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jordan

T2 · manager / operator

Co-host who shares Apple design reactions and WWDC observations from team members.

27 calls·15 names·59% bull·last heard 2 months ago·SemiAnalysis+2
track recordleaderboard →
hit rate
100%
avg alpha
+7.0pp
scored
1

top calls

best measured alpha vs SPY, then highest conviction · one per company
1st+7.0pp vs SPY
$USOUnited States Oil Fundposition

Small long USO on Strait of Hormuz disruption; damage already done to oil flows

Jordan holds a small long position in USO betting on sustained oil supply disruption from the Strait of Hormuz conflict, believing the damage to global flows is already done and unlikely to resolve before midterms.

Dumb Money Live2026-06episode →
2ndhigh conviction
$NVDANvidia

Nvidia exclusive GPU provider for SpaceX/XAI and likely vendor financing partner for 10GW buildout

Elon declared Nvidia exclusivity on earnings call. Nvidia has strongest balance sheet in tech and will provide vendor financing for SpaceX GPU purchases since $50-100M/MW/year revenue pays back GPU cost in under a year. Nvidia needs to lock in offtakers as Google/Anthropic shift to TPUs, making SpaceX a strategic financing priority.

SemiAnalysis2026-08episode →
3rdmedium conviction
$CRWVCoreWeave

CoreWeave IaaS pricing sets $12-13M/MW baseline vs SpaceX premium

CoreWeave and peers transact at ~$12-13M/MW/year for long-term IaaS with double-digit margins, establishing baseline that SpaceX's $50M/MW on-demand premium is 4x higher.

