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luis martín caviedes

T3 · host / generalist

Philosopher-turned-investor with 300+ startup investments; shifted from venture to private equity, citing leverage and time advantages. Views PE as 'billionaire factory' vs VC's long gestation.

3 calls·3 names·67% bull·last heard 11 months ago·SeedRocket TV
track record

no scored calls yet — needs a stated position or a categorical verdict, with a matured window vs SPY

top calls

highest conviction · one per company
1sthigh conviction
$PRIVATE-EQUITY-MODELPrivate Equity Modelposition

Caviedes: PE is 'billionaire factory' vs VC — leverage and time compression create superior wealth generation

Private equity outperforms venture for wealth creation due to leverage (debt at 2-5% vs 10%+ returns) and focusing on later stages near value inflection; VC takes 15-25 years for value creation ('masochistic'), PE compresses timeline and amplifies returns via debt.

SeedRocket TV2025-10episode →
2ndmedium conviction
$SPANISH-HOTEL-COMMERCIAL-RESpanish Hotel & Commercial Real Estate

Caviedes favors Spanish hotel/commercial/industrial RE: strong tourism tailwinds, supply constraints, less political risk

Hotel, industrial and commercial real estate in Spain benefit from tourism demand growth with constrained supply (Barcelona hotel moratorium since 2009), strong lobby protection, and less political intervention than residential. Prices rise 'por narices' when supply is capped.

SeedRocket TV2025-10episode →
3rdmedium conviction
$EAElectronic Arts

Caviedes: EA's high multiples reflect bet on AI slashing game production costs

Electronic Arts' valuation only makes sense if AI dramatically reduces video game development expenses; otherwise the multiples are unjustified.

SeedRocket TV2025-10episode →

most discussed · click a bar to filter

  • $SPANISH-HOTEL-COMMERCIAL-RE
  • $PRIVATE-EQUITY-MODEL
  • $EA

recurring themes

  • Private Markets1
  • AI Applications1
  • AI Bubble / Capex Debate1
  • AI Economics & Business Models1
3 total
$SPANISH-HOTEL-COMMERCIAL-RE
Spanish Hotel & Commercial Real Estate
MEDluis martín caviedes·SeedRocket TV·11 months ago·La fábrica de billonarios: Private Equity | Inteligencia artificial, REAL ESTATE... | TERTULIA #2
Caviedes favors Spanish hotel/commercial/industrial RE: strong tourism tailwinds, supply constraints, less political risk
Hotel, industrial and commercial real estate in Spain benefit from tourism demand growth with constrained supply (Barcelona hotel moratorium since 2009), strong lobby protection, and less political intervention than residential. Prices rise 'por narices' when supply is capped.
"otras cosas hotelero, industrial, comercial y otras cosas, incluso oficinas... una ciudad como Barcelona cortan la la oferta, obviamente van a subir los precios de primero de de p…"
48:20
$PRIVATE-EQUITY-MODEL
Private Equity Model
HIGHluis martín caviedes·SeedRocket TV·11 months ago·La fábrica de billonarios: Private Equity | Inteligencia artificial, REAL ESTATE... | TERTULIA #2· position
Caviedes: PE is 'billionaire factory' vs VC — leverage and time compression create superior wealth generation
Private equity outperforms venture for wealth creation due to leverage (debt at 2-5% vs 10%+ returns) and focusing on later stages near value inflection; VC takes 15-25 years for value creation ('masochistic'), PE compresses timeline and amplifies returns via debt.
"Private equity es la fábrica de billonarios, tío. Si es que es un negocio de narices... el apalancamiento y el apalancamiento y sobre todo el el tiempo son dos grandes ventajas de…"
6:30
$EA
···
Electronic Arts
MEDluis martín caviedes·SeedRocket TV·11 months ago·La fábrica de billonarios: Private Equity | Inteligencia artificial, REAL ESTATE... | TERTULIA #2
Caviedes: EA's high multiples reflect bet on AI slashing game production costs
Electronic Arts' valuation only makes sense if AI dramatically reduces video game development expenses; otherwise the multiples are unjustified.
"lo que comentabamos antes de Electronic Arts y tal, lo de es una apuesta a favor de que la IA va a reducir los gastos de producción de los videojuegos, porque si no no se no se en…"
13:55
8
Private Marketstailwind
PE 'billionaire factory' beats VC via leverage and time compression
Private equity generates more billionaires than venture capital because leverage (cheap debt) amplifies returns and PE focuses on value creation near exit, avoiding the 15-25 year 'desert' of early-stage VC.
8
AI Applicationsmixed
Generalist LLMs moving to application layer threaten vertical specialists without proprietary data or distribution
OpenAI and generalist LLMs are expanding into vertical applications; specialists survive only with unique data, distribution, or metaknowledge in a defensible niche. Otherwise the 'big player takes all' at scale.
7
AI Bubble / Capex Debaterisk
AI bubble inevitable but phase unknown — every tech revolution produces bubble and burst
An AI bubble will occur (as with all transformative technologies), but timing is unknowable. Current investment at record highs; valuations reflect bets on AI cost reduction (e.g., EA multiples).
7
AI Economics & Business Modelstailwind
Value creation shifting to 'entrepreneur/ingenuity' as third factor beyond labor and capital
Largest fortunes now accrue to entrepreneurs/ingenuity — a third factor distinct from labor and capital. AI accelerates this: execution cost drops, ideas gain value, and value capture shifts to those who define and deploy AI-native products.