iñaki berenguer

AI scaling laws drive 100K-1M GPU clusters where GPU-to-GPU communication becomes primary bottleneck. Electrical Ethernet hits physics limits (attenuation, power). Optical circuit switches (silicon photonics) keep signals in photonic domain, enabling 800G-1.6T links over 30-40m without O-E-O conversion. Broadcom (>$1T) captures merchant silicon; startups like Iprronics target optical switching layer. 20% of GPU capex flows to networking.

Function Health demonstrates consumer willingness to pay $1K/yr for quarterly multi-omic panels (blood, urine, full-body MRI) analyzed by AI for trend detection pre-symptom. 400K subs in US (80% pay-for-health culture) vs Europe (10% due to free public care). Shifts healthcare from reactive episodic to continuous preventive. AI personalization of supplements, lifestyle, early intervention extends healthspan. Longevity tailwind.

Call centers and web analytics are first verticals where AI agents replace humans but create new supervision burden. Humans cannot monitor 100% of AI interactions (sampling 2-3%). AI supervisors (Infinite Watch) analyze every voice call and session replay for compliance, quality, hallucination, latency, UX friction. Insurance/regulated verticals adopt first despite slow procurement. Pattern generalizes to any domain deploying autonomous agents.

Sora-class models now produce 30s+ coherent video. Market will segment: Freepik/Creative (ad/ecom images), HeyGen/Synthesia (short clips), InVideo (education), Mito (collaborative multiplayer for films/music videos/docs). Differentiation via product experience (multiplayer, timeline, asset management) not raw model. Lightspeed backing signals conviction. Parallels 2006-2010 social media segmentation (FB/LinkedIn/Twitter).

Waymo commercial in 10 US cities (2024); Europe zero pilots until London/Munich 2026. Healthcare: US private payers adopt AI scribes/diagnostics in months (win-win KPIs); Europe public procurement requires 6-12 month RFPs, regulatory divergence. Founders should target US first; Europe follows with lag. Spanish founders advantage: bilingual, EU access, but must accept US immigration sacrifices for ambition.

Top decile venture returns require 12-14 year hold periods (Flywire 2010-2022, Cabify 2012-present). No secondary liquidity for most positions. Investors must size checks to tolerate total illiquidity and maintain conviction through flat/valuation markdown periods (2020-2024 vintage). Berenguer allocates >$20M direct + $100M fund + LP commitments to top-tier funds (Kleiner, Index, USV, Kibo) for diversification.

Da Vinci robots generate structured video + instrument telemetry — ideal training data for surgical AI. Current joystick control maps directly to autonomous policy learning (like FSD). AI surgeons scale infinitely vs 10-year human training. Lifex backs surgical robotics startups. Regulatory pathway exists (FDA cleared autonomous elements). Creates 'surgeon abundance' analogous to GPU abundance for intelligence.