aaron levie

Every 15-20 years a platform shift enables new startup waves; AI requires a new application layer translating model capabilities into domain-specific workflows (legal, finance, marketing, HR), creating opportunities across the stack from agent-first apps to infrastructure.

Enterprise adoption is constrained by the speed at which humans can integrate model intelligence with proprietary data, navigate real-world permits/regulations, and redesign end-to-end workflows — not by model capabilities which are already sufficient for most consumer tasks.

Agents perform net-new work humans never did (reading all contracts for upsell signals, generating 5,000 personalized ads vs 5), expanding total economic output rather than replacing labor; robotics will extend this to physical world.

AI creators' public anxiety about their own technology ('Larry David made AI models') scared policymakers and the public, leading to bipartisan hostility, data center moratoriums (NY), and risk of punitive regulation — a self-inflicted messaging crisis that will dominate elections.

Kimi K3 ranks third globally on composite benchmarks, near-parity with top US models on some tasks, collapsing previous assumptions of a 1-2 year China lag; open-weight ecosystem in China is accelerating.

Negative public sentiment driven by industry's own fear-mongering is translating into concrete policy threats: NY data center moratorium, red-state ban proposals, potential new tax regimes — directly threatening compute infrastructure rollout.

Continued compute availability and exponential high-quality data growth keep pre-training and post-training scaling laws intact, with no wall in sight across all major labs.