ed

The market has moved from indiscriminate SaaS selloff to a structured framework: companies with usage-based revenue, clear AI tailwinds, and share-gain potential (DataDog, CrowdStrike) trade at 15x+ NTM revenue, while those with replicable products, incumbent exposure, and seat-based models (Wix, Adobe, Intuit) trade at 1x.

The Anthropic Fable ban marks the first US regulation of an AI model purely on capability grounds; if extended to OpenAI/Google models in 3-6 months, it could lead to government controlling access to superintelligence on a country-by-country basis, reshaping global economic power.

Intercom's pivot to per-resolution pricing demonstrates the winning model: align revenue with customer outcomes, forcing vendors into the resolution path and enabling measurable value delivery that AI-native competitors cannot easily undercut.

The extreme cost of frontier model development makes a small oligopoly inevitable; sovereign efforts in Europe will affiliate with US leaders rather than build full stacks, similar to cloud infrastructure.

A Chinese robotic startup targeting $3B valuation signals strong global investor demand for companies merging AI with physical systems — complementing Discovery Loop's RSI approach to scientific experimentation in the physical world.

Memory semiconductors are a neglected beneficiary of AI infrastructure buildout, offering low multiples with high leverage to data center capex.