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▶ 31:48 · $OPENAI · OpenAI coding path to AGI makes Microsoft frontier leader
episode briefing
SemiAnalysis

Ep. 024 - SpaceX's 10GW Plan Drives $300B ARR by 2027 (Datacenter, Energy)

2026-08-09 · 12 company · 12 thematic
sentiment
7 bull1 bear4 neu
speakers
jeremy

First author of SemiAnalysis SpaceX 10GW article; leads inference economics modeling (Inference X) and supply chain tracking for AI data centers.

jordan

Co-host who shares Apple design reactions and WWDC observations from team members.

rick

SemiAnalysis data center permitting and construction expert; tracked 1M+ US sites for power/warehouse availability, turbine supply, and labor bottlenecks.

quote
“if you believe that coding is the path to AGI and and coding, you know, turns into all of these other models, then Google is certainly behind and they they need to catch up and all of the signals we're seeing from them is that they are not…”
—jordan
now playing · $OPENAI
$SPCX···bullish· highjeremy
SpaceX targets 10GW data center capacity by 2027 to capture $300B ARR from AI token economics
SpaceX can build 10GW of data centers by 2027 using warehouse sites, Chinese electrical equipment, and mobile turbines, monetizing at $50-100M/MW/year via 90-day cancellation on-d…
$ANTHROPICbullish· highjeremy
Anthropic 85% gross margins drive $100M/MW/year inference economics
Anthropic and OpenAI combined add $20-30B ARR/month at 85% gross margins, validating $100M/MW/year token economics that underpin SpaceX pricing power.
$CRWV···neutral· mediumjordan
CoreWeave IaaS pricing sets $12-13M/MW baseline vs SpaceX premium
CoreWeave and peers transact at ~$12-13M/MW/year for long-term IaaS with double-digit margins, establishing baseline that SpaceX's $50M/MW on-demand premium is 4x higher.
$ORCL···neutral· lowjeremy
Oracle New Mexico turbines available for data center power
Oracle's New Mexico turbines represent available power generation assets that can be repurposed for AI data centers.
$NBIS···neutral· lowjeremy
Nebius New Jersey engines available for power generation
Nebius has engines available in New Jersey that can be deployed for behind-the-meter data center power.
$CRUSOEneutral· mediumrick
Crusoe best modular builder but Elon uses 3x less labor
Crusoe achieves best-in-class modular data center construction but SpaceX's Colossus 2 used ~3,000 workers/GW vs Crusoe's ~9,000, via Chinese prefabrication.
$TSLA···bullish· lowrick
Tesla batteries provide redundancy for SpaceX data centers
Tesla's battery supply enables SpaceX to reduce backup generator redundancy, accelerating data center deployment timelines.
$MSFT···bullish· highjeremy
Microsoft is SpaceX's largest potential offtaker with 7GW OpenAI gap needing immediate capacity in late 2026/H1 2027
Microsoft has 7GW offtake with OpenAI but paused data center builds in H2'24/H1'25, creating capacity gap in late 2026/H1'27. Now accelerating via pre-leasing (7GW YTD), neocloud…
$CVX···bullish· mediumjeremy
Chevron 2.7GW behind-the-meter deal signals Microsoft strategy pivot
Microsoft's behind-the-meter gas deal with Chevron in Pecos County marks major strategy shift from grid-dependent to self-generation for AI capacity acceleration.
$GOOGL···bearish· mediumrick
Google signed SpaceX emergency capacity deal but losing frontier AI talent despite $300B capex
Google signed SpaceX on-demand deal with 90-day cancellation for immediate GPU needs but plans to cancel in 6 months. Meanwhile, top researchers (Jeff Dean, Dave Silver, John Jump…
$OPENAIbullish· mediumjordan
OpenAI coding path to AGI makes Microsoft frontier leader
OpenAI's focus on coding as path to AGI gives Microsoft structural advantage; Google's talent exodus shows inability to match frontier model velocity despite $300B capex.
$NVDA···bullish· highjordan
Nvidia exclusive GPU provider for SpaceX/XAI and likely vendor financing partner for 10GW buildout
Elon declared Nvidia exclusivity on earnings call. Nvidia has strongest balance sheet in tech and will provide vendor financing for SpaceX GPU purchases since $50-100M/MW/year rev…