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$CAT · Increasing turbine capacity 75% to power AI data centers with natural gas
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$NVDA···neutral· high· posgavin baker
Blackwell product transition historically complex, delaying AI progress until reasoning models bridged gap
Blackwell's shift to liquid cooling, 3x rack weight, and 4x power density created an 18-month deployment delay that would have stalled AI progress entirely without the emergence o…
$GOOGL···neutral· high· posgavin baker
Google's TPU cost advantage is rational but temporary; Blackwell/GB300 will erase it
Google has been the low-cost token producer using TPUs, strategically running negative margins to suffocate competitors. However, once Blackwell models deploy for inference, Googl…
$NVDA···bullish· high· posgavin baker
GB300 drop-in compatibility will make vertically integrated players the low-cost token producers
The GB300 is drop-in compatible with GB200 racks, eliminating the painful transition. Companies deploying GB300s in their own data centers will become the low-cost token producers…
$NVDA···bullish· high· posgavin baker
Reuben/Rubin next-gen will significantly widen performance gap versus TPUs and other ASICs
Nvidia's accelerated annual cadence (Reuben after Blackwell) combined with Google's conservative TPU design choices and Broadcom margin friction will expand Nvidia's lead over mer…
$GOOGL···bearish· high· posgavin baker
TPU v8/v9 conservative design and Broadcom margin friction signal slowing TPU competitiveness
Google's bifurcated TPU supply chain (MediaTek + Broadcom) and conservative design choices, driven partly by Broadcom's 50-55% gross margins on backend/TSMC management, will cause…
$AMD···bullish· medium· posgavin baker
MI450/MI355 acceleration and Lisa Su's annual cadence response to ASIC threat
AMD is accelerating its GPU roadmap (MI450, MI355) in direct competitive response to customers building custom ASICs, matching Nvidia's annual cadence strategy to stay relevant in…
$CHRW···bullish· high· posgavin baker
AI-driven 20% earnings uplift from freight quoting automation proves enterprise ROI
CH Robinson automated freight quoting from 60% coverage in 15-45 minutes to 100% coverage in seconds using AI, driving a 20% earnings beat. First concrete Fortune 500 non-tech exa…
$TSLA···bullish· medium· posgavin baker
Optimus robot mass production vs Chinese competition; convergence with XAI/SpaceX
Tesla's Optimus is the main Western contender in humanoid robotics; Chinese startups lead in prototypes but mass production is the barrier. Convergence with XAI (intelligence) and…
$MSFT···bullish· high· posgavin baker
Only major SaaS incumbent not failing the 'life or death' AI agent transition
Microsoft embraces low-margin AI agents (Copilot, GitHub Copilot) despite gross margin compression, leveraging its cash-generative legacy business to fund the transition — unlike…
$AVGO···bearish· mediumgavin baker
Google paying ~$15B/year to Broadcom creates economic incentive to internalize ASIC backend
At $30B TPU TAM, Broadcom's 50-55% gross margin implies $15B annual payments from Google. With Broadcom's semiconductor opex only ~$5B, Google could double/triple Broadcom employe…
$META···bearish· highgavin baker
Failed frontier model ambition; Chinese open source now a 'gift from God' for catch-up
Zuckerberg's unequivocal 2025 frontier model prediction failed completely (Yann LeCun departure, $1B researcher hiring). Meta's inability to run large GPU clusters at high utiliza…
$AMZN···neutral· mediumgavin baker
Nova models not top 20; Trainium 3/4 progression; best ASIC team in industry
Amazon's internal models (Nova) are not competitive (not top 20), but their ASIC team (Graviton, Nitro, Trainium) is the best in the industry. Trainium 3 will be first 'okay' chip…
$XAIbullish· highgavin baker
First Blackwell model deployment; fastest data center build; OpenRouter token share leader
xAI will deploy the first Blackwell-trained model (early 2026) because Elon builds data centers faster than anyone (per Jensen). They help Nvidia debug Blackwell at scale. Already…
$OPENAIbearish· highgavin baker
High-cost token producer; Stargate $1.4T 'code red' driven by Google's predatory pricing
OpenAI pays margins for compute (Microsoft/Oracle) and may not run clusters optimally, making it a high-cost token producer. Google's negative-margin strategy forces OpenAI into a…
$ANTHROPICbullish· mediumgavin baker
Burning less cash, growing faster; $5B Nvidia deal signals Blackwell preference over TPU
Anthropic has superior unit economics (less burn, faster growth) and strategically signed a $5B Nvidia deal because Dario Amodei understands Blackwell/Rubin will outpace TPUs. Thi…
$SPCX···bullish· highgavin baker
Starship enables space data centers; Starlink direct-to-cell creates superior inference UX
Space data centers are first-principles superior: 6x solar irradiance, no batteries needed (24/7 sun), free cooling via radiators to deep space, laser interconnects faster than fi…
$TSM···neutral· highgavin baker
TSMC capacity caution acts as 'governor' on AI bubble; laughed at Sam Altman's $7T ask
TSMC's trauma from past cycles makes them the 'governor' on AI capex — they met with Sam Altman and dismissed him as a 'podcast bro.' Their refusal to expand faster than customer…
$INTC···bullish· mediumgavin baker
Foundry empty fabs will fill given compute shortage; Lip-Bu Tan reaping Gelsinger's strategy
Intel's foundry fabs sit empty but will inevitably fill as compute demand outstrips TSMC capacity. Pat Gelsinger's strategy was the only path to success; Lip-Bu Tan now benefits f…
$NUCLEAR···bearish· highgavin baker
US nuclear too slow (NEPA); natural gas + solar are the actual AI power solution
Nuclear cannot scale fast enough in the US due to NEPA/regulatory constraints (a single rare ant can delay a plant). The real solution is natural gas (abundant from fracking, fast…
$CAT···bullish· mediumgavin baker
Increasing turbine capacity 75% to power AI data centers with natural gas
Caterpillar committed to 75% turbine capacity expansion over next few years to meet AI data center power demand, confirming natural gas (enabled by fracking) as the near-term solu…
$DRAM···neutral· mediumgavin baker
Risk of first true DRAM capacity cycle since late 1990s as HBM demand explodes
HBM demand for AI accelerators could trigger a genuine DRAM supply cycle (price spikes 10x, not 30-50%), unlike the oligopoly-managed cycles of the last 25 years. This would be a…
$CRM···bearish· highgavin baker
SaaS incumbents failing 'life or death' agent transition by preserving 80% gross margins
Application SaaS companies (Salesforce, ServiceNow, HubSpot, GitLab, Atlassian) are repeating brick-and-mortar retailers' e-commerce mistake: refusing to accept 35-40% AI agent gr…
$QUANTUM···bearish· highgavin baker
Public quantum stocks are not the leaders; supremacy misunderstood as niche not universal
True quantum leaders are Google, IBM, Honeywell Quantum — not public pure-plays. Quantum supremacy means specific calculations beat classical, not universal superiority. Nuclear f…