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leopold aschenbrenner

T1 · high-signal investor

Founder of the investment firm Situational Awareness and author of a widely read essay series on artificial general intelligence and national security. Previously worked on the superalignment team at OpenAI.

38 calls·26 names·74% bull·last heard 2 months ago·Michael Sikand+3
track recordleaderboard →
hit rate
75%
avg alpha
+2.0pp
scored
4

top calls

best measured alpha vs SPY · one per company
1st+12.0pp vs SPY
$WDCWestern Digitalposition

Leopold Doubles Down on SanDisk/Western Digital for AI Memory

Leopold increases Western Digital (SanDisk brand) which surged 40,000%, betting on NAND flash as critical temporary memory substrate for AI model inference.

Limitless Podcast2026-05episode →
2nd+11.4pp vs SPY
$AVGOBroadcomposition

Leopold Shorts Broadcom Despite Project Stargate Role

Leopold shorts Broadcom, the key builder of OpenAI's Project Stargate infrastructure, signaling skepticism toward the AI capex supercycle.

Limitless Podcast2026-05episode →
3rd+7.7pp vs SPY
$NVDANvidiaposition

Nvidia was the only pure AI-beta trade before the boom

Nvidia offered uniquely concentrated AI exposure: each successive increase in AI compute demand translated directly into material revenue growth, unlike suppliers whose AI businesses were initially too small to move the whole company.

