▶ 4:50 · $OPENAI · OpenAI Misses Targets, Codex vs Claude, Elon vs Sam Trial, Big Hyperscaler Beats, Peptide Craze

episode briefing

OpenAI Misses Targets, Codex vs Claude, Elon vs Sam Trial, Big Hyperscaler Beats, Peptide Craze

2026-05-01 · 12 company · 8 thematic

sentiment

9 bull3 bear0 neu

speakers

Co-founder of Craft Ventures and a co-host of the All-In podcast. Part of the PayPal mafia and founder of Yammer; active on AI and tech policy.

chamath palihapitiya

Founder and CEO of Social Capital and a co-host of the All-In podcast. An early Facebook executive who became a prominent venture and SPAC investor.

david friedberg

Co-host of the All-In podcast and a serial founder, including The Climate Corporation. Focuses on science, agriculture and deep tech.

quote

“I think that over the past week or two, if you look at kind of what's happening at the product level, it's been a pretty good couple of weeks for them. They released chat GBT 5.5 and the reviews from, you know, people I talked to in Silico…”

—david sacks

episode shorts · 3

"Elon has massive leverage in AI right now" - Chamath

"What the f*** is he doing!?" - The Besties React to the Elon/S…

“Rumination is the path to unhappiness.” - J Cal

now playing · $OPENAI

$OPENAIbullish· mediumdavid sacks

Sacks: OpenAI product momentum shifting positive with GPT-5.5 and Codex despite missed consumer targets

OpenAI's new base model 'Spud' and GPT-5.5 release are winning developer mindshare in coding, while Anthropic faces compute constraints; enterprise demand may justify the massive…

$ANTHROPICbearish· mediumdavid sacks

Sacks: Anthropic compute-constrained, Opus 4.7 struggling, Mythos not commercially ready

Anthropic is token-constrained and engaging in compute gating with Opus 4.7, reducing thinking time and quality; Mythos cyber model is not commercially released due to compute lim…

$CURSORbullish· lowdavid sacks

Sacks: Cursor shifting coding usage from Opus to GPT-5.5, teamed with Grok

Developer mindshare moving to OpenAI's Codex/GPT-5.5; Cursor partnership with Grok/xAI expands compute access for coding agents.

$ORCL···bullish· mediumchamath palihapitiya

Chamath: Oracle a key hyperscaler beneficiary of power/compute constraints

Power constraints hurt Anthropic and OpenAI most; benefit hyperscalers specifically Oracle, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Google who control grid access and can negotiate equity/co…

$SPCX···bullish· mediumchamath palihapitiya

Chamath: xAI/Grok has excess compute capacity, positioned to capitalize on competitors' constraints

Grok has 'ton of excess capacity' while Anthropic/OpenAI are power-constrained; Cursor deal was appetizer; if models catch up in quality, Elon could do deals with Anthropic or Ope…

$GOOGL···bullish· highdavid friedberg

Friedberg: Google Cloud growing 63% YoY, leading in enterprise and consumer AI

Google Cloud grew 63% on $20B quarterly revenue; 75% of GCP customers active on Vertex AI; Gemini at 700-750M users neck-and-neck with ChatGPT; stock 'absolutely ripped' on AI lea…

$GOOGL···bullish· mediumdavid sacks

Sacks: Google took meaningful consumer share with Gemini, Sergey's return pivotal

Google was nowhere in consumer AI a year ago; Sergey Brin's return focused the company; Gemini integration into search brilliantly balanced AI answers with ad revenue.

$PANW···bullish· mediumdavid sacks

Sacks: Palo Alto Networks positioned for AI cyber upgrade cycle

Same as CRWD - AI-powered cyber offense/defense creates one-time upgrade cycle benefiting established cyber platforms.

$CRWD···bullish· mediumdavid sacks

Sacks: CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks positioned for AI cyber upgrade cycle

Frontier models reaching Mythos-level cyber capabilities will trigger a one-time massive upgrade cycle as AI discovers dormant vulnerabilities; cyber vendors like CrowdStrike and…

$CSCO···bearish· mediumchamath palihapitiya

Chamath: Cisco 2000 analogy warns of hyperscaler capex overbuild risk

Hyperscaler $725B+ capex mirrors late-90s fiber buildout; Cisco took 25 years to recover 2000 peak; dark fiber then vs no dark GPUs now is the key difference Sacks cites.

$LLY···bullish· highdavid friedberg

Friedberg: Retatride triple agonist phase 3 data shows 'wonder drug' potential, FDA 2027

Retatride (triple GLP-1/GIP/glucagon agonist) shows 37lb weight loss vs 6lb placebo, 80% liver fat reduction, 27% non-HDL cholesterol drop, 41% triglyceride drop, A1C 7.9% to 6% i…

$BAYRY···bearish· mediumdavid friedberg

Friedberg: Bayer faces $10B paid, $10B reserved, 90K Roundup cases; Supreme Court preemption case pivotal

Bayer/Monsanto has paid $10B in state failure-to-warn lawsuits, reserved another $10B, with 90K cases outstanding; Supreme Court case on FIFRA federal preemption vs state law (pos…

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