total
$MOONSHOT-AI
Moonshot
MEDsaam motamedi·Bloomberg Tech·2 months ago·China's Moonshot, Netflix's Slump & Greylock's $1.5B Bet | Bloomberg Tech 7/17/2026
Saam Motamedi: Moonshot Kimi K3 impressive but market reaction premature; token cost focus misses task cost reality
Kimi K3 shows interesting efficiency techniques but uses more tokens per task than OpenAI/Anthropic models; benchmarks are imperfect and real-world performance needs time to percolate; Anthropic and OpenAI are full-stack companies with significant first-party revenue.
"I WOULD START BY SAYING IT WAS AN AMAZING RELEASE YESTERDAY. LARGEST TO BE RELEASED, 2.8 BILLION PARAMETERS. THEY SHOWED A LOT OF INTERESTING TECHNIQUES FROM AN EFFICIENCY PERSPEC…"
36:46
$ANTHROPIC
Anthropic
HIGHsaam motamedi·Bloomberg Tech·2 months ago·China's Moonshot, Netflix's Slump & Greylock's $1.5B Bet | Bloomberg Tech 7/17/2026
Saam Motamedi: Anthropic and OpenAI are full-stack AI companies with fastest revenue growth in history
Anthropic and OpenAI have significant revenues from first-party products (Claude Code, Claude Tag) not just model APIs; they are full-stack companies with multiple modes, making pure model-level price competition from Moonshot incomplete analysis.
"I THINK BOTH ANTHROPIC AND OPENAI HAVE MULTIPLE MODES. THEY HAVE SIGNIFICANT REVENUES. THESE ARE THE FASTEST GROWING COMPANIES IN HUMAN HISTORY. THE REVENUES ARE NOT JUST ON THE B…"
38:59
$CRESTA-AI
Cresta AI
MEDsaam motamedi·Bloomberg Tech·2 months ago·China's Moonshot, Netflix's Slump & Greylock's $1.5B Bet | Bloomberg Tech 7/17/2026
Saam Motamedi: Cresta AI leads service AI — Marriott calls handled by Cresta agents
Cresta AI is a leader in service AI with real production deployment handling Marriott customer calls; early example of AI application layer value creation.
"WE BACKED CRUST AI, ONE OF THE LEADERS IN SERVICE AI. WHEN CALLING MARRIOTT, WE ARE TALKING TO A CRUST AI AGENT."
34:07
$RESOLVE-AI
Resolve AI
MEDsaam motamedi·Bloomberg Tech·2 months ago·China's Moonshot, Netflix's Slump & Greylock's $1.5B Bet | Bloomberg Tech 7/17/2026
Saam Motamedi: Resolve AI agentic on-call engineers handling incidents for Coinbase, DoorDash, Fireworks
Resolve AI builds agentic on-call engineers that handle incidents autonomously, eliminating middle-of-night wake-ups for engineers at Coinbase, DoorDash, Fireworks; exemplifies agentic AI impact six months into models supporting long-running agents.
"WE ARE SIX MONTHS INTO MODELS THAT CAN POWER LONG-RUNNING AGENTS. WE ARE SEEING AMAZING RESULTS. RESOLVE AI BUILD AGENTIC ON-CALL ENGINEERS. COINBASE, DOORDASH, FIREWORKS, ENGINEE…"
36:02
$GREYLOCK
Greylock Partners
HIGHsaam motamedi·Bloomberg Tech·2 months ago·China's Moonshot, Netflix's Slump & Greylock's $1.5B Bet | Bloomberg Tech 7/17/2026· position
Saam Motamedi: Greylock raises $1.5B Fund 18 for early-stage AI, cybersecurity, fintech across three layers
Fund 18 targets model layer (new data domains), infrastructure layer (entire stack rewritten around agents, agent cloud gate), and application layer (proliferation now that long-running agents work); six months into models powering agents, seeing amazing results from portfolio companies like Resolve AI.
"WE JUST LAUNCHED OUR 18TH FUND. GREYLOCK OVER THE LAST SIX DECADES HAVE BEEN PARTNERING WITH ENTREPRENEURS WHEN COMPANIES GET STARTED, COMPANIES LIKE AIRBNB, FACEBOOK. AND WE ARE…"
33:30
$BASETEN
Baseten
MEDsaam motamedi·Bloomberg Tech·2 months ago·China's Moonshot, Netflix's Slump & Greylock's $1.5B Bet | Bloomberg Tech 7/17/2026
Saam Motamedi: Baseten backed in 2019, now serving leading AI application companies as infrastructure layer
Early investment in Baseten (2019) positioned Greylock for AI infrastructure wave; company now serves leading application companies and represents infrastructure layer that will be rewritten around agents.
"REWIND TO 2019, WE BACKED Baseten, SERVING SOME OF THE LEADING APPLICATION COMPANIES. TODAY WE HAVE COMPANIES LIKE Baseten AND INFERENCE, SNORKEL, AND DATA. WE BELIEVE WE WILL SEE…"
35:24
$OPENAI
OpenAI
MEDsaam motamedi·Bloomberg Tech·2 months ago·China's Moonshot, Netflix's Slump & Greylock's $1.5B Bet | Bloomberg Tech 7/17/2026
Saam Motamedi calls OpenAI a full-stack AI leader with major product revenue and pipeline
OpenAI, alongside Anthropic, operates as a full-stack AI company with significant revenues from first-party products and significant new model releases coming in the next months.
