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tomasz tunguz

T2 · manager / operator

General Partner at Theory Ventures, formerly at Redpoint Ventures for nearly 15 years. Focuses on AI, data, and ML investments. Uses AI agents to analyze 3-4x more companies.

3 calls·2 names·100% bull·last heard 2 months ago·The Information
track record

no scored calls yet — needs a stated position or a categorical verdict, with a matured window vs SPY

top calls

highest conviction · one per company
1sthigh conviction
$OPENAIOpenAI

Theory Ventures GP calls AI advertising critical to OpenAI success, predicts market larger than search and social

AI advertising will become a massive market exceeding search ($250B) and social ($263B) ads, and is essential for OpenAI to offset inference costs — similar to Netflix's ad tier — with ads living in middle-to-bottom of funnel driving personalized conversions.

The Information2026-07episode →
2ndmedium conviction
$THEORY-VENTURESTheory Ventures

Theory Ventures runs 2:1 engineer-to-investor ratio, automating deal analysis with AI agents

The firm employs more engineers than investors to build AI agents that analyze 3-4x more companies per year, automating first-pass filters, memo generation, and market mapping.

The Information2026-07episode →

most discussed · click a bar to filter

  • $OPENAI
  • $THEORY-VENTURES

recurring themes

  • Cybersecurity2
  • Open Source AI1
  • AI Infrastructure1
  • AI Economics & Business Models1
  • Advertising1
3 total
$THEORY-VENTURES
Theory Ventures
MEDtomasz tunguz·The Information·2 months ago·How AI Will Change Businesses by 2030
Theory Ventures runs 2:1 engineer-to-investor ratio, automating deal analysis with AI agents
The firm employs more engineers than investors to build AI agents that analyze 3-4x more companies per year, automating first-pass filters, memo generation, and market mapping.
"We have more engineers on staff than we have investors by two to one. I think that will continue for the life of the firm. And I think we're I mean, we were able to analyze in muc…"
3:24
$OPENAI
OpenAI
HIGHtomasz tunguz·The Information·2 months ago·How AI Will Change Businesses by 2030
Theory Ventures GP calls AI advertising critical to OpenAI success, predicts market larger than search and social
AI advertising will become a massive market exceeding search ($250B) and social ($263B) ads, and is essential for OpenAI to offset inference costs — similar to Netflix's ad tier — with ads living in middle-to-bottom of funnel driving personalized conversions.
"Yes. I mean, I think it's in critical to the success of that business just given the fraction of consumers or you know, the visitation patterns. And then also, it's important to o…"
19:28
$OPENAI
OpenAI
HIGHtomasz tunguz·The Information·2 months ago·TITV One Year Anniversary Show
Tunguz: OpenAI advertising revenue will dwarf search and social
OpenAI's advertising business will be critical to offset inference costs and could exceed the $250B search and $263B social ad markets due to personalized, funnel-deep ad formats.
"Yes. I mean I think it's critical to the success of that business just given the fraction of consumers or you know the visitation patterns and then also it's important to offset t…"
21:15
8
Open Source AItailwind
Open source models to capture 30-50% of token usage with 9:1 cost advantage and local inference
Open source models currently represent 30% of token consumption (per OpenRouter data) and will grow to 30-50% due to 90% cost savings; 60-80% of non-coding business functions can run locally on modern MacBooks, reducing cloud dependency.
8
AI Infrastructuretailwind
Tunguz: Open source models to capture 30-50% of inference via 90% cost advantage
Open source models currently represent 30% of token consumption but will grow to 30-50% as enterprises exploit 9:1 cost savings, though frontier models remain essential for novel use cases.
8
AI Economics & Business Modelsmixed
Model half-life of 41 days drives intense competition and user churn, reshaping AI lab economics
State-of-the-art models retain leadership for only 41 days on average, with >50% user loss in month one (per OpenRouter/Stanford research), creating relentless competitive pressure for labs to raise capital and capture share.
7
Cybersecuritytailwind
Zero data retention mandates and supply chain attacks drive enterprise AI security spending
CISOs enforce ZDR (zero data retention) policies and distrust model providers' claims; supply chain attacks like the Axiom library hack affecting hundreds of millions of projects make authentication and secrets management critical infrastructure.
7
Cybersecuritytailwind
Tunguz: Zero data retention mandates and supply chain attacks drive enterprise AI security spend
CISOs enforce zero data retention policies and distrust model providers; supply chain attacks (e.g., Axiom library hack) highlight vulnerability, creating demand for authentication, secret management, and data governance tools.
7
Advertisingtailwind
Tunguz: AI advertising market will surpass search and social combined
AI ads operate mid-to-bottom funnel with personalized creatives per user, making them structurally more valuable than search/social ads; this revenue is critical for AI labs to offset inference costs.