gavin baker

Gavin Baker believes Dario Amodei's maximalist pacing proposal, while sincere on safety, would also serve Anthropic's commercial interests by cementing its frontier position through regulatory capture.

The only tangible outcome from the weekend's pacing debate is that OpenAI and Anthropic will adopt embedded third-party evaluators, which Baker views as a smart liability shield but not a material change to investment theses.

Crusoe is one of only a handful of non-hyperscaler companies (with CoreWeave and SpaceX) to bring online >500 MW of power capacity in a year, signaling elite execution in AI infrastructure buildout.

Neoclouds like CoreWeave had to sign long-term offtake agreements to finance GPU purchases, locking in below-spot pricing; as these contracts expire, their revenue reprices higher at current spot rates, creating a multi-year tailwind.

Data from Cognition, Ramp, and Stripe shows companies with highest token spend as percentage of comp (20-50%) grow meaningfully faster — evidence that compute investment drives productivity, not just cost.

OpenAI has re-accelerated after a period of compute constraint; the game theory of the compute arms race ensures no lab will back off, especially as operating cash flow fundamentals improve.

Grok 4.6 benchmarks show higher quality than GPT-5 (Fable) at slightly lower price on Cursor and Databricks benchmarks; caught up in 6 months via Cursor team acquisition and SpaceX management infusion; Grok 4.7 (larger model) coming in weeks; Grok Bot democratizes personalization like 'open claw' moment.

Boom Supersonic building turbine business first due to data center demand; Elon personally bought turbine company to move fast; jet engine residuals strong as engines repurposed for data center power.

XAI bought Cursor (or has right to acquire) - team is 'dialed in'; Anthropic made prescient bet on coding after watching Cursor's utilization on their platform; Cursor benchmarks now used to grade Grok 4.6 performance.

Nvidia partnering with Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Goldman, BlackRock, Morgan Stanley to raise $500B for AI compute financing; provides residual value guarantees on GPUs (3-4 year offtake at floor price) to lower financing costs; gets revenue share above floor - could become large capital-light cloud royalty business; alleviates financing constraint on TAM; not circular - real asset-backed financing like aircraft leasing.