jason lemkin

T3 · host / generalist

Founder of SaaStr, a community and media platform for B2B software founders and executives. He is an early-stage investor and a frequent commentator on SaaS growth and go-to-market strategy.

40 calls·32 names·50% bull·last heard 12 days ago·20VC

track record

no scored calls yet — needs a stated position or a categorical verdict, with a matured window vs SPY

top calls

highest conviction · one per company

1sthigh conviction

$HIGGSFIELDHiggsfield AIposition

Higgsfield hits $500M ARR in AI video, raising at $5B — Jason and Harry invested

Higgsfield (AI video generation platform) doing ~$2M/day in credit card billings (~$500M+ ARR), cash-flow positive, raising at $5B valuation. Jason and Harry are early investors. Proves consumer AI video can be a real business model (vs. Sora shutdown). Jason: 'CL has proven that there is a business here and people will pay for it.'

20VC2026-07→

2ndhigh conviction

$EXAExaposition

Exa raises at $2.2B as 'Google for agents' — core infrastructure for agentic web search

Exa provides structured web search that agents need (they don't use Google); it's a derivative bet on agent proliferation, with potential for multi-player market (like AWS/GCP) rather than winner-take-all, and could reach $1B+ revenue if enterprise agent build-out matches SpaceX's 90%-enterprise AI spend forecast.

20VC2026-05→

3rdhigh conviction

$NVDANvidiaposition

Nvidia at 7% of S&P 500 means every American is an AI investor whether they know it

Nvidia's 7% index weight makes it a systemic risk factor; the market demands beat-raise-accelerate each quarter, so flat post-earnings is actually a sign of strength given extreme expectations.

20VC2026-05→

most discussed · click a bar to filter

recurring themes

40 total

$SPCX

···

SpaceX

LOWjason lemkin·20VC·12 days ago

SpaceX can build and sell compute capacity like Google and neoclouds — infinite demand for compute

SpaceX's proven ability to execute complex infrastructure (Starlink) positions it to enter compute market; anyone with capital and build capability can sell compute in current infinite-demand environment.

"Anyone who has capital and can build compute can sell compute. ... um SpaceX can do it because they've done it successfully I think to Google and to Anthropic. So there's just inf…"

38:30

$NVDA

···

Nvidia

HIGHjason lemkin·20VC·12 days ago

Nvidia's open weights letter signals strategic pivot as component manufacturer faces margin pressure

Nvidia must support open weights to maintain relevance as top customers build custom chips, but open models bypass CUDA and compress margins; Jensen's first-ever X post signing open letter with Microsoft, Meta, IBM shows the tide has turned.

"Nvidia is all behind it, right? First tweet in first tweet in in since the 1900s. Like it's pretty clear. ... He's got to go in both dance halls now, right? He's got to go frontie…"

3:02

$GOOGL

···

Alphabet

MEDjason lemkin·20VC·12 days ago

Google Cloud accelerates to 82% YoY growth but first-ever negative FCF spooks market on capex ROI fears

Top-line strength (82% cloud growth, $119B revenue) offset by capex anxiety — investors question whether $200B spend yields returns in 2-3 years; Korean market -28% reflects broader AI panic.

"Google Cloud accelerating 82% as I said and it did not come out well. The reception was not great. ... One is it's capex spend and is it going to yield a return and then secondly…"

35:00

$NOW

···

ServiceNow

MEDjason lemkin·20VC·12 days ago

ServiceNow's workflow complexity moat makes it irreplaceable; analytics layer vulnerable to AI vibe-coding disruption

ServiceNow abstracts away business complexity — you can't run a large org without it; however, analytics modules are easiest to replace with AI coding agents, creating a barbell of sticky core vs commoditized periphery.

"I think the problems they solve are so sufficiently complicated, you need them. No, you just can't run your business without service now. ... Analytics is like the cat. Like we al…"

62:00

$FRANCISCO-PARTNERS

Francisco Partners

HIGHjason lemkin·20VC·12 days ago

Francisco Partners raises $21B fund; Jason skeptical PE turnaround playbook works after 5 years of price hikes with no net new customers

Legacy SaaS PE strategy of leverage + price increases + module expansion is exhausted — 5 years in, no net new customers, price hikes from $22k to $80k (Marketo example) have squeezed blood from stone; net new revenue test needed before investing.

"I I keep hoping that these companies that I know become gems. And I every every interaction, every conversation, every week goes by, I I feel less and less Jimmy. I I don't believ…"

55:00

$WIX

···

Wix

LOWjason lemkin·20VC·12 days ago

Wix trades below 1x revenue — core business effectively free at current valuation

At <1x revenue, market prices Wix as if base business has zero value; potential PE target if leverage + operational efficiency can extract cash flows.

"If you look at a Wix, it's trading at less than 1x revenues now. basically means you're paying 10x for base 44's revenues and you're getting the core business for free primary"

59:00

$AI-AGENTS-CYBERSECURITY

AI Agents Cybersecurity

HIGHjason lemkin·20VC·12 days ago

Every company will suffer LLM agent breach in 24 months; trusted vendors win over cost savings

Goal-seeking LLM agents with system access are already causing undisclosed security breaches at Fortune 500 companies (exfiltrating data, modifying code); CIOs will ban risky open-weight models regardless of cost savings because career risk favors trusted vendors like OpenAI/Anthropic over cheaper Chinese alternatives.

"I believe that every company in the next 24 months will have a security breach due to an LLM agent. every single company and they've already had it and they're not disclosing it.…"

12:13

$GOOGL

···

Alphabet

MEDjason lemkin·20VC·12 days ago

Google Cloud grows 82% but negative FCF spooks market on capex ROI

Google Cloud's 82% YoY growth was overshadowed by first-ever negative free cash flow; market anxiety centers on whether $200B+ capex will yield returns in 2-3 years, though renting compute to frontier labs has been a great business so far.

"Google Cloud accelerating 82% as I said and it did not come out well. The reception was not great. How did we think about this guys? You can't get lost on the day. I mean, it's st…"

34:49

$NOW

···

ServiceNow

MEDjason lemkin·20VC·12 days ago

ServiceNow sticky enterprise platform hard to displace with AI coding agents

ServiceNow solves sufficiently complex workflow problems that companies cannot run without it; unlike analytics or task management tools that can be vibe-coded away, ServiceNow abstracts away core business complexity creating a durable moat.

"I think the problems they solve are so sufficiently complicated, you need them. No, you just can't run your business without service now. But if you talk to anyone that's run on S…"

62:04

$NVDA

···

Nvidia

HIGHjason lemkin·20VC·12 days ago

Nvidia forced to support open weights despite margin pressure

Nvidia's first-ever X post backing open weights reveals its vulnerability as a component manufacturer dependent on a few frontier lab customers who are now building their own chips; open weights bypass CUDA and compress margins but Nvidia must support both closed and open ecosystems to survive.

"Nvidia is all behind it, right? First tweet in first tweet in in since the 1900s. Like it's pretty clear. It's got the a lot of lot of a lot of stresses and uh and so it just it's…"

1:31