yuechi yang

Robinhood reduced its share of Kalshi trading volume from ~50% to <20% over the past year after directing orders to Rosera, an exchange it backed with SIG, signaling strategic shift in prediction market partnerships.

Kalshi's annualized revenue doubled to over $4B in three months driven by World Cup event contracts, with advanced talks to raise at a $40B valuation (nearly 2x May's $22B), though post-World Cup volumes have slowed and regulatory risk around sports contracts remains.

Major trading firm Susquehanna co-founded Rothera with Robinhood, providing capital and trading expertise for the prediction market exchange infrastructure.

Kalshi initially powered Robinhood's prediction markets but Robinhood sought more control via Rothera joint venture; Kalshi retains strong retail brand and will continue to be important for consumer-facing trading.

Rothera founder Thomas Chippas previously founded ErisX which was acquired by Cboe in 2022, becoming Cboe Digital, demonstrating his exchange-building track record.

Prediction markets have become one of Robinhood's biggest business lines, generating more revenue than equities or crypto trading, driving their 45% stake in Rothera for greater control over this fast-growing revenue stream.

Rothera operates as a pure-play exchange and clearing house behind the scenes, avoiding consumer-facing competition with partners like Robinhood, and has quickly reached top-5 prediction market volume since its June launch.

Polymarket continues as an important consumer-facing prediction market with strong retail recognition alongside Kalshi, serving as a direct-to-consumer platform.

Yang said Rothera is betting that institutional investors will prefer a pure-play prediction exchange aligned with traditional market structure, while Kalshi and Polymarket retain stronger retail brands.

Robinhood's prediction market business has become a top revenue line, exceeding both equities and crypto trading; the 45% stake in Rothera gives Robinhood control over this fast-growing infrastructure.