"IT AND OPENAI ARE FULL STACK AI COMPANIES. WE DO NOT KNOW WHAT IS COMING OUT FROM ANTHROPIC AND OPENAI IN THE COMING MONTHS. IT HAS BEEN REPORTED THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT NEW RELEASE…"
39:35
$ANTHROPIC
Anthropic
HIGHsaam motamedi·Bloomberg Tech·2 months ago·China's Moonshot, Netflix's Slump & Greylock's $1.5B Bet | Bloomberg Tech 7/17/2026· position
Greylock backs Anthropic as full-stack AI leader with fastest-growing revenue in history
Anthropic is a full-stack AI company with significant and rapidly growing revenue from first-party products like Claude Code and Claude Tag, not just model licensing; Greylock invested in Series F and later rounds.
"I THINK BOTH ANTHROPIC AND OPENAI HAVE MULTIPLE MODES. THEY HAVE SIGNIFICANT REVENUES. THESE ARE THE FASTEST GROWING COMPANIES IN HUMAN HISTORY. THE REVENUES ARE NOT JUST ON THE B…"
38:59
$RESOLVE-AI
Resolve AI
MEDsaam motamedi·Bloomberg Tech·2 months ago·China's Moonshot, Netflix's Slump & Greylock's $1.5B Bet | Bloomberg Tech 7/17/2026
Resolve AI's agentic on-call engineers adopted by Coinbase, DoorDash, Fireworks
Agentic AI is delivering real enterprise value today; Resolve AI builds agents that handle production incidents autonomously, eliminating middle-of-the-night wake-ups for engineers at major tech companies.
"RESOLVE AI BUILD AGENTIC ON-CALL ENGINEERS. COINBASE, DOORDASH, FIREWORKS, ENGINEERS DO NOT HAVE TO WAKE UP IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT WHEN THERE IS AN INCIDENT BECAUSE THE RESOLV…"
36:02
$GREYLOCK
Greylock Partners
HIGHsaam motamedi·Bloomberg Tech·2 months ago·China's Moonshot, Netflix's Slump & Greylock's $1.5B Bet | Bloomberg Tech 7/17/2026· position
Greylock raises $1.5B 18th fund targeting AI, cybersecurity, fintech across three layers
Greylock's 18th fund will invest across model, infrastructure, and application layers, betting the AI wave is 1-2 years post-iPhone moment with defining companies yet to start; they see an agent cloud infrastructure emerging and a proliferation of agentic applications.
"WE THINK OF IT AS THREE LAYERS AND WILL INVEST IN ALL THREE. WE SEE NEW COMPANIES GETTING BUILT AROUND NEW DATA DOMAINS AND APPROACHES. THERE IS A BIG OPPORTUNITY IN INFRASTRUCTUR…"
35:09
9
AI Economics & Business Modelstailwind
Saam Motamedi: Token economy 50x in 3 years, two orders of magnitude growth by 2030 — task cost > token cost
OpenAI processing grew from 30M tokens/day (2023) to 15B (March 2026) — 50x in <3 years; by 2030 overall token economy two orders of magnitude larger; market fixated on token cost misses task cost (Kimi K3 uses more tokens per task); room for multiple winners at application layer.
8
Venture Capitaltailwind
Greylock Fund 18 at $1.5B signals sustained early-stage AI conviction — mobile wave analogy (1-2 years post-iPhone)
Established firm raising large early-stage fund despite market volatility; historical pattern recognition (mobile wave) suggests defining AI companies yet to start; three-layer thesis (model, infrastructure, application) with infrastructure rewrite around agents as key near-term opportunity.
8
AI Infrastructuretailwind
Saam Motamedi: Entire AI stack being rewritten around agents; agent cloud gate emerging
Infrastructure layer opportunity as big as original cloud transition; companies like Baseten, inference providers, Snorkel, data companies building services for agent workloads; agent cloud gate will provide similar managed services for agentic workloads as cloud did for traditional workloads.
8
AI Agentstailwind
Agentic AI infrastructure rewrite underway with real enterprise deployments emerging
The entire software stack will be rewritten around agents; an 'agent cloud' infrastructure layer is forming, and early agentic applications like Resolve AI's on-call engineers are already producing measurable productivity gains at Coinbase, DoorDash, and Fireworks.
8
AI Agentstailwind
Saam Motamedi: Six months into long-running agent models — Resolve AI proving agentic value in production
Models capable of powering long-running agents only emerged six months ago; already seeing production deployments like Resolve AI's on-call engineers at Coinbase, DoorDash, Fireworks; proliferation of application companies coming as agents actually work.
8
AI Bubble / Capex Debatemixed
Token economy projected to grow 100x by 2030, but near-term spending justification debated
Saam Motamedi argues the overall token economy will expand two orders of magnitude by 2030 (50x growth in three years already), creating room for massive application-layer growth, while credit markets signal caution on the pace of debt-funded infrastructure build-out.
7
Enterprise AI Adoptiontailwind
Agentic AI moves from demo to production with on-call engineering and service agents
Resolve AI's autonomous incident response and Crust AI's voice agents for Marriott demonstrate early but tangible enterprise adoption of agentic workflows, validating the infrastructure rewrite thesis.
7
Frontier AI Modelsmixed
Model competition intensifying — Gemini delayed, Moonshot Kimi K3 benchmarks competitive with prior gen, Anthropic/OpenAI major releases imminent
Google behind on coding capability; Moonshot Kimi K3 competitive on some benchmarks vs prior-gen OpenAI/Anthropic but real-world performance unknown; significant new releases expected from Anthropic and OpenAI in coming months; checkpoint-in-time comparisons misleading.