Dwarkesh Patel2024-06episode →

most discussed · click a bar to filter

  • $BE
  • $ANTHROPIC
  • $APLD
  • $NVDA
  • $IRM

recurring themes

  • AI Infrastructure5
  • Grid & Power Infrastructure4
  • Frontier AI Models4
  • AI Economics & Business Models3
  • Memory & Storage2
38 total
$T1-ENERGY
T1 Energy
LOWleopold aschenbrenner·Michael Sikand·2 months ago·He Turned $200M Into $20B. But Made One Huge Mistake.· position
Solar stock T1 Energy jumps 23% on retail copy-trading of Leopold's 13F filing disclosure
Market reaction to Leopold's filing demonstrates the reflexive loop where his disclosed positions drive immediate price action, but no fundamental thesis on T1 Energy itself is articulated.
"When his recent filing revealed that he owned solar stock T1 Energy, it jumped 23% in one day just because he bought it."
6:31
$BE
···
Bloom Energy
HIGHleopold aschenbrenner·Michael Sikand·2 months ago·He Turned $200M Into $20B. But Made One Huge Mistake.· position
Bloom Energy becomes 16% of portfolio as on-site power solution for AI data centers
Fuel cells provide reliable on-site power for energy-intensive AI data centers, solving grid interconnection delays; Bloom Energy's technology is uniquely positioned to power the AI infrastructure buildout.
"On-site power was another bottleneck Leopold saw before everyone else. Bloom Energy, which makes fuel cells powering data centers, became one of his highest conviction trades. At…"
4:04
$IRM
···
Iron Mountain
MEDleopold aschenbrenner·Michael Sikand·2 months ago·He Turned $200M Into $20B. But Made One Huge Mistake.· position
Iron Mountain identified as a neocloud play with 600% gains in Situational Awareness portfolio
Iron Mountain's data center assets and power access position it to pivot from traditional storage to high-margin AI infrastructure, driving explosive returns as demand for compute capacity surges.
"filing showed that Leopold held names like Apply Digital at a price of $5.62 and Iron at $69. By the end of September, those stocks were up 300 and 600% respectively."
3:34
$SKHY
···
SK hynix
HIGHleopold aschenbrenner·Michael Sikand·2 months ago·He Turned $200M Into $20B. But Made One Huge Mistake.· position
SK Hynix 15x return as memory chip bottleneck play in AI infrastructure thesis
Memory chips are a critical bottleneck for AI model training; SK Hynix as a leading HBM supplier will see sustained demand far outstripping supply as AI clusters scale to trillions of parameters.
"Situational awareness first invested in SKH Highix in November 2024, and from that time period to the end of June of this year, it shares 15xed."
3:55
$ANTHROPIC
Anthropic
HIGHleopold aschenbrenner·Michael Sikand·2 months ago·He Turned $200M Into $20B. But Made One Huge Mistake.· position
Early Anthropic investment at $61.5B valuation yields 14x gain as valuation approaches $1T
Frontier AI model developers like Anthropic capture outsized value as AI scales toward AGI; early access via Silicon Valley networks allowed entry at a fraction of later fundraising valuations.
"He took an anthropic position when the company was worth just 61.5 billion. In its most recent fundraising round, it was worth nearly a trillion, a 14x gain."
4:28
$SNDK
···
SanDisk
MEDleopold aschenbrenner·Michael Sikand·2 months ago·He Turned $200M Into $20B. But Made One Huge Mistake.· position
SanDisk highlighted as a major memory/storage holding in Situational Awareness AI infrastructure portfolio
SanDisk's flash memory and storage solutions are essential for AI data pipelines and inference workloads, benefiting from the same memory bottleneck thesis that drove SK Hynix returns.
"SanDisk. It's one of the biggest names in Leopold's book."
5:06
$APLD
···
Applied Digital
MEDleopold aschenbrenner·Michael Sikand·2 months ago·He Turned $200M Into $20B. But Made One Huge Mistake.· position
Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness fund held Applied Digital as a key AI infrastructure bet
Applied Digital benefits from the AI buildout as a neocloud provider with access to power, pivoting from Bitcoin mining to data centers to capture surging demand for AI compute.
"filing showed that Leopold held names like Apply Digital at a price of $5.62 and Iron at $69. By the end of September, those stocks were up 300 and 600% respectively."
3:34
$ANTHROPIC
Anthropic
HIGHleopold aschenbrenner·TBPN·2 months ago·Leopold is Back! Big Tech Earnings, Beautiful Debt, Defense Tech Deep Dive· position
Situational Awareness turns down $3.5B Anthropic stake sale to Green Oaks and Sequoia, keeping position
Leopold's fund negotiated a $3.5B sale of its Anthropic stake but pulled out at the last minute to retain the position, signaling high conviction in Anthropic's long-term value despite fund distress.
"Situational awareness tried to sell a $3.5 billion stake in Anthropic to a group of investors led by Green Oaks and Sequoia. Obviously, there's a lot of demand for the stock. Uh t…"
30:34
$APLD
···
Applied Digital
HIGHleopold aschenbrenner·Michael Sikand·2 months ago·He Turned $200M Into $20B. But Made One Huge Mistake.· position
Leopold Aschenbrenner buys Applied Digital at $5.62 as AI data center bottleneck play
Applied Digital benefits from AI infrastructure buildout as a data center provider with power access, a key bottleneck for AI scaling.
"Leopold held names like Apply Digital at a price of $5.62 and Iron at $69. By the end of September, those stocks were up 300 and 600% respectively."
3:34
$SITUATIONAL-AWARENESS-LP
Situational Awareness LP
HIGHleopold aschenbrenner·TBPN·2 months ago·Leopold is Back! Big Tech Earnings, Beautiful Debt, Defense Tech Deep Dive· position
Leopold Aschenbrenner takes full responsibility for -67% July drawdown, sells public book to Citadel to protect LP capital
Fund experienced extreme volatility in AI positions but took decisive action to remove all leverage and preserve private positions; Aschenbrenner remains fully invested alongside LPs and believes fundamentals are accelerating while prices have declined.
"We ultimately found a solution that protected the fund and you as investors. Our intention in running the fund is to never find ourselves in such a position in the first place. Vo…"
5:59
10
AI Infrastructuretailwind
AI scaling turns software into a trillion-dollar industrial buildout
Frontier AI increasingly requires data centers, power plants, and semiconductor fabs, turning software progress into a massive physical infrastructure cycle.
10
Grid & Power Infrastructuretailwind
Gigawatt AI clusters create structural demand for new power
Existing electricity supply cannot support projected training and inference needs, forcing substantial new generation, particularly natural gas initially.
10
Grid & Power Infrastructuretailwind
Grid permitting may constrain AI infrastructure more than generation
Solar, batteries, nuclear, and geothermal projects still depend on interconnections, transmission rights, and permitting processes that can take years.
10
Cybersecuritytailwind
AI labs must evolve toward military-grade security infrastructure
Startup security is inadequate for protecting frontier weights and algorithms from states, creating demand for air gaps, vetted hardware, and strict access controls.
10
AI Infrastructuretailwind
AI beta broadens from GPUs into memory, fabs, and power
Investment exposure should migrate through the infrastructure stack as AI becomes material to semiconductor foundries, memory, energy, and utilities.
9
AI Infrastructuretailwind
AI buildout requires trillions in industrial-scale capex for chips, memory, power, and data centers
AI development is an industrial process compounding rapidly toward AGI by 2027, demanding massive physical infrastructure investment across semiconductors, memory, power generation, and networking — creating multi-year bottlenecks.
9
AI Infrastructuretailwind
Leopold Aschenbrenner frames AI as industrial process requiring trillions in physical buildout
AI development requires massive physical infrastructure investment (chips, memory, power, data centers, networking), creating multi-year bottlenecks in each layer.
9
Memory & Storagetailwind
High-bandwidth memory emerges as critical choke point for AI scaling, driving 15x returns in SK Hynix
Memory bandwidth, not just compute, is the binding constraint for large language model training; HBM suppliers like SK Hynix face structural supply deficits as AI cluster sizes grow exponentially.