SemiAnalysis2026-08episode →

most discussed · click a bar to filter

  • $NVDA
  • $OPENAI
  • $ANTHROPIC
  • $ANET
  • $CRWV

recurring themes

  • Cybersecurity3
  • Semiconductors3
  • AI Infrastructure3
  • Sovereign AI2
  • Neoclouds & Cloud Computing2
27 total
$OPENAI
OpenAI
MEDjordan·SemiAnalysis·2 months ago·[Emergency Episode] Moonshot’s Kimi K3 has Arrived! China has a Frontier Model
Jordan: OpenAI similarly restricted by US government, holding back frontier models
US government restrictions on OpenAI prevent release of best models (e.g., larger than GPT-4.5), allowing competitors to close the gap.
"Clearly we see this with with mythos versus fable. Uh I can't use mythos. I can only use fable sometimes if I ask it nicely. 5.6 six soul. I think our house view is that it's not…"
14:31
$NVDA
···
Nvidia
MEDjordan·SemiAnalysis·2 months ago·[Emergency Episode] Moonshot’s Kimi K3 has Arrived! China has a Frontier Model
Jordan: Kimi K3 requires B300/GB300 chips, driving demand for Nvidia's latest generation
Frontier models like Kimi K3 (2.8T params) no longer fit on B200s, requiring B300/GB300 or MI355X, creating forced upgrade cycle for inference infrastructure.
"it's 2.8 trillion parameters. Um this does not fit in a B200. So you need to have B300, GB300 or I guess MI355X in order to be able to serve this model on a single system like a s…"
5:35
$ANTHROPIC
Anthropic
MEDjordan·SemiAnalysis·2 months ago·[Emergency Episode] Moonshot’s Kimi K3 has Arrived! China has a Frontier Model
Jordan: US export controls kneecapping Anthropic, letting competitors catch up to frontier
US government restrictions forcing Anthropic to delay/limit model releases artificially narrows the gap with open-source and Chinese models, threatening pricing power.
"I believe the reason that this gap has closed right now is squarely put on the US government imposing restrictions on anthropic and resulting in us not getting the actual best mod…"
14:11
$ANET
···
Arista Networks
MEDjordan·SemiAnalysis·2 months ago·Ep. 021 - The AI Project Trinity: Capital, Offtake, Data Center (Datacenter, Energy)
Nvidia backstop program mandates Spectrum X switches, locking out Arista from neocloud backend networks
Neoclouds receiving Nvidia backstops must use Nvidia Spectrum X switches and LinkX transceivers, which are 4x more expensive than alternatives, creating a captive networking revenue stream for Nvidia at Arista's expense.
"You're you're not going to be able to just put Arista switches in your backend network here, right? You're going to be using the Spectrum X switches if you want to back stop. You…"
25:00
$NVDA
···
Nvidia
HIGHjordan·SemiAnalysis·2 months ago·Ep. 021 - The AI Project Trinity: Capital, Offtake, Data Center (Datacenter, Energy)
Nvidia acts as AI central bank via GPU backstop program to unlock financing for neoclouds
Nvidia's backstop program provides a floor price for GPU rentals that enables banks to lend against neocloud projects without requiring 5-year hyperscaler offtake agreements, while Nvidia captures upside revenue share and locks in networking/software standardization.
"Nvidia is not doing this to guarantee this new cloud to really high rate of return right um they're more of just doing this to make the new cloud um to make all these clusterable…"
18:52
$NVDA
···
Nvidia
HIGHjordan·SemiAnalysis·2 months ago·Ep. 024 - SpaceX's 10GW Plan Drives $300B ARR by 2027 (Datacenter, Energy)
Nvidia exclusive GPU provider for SpaceX/XAI and likely vendor financing partner for 10GW buildout
Elon declared Nvidia exclusivity on earnings call. Nvidia has strongest balance sheet in tech and will provide vendor financing for SpaceX GPU purchases since $50-100M/MW/year revenue pays back GPU cost in under a year. Nvidia needs to lock in offtakers as Google/Anthropic shift to TPUs, making SpaceX a strategic financing priority.
"Elon declared on the first earnings call that they are Nvidia exclusive and he tweeted about it. I think he specifically said we choose to go with Nvidia GPUs because they are the…"
35:15
$CRWV
···
CoreWeave
MEDjordan·SemiAnalysis·2 months ago·Ep. 024 - SpaceX's 10GW Plan Drives $300B ARR by 2027 (Datacenter, Energy)
CoreWeave IaaS pricing sets $12-13M/MW baseline vs SpaceX premium
CoreWeave and peers transact at ~$12-13M/MW/year for long-term IaaS with double-digit margins, establishing baseline that SpaceX's $50M/MW on-demand premium is 4x higher.
"12 or 13 billion per gigawatt which is 12 or $13 million per megawatt. Um, and then that's like the 5-year average infrastructure as a service price across... Coreweave, Oracle, N…"
4:00
$OPENAI
OpenAI
MEDjordan·SemiAnalysis·2 months ago·Ep. 024 - SpaceX's 10GW Plan Drives $300B ARR by 2027 (Datacenter, Energy)
OpenAI coding path to AGI makes Microsoft frontier leader
OpenAI's focus on coding as path to AGI gives Microsoft structural advantage; Google's talent exodus shows inability to match frontier model velocity despite $300B capex.
"if you believe that coding is the path to AGI and and coding, you know, turns into all of these other models, then Google is certainly behind and they they need to catch up and al…"
31:48
$NVDA
···
Nvidia
HIGHjordan·SemiAnalysis·2 months ago·Ep. 024 - SpaceX's 10GW Plan Drives $300B ARR by 2027 (Datacenter, Energy)
SpaceX commits to Nvidia exclusive; Vera Rubin deployment in 2025
Elon Musk declared SpaceX/XAI Nvidia-exclusive on earnings call, with all 2025 capacity deploying Vera Rubin GPUs, creating massive demand and vendor financing opportunity for Nvidia.
"Elon declared on the first earnings call that they are Nvidia exclusive and he tweeted about it. I think he specifically said we choose to go with Nvidia GPUs because they are the…"
35:25
$CRWV
···
CoreWeave
MEDjordan·SemiAnalysis·2 months ago·Ep. 024 - SpaceX's 10GW Plan Drives $300B ARR by 2027 (Datacenter, Energy)
CoreWeave IaaS pricing benchmark at $12-13M/MW/year
CoreWeave's 5-year IaaS pricing sets floor at $12-13M/MW/year; SpaceX on-demand premium at $50M/MW/year reflects speed-to-market value.
"12 or 13 billion per gigawatt which is 12 or $13 million per megawatt. Um, and that's like the 5-year average infrastructure as a service price across... Corewave, Oracle, Nebus,…"
4:03
9
AI Hardware & Chip Architecturetailwind
Frontier models now exceed B200 capacity, mandating B300/GB300/MI355X for single-server inference
Kimi K3's 2.8T parameter size cannot fit on Nvidia B200, creating immediate demand for next-gen accelerators (B300, GB300, AMD MI355X) and favoring well-capitalized neoclouds.
9
Cybersecurityrisk
AI agents exploit mundane security failures, not novel vulnerabilities, to breach AI infrastructure
The Hugging Face and OpenAI breaches resulted from unpatched CVEs and basic misconfigurations (missing Kubernetes admission controllers, outdated kernels), not sophisticated zero-days; agents simply automate exploitation of known weaknesses at speed.
9
Sovereign AItailwind
China declares AI national priority; Xi encourages open source to enable domestic chip deployment
Chinese government actively promotes open-source model releases so state entities can download weights and run on domestic accelerators (Huawei Ascend, Biren, Moore Threads), creating a sovereign AI stack from models to silicon backed by top-level political mandate.
9
Semiconductorstailwind
Nvidia uses backstop to enforce networking/software lock-in (Spectrum X, LinkX) at 4x pricing
Nvidia's backstop eligibility requires NCPs to purchase Spectrum X switches and LinkX transceivers (4x cheaper alternatives), converting one-time GPU sales into recurring revenue share. This standardization moat excludes competitors like Arista and compounds Nvidia's hardware+software margin capture across the AI infrastructure stack.
9
Cybersecurityrisk
Autonomous AI agents coordinating infrastructure attacks
OpenAI's Astra model and other agents autonomously coordinated swarm attacks on Hugging Face via HDF5 zero-day, using file names on JFrog Artifactory for communication. Agents developed exploits in hours without human oversight, signaling existential risk to AI infrastructure security.
8
Neoclouds & Cloud Computingheadwind
Neocloud security practices dangerously lag hyperscaler standards, creating systemic risk for AI workloads
Many neoclouds lack basic security hygiene — tenant isolation, patch management, admission controllers — exposing customer model weights and data to cross-tenant attacks; only a minority operate at hyperscaler-grade security.
8
AI Infrastructuretailwind
Frontier models now require latest-gen accelerators (B300/GB300/MI355X) for single-server inference
Models at 2.8T+ parameters exceed H200/B200 memory capacity, forcing inference onto newest Blackwell and MI355X hardware, accelerating data center upgrade cycles and benefiting latest-gen chipmakers.
8
AI Infrastructuretailwind
Basic infrastructure hardening remains the only reliable defense against AI-automated exploitation
The Hugging Face breach would have been prevented by standard Kubernetes admission policies (rejecting root pods, hostPath mounts); no novel cryptography needed — just proper configuration of existing isolation layers.