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Private Markets · Venture illiquidity structural: 12-14 year holds for winners (Flywire, Cabify) demands conviction
now playing · Private Markets
AI Infrastructuretailwindscore 9/10iñaki berenguer
Silicon photonics switches solve GPU interconnect bottleneck at 20% of data center capex
AI scaling laws drive 100K-1M GPU clusters where GPU-to-GPU communication becomes primary bottleneck. Electrical Ethernet hits physics limits (attenuation, power). Optical circuit switches…
AI in Healthcaretailwindscore 9/10iñaki berenguer
Preventive health via frequent biomarker testing + AI analysis: $400M ARR in 3 years proves model
Function Health demonstrates consumer willingness to pay $1K/yr for quarterly multi-omic panels (blood, urine, full-body MRI) analyzed by AI for trend detection pre-symptom. 400K subs in US…
AI Applicationstailwindscore 8/10iñaki berenguer
AI supervising AI: enterprises need automated oversight as they replace humans with agents
Call centers and web analytics are first verticals where AI agents replace humans but create new supervision burden. Humans cannot monitor 100% of AI interactions (sampling 2-3%). AI superv…
AI Applicationstailwindscore 8/10iñaki berenguer
Video generation models segment like social media: collaborative longer-form is distinct wedge
Sora-class models now produce 30s+ coherent video. Market will segment: Freepik/Creative (ad/ecom images), HeyGen/Synthesia (short clips), InVideo (education), Mito (collaborative multiplay…
AI Geopolitics & Export Controlsheadwindscore 8/10iñaki berenguer
Europe 3-4 years behind US in AI adoption due to public procurement and regulation
Waymo commercial in 10 US cities (2024); Europe zero pilots until London/Munich 2026. Healthcare: US private payers adopt AI scribes/diagnostics in months (win-win KPIs); Europe public proc…
Private Marketsriskscore 7/10iñaki berenguer
Venture illiquidity structural: 12-14 year holds for winners (Flywire, Cabify) demands conviction
Top decile venture returns require 12-14 year hold periods (Flywire 2010-2022, Cabify 2012-present). No secondary liquidity for most positions. Investors must size checks to tolerate total…
AI in Healthcaretailwindscore 7/10iñaki berenguer
Surgical robotics platforms (Intuitive $200B) transitioning to AI autonomy — solving surgeon scarcity
Da Vinci robots generate structured video + instrument telemetry — ideal training data for surgical AI. Current joystick control maps directly to autonomous policy learning (like FSD). AI s…