▶ 30:34 · $ANTHROPIC · Situational Awareness turns down $3.5B Anthropic stake sale to Green Oaks and Sequoia, keeping position

episode briefing

Leopold is Back! Big Tech Earnings, Beautiful Debt, Defense Tech Deep Dive

2026-07-31 · 11 company · 17 thematic

sentiment

8 bull0 bear3 neu

speakers

leopold aschenbrenner

Founder of the investment firm Situational Awareness and author of a widely read essay series on artificial general intelligence and national security. Previously worked on the superalignment team at OpenAI.

richard craig

Founded quant hedge fund Numerai in 2015; background in mathematics and early AI; runs factor-neutral, low-volatility strategy targeting pure alpha; early LP in Polychain Capital.

trey stevens

Co-founded Anduril after identifying defense hardware gap at Founders Fund; early Palantir employee (employee ~13) who built government business; advocates for reindustrialization and product-led defense model.

blake resnick

Founded Brinc to deploy 911 response drones on police/fire station roofs; raised $125M led by Motorola Solutions; builds automated drone-in-a-box systems (Responder, Guardian) with battery-swap recharging pods.

quote

“Situational awareness tried to sell a $3.5 billion stake in Anthropic to a group of investors led by Green Oaks and Sequoia. Obviously, there's a lot of demand for the stock. Uh the parties reached a deal late Wednesday, but then situation…”

—leopold aschenbrenner

now playing · $ANTHROPIC

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Leopold Aschenbrenner takes full responsibility for -67% July drawdown, sells public book to Citadel to protect LP capital

Fund experienced extreme volatility in AI positions but took decisive action to remove all leverage and preserve private positions; Aschenbrenner remains fully invested alongside…

$ANTHROPICbullish· high· posleopold aschenbrenner

Situational Awareness turns down $3.5B Anthropic stake sale to Green Oaks and Sequoia, keeping position

Leopold's fund negotiated a $3.5B sale of its Anthropic stake but pulled out at the last minute to retain the position, signaling high conviction in Anthropic's long-term value de…

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Numerai targets pure alpha via factor-neutral, low-volatility quant strategy

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Richard Craig explains Numera.ai's pure alpha strategy: hedging thousands of factor risks with high leverage but low volatility

True alpha requires neutralizing all factor risks (market, momentum, sector) so returns are uncorrelated; Numera uses high leverage on a tightly risk-constrained portfolio to achi…

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Numerai founder bought Amazon calls personally, calls it a gamble not alpha

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$POLYCHAINneutral· medium· posrichard craig

Richard Craig invested in Polychain as crypto analog to high-volatility concentrated funds

Polychain represented the crypto version of a concentrated, high-volatility fund; Richard was first and largest LP but didn't expect 1000% returns to persist, viewing it as a risk…

$SPCX···neutral· medium· postrey stevens

SpaceX faces valuation reset as lockups loom, but remains generational company

SpaceX has reset to near IPO price with lockups not yet released; two-year overhang as shares unlock, but still a generational hard-tech success.

$ANDURILbullish· high· postrey stevens

Anduril builds Arsenal 1 factory in 18 months, rolls first Fury autonomous fighter, announces Thunder attack helicopter

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Founders Fund GP claims Fund II could be greatest venture fund in history

Trey Stevens states Founders Fund's second fund, anchored by SpaceX, may be the best-performing venture fund ever, though he wasn't part of it.

$BRINC-DRONESbullish· high· posblake resnick

Brinc raises $125M led by Motorola to put 911 response drones on every police and fire station roof in America

Brink targets 80,000 police/fire stations with automated drone-in-a-box systems (Responder, Guardian) featuring battery-swap recharging, Starlink connectivity, and thermal/visual…

$MSI···bullish· highblake resnick

Motorola Solutions leads Brinc $125M round, provides distribution to every police/fire department and product integration

Motorola is the #1 public safety vendor with pre-existing contracts and relationships at every potential Brink customer; integration includes emergency radio button triggering dro…

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