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tomas

T2 · manager / operator

Tomas is a partner at Theory Ventures, a venture capital firm focused on early-stage infrastructure and AI investments. He has invested in inference optimization (Sail), local inference (Ollama), and tracks vertical AI valuations, legacy software rollups, and the agentic economy.

19 calls·13 names·58% bull·last heard 9 days ago·TBPN
track record

no scored calls yet — needs a stated position or a categorical verdict, with a matured window vs SPY

top calls

highest conviction · one per company
1sthigh conviction
$VERTICAL-AIVertical AI Application Companiesposition

Theory Ventures: Vertical AI harnesses trading at 100-150x ARR; agents now charging at human parity/premium

Fastest-growing AI harnesses trade at 100-150x current ARR, often with subsidized margins to maximize distribution. Portfolio company already charges at par with human labor and will likely charge a premium given no management/healthcare overhead and instant scalability.

TBPN2026-09episode →
2ndmedium conviction
$SALESaleposition

Theory Ventures backs Sale for batch inference optimization targeting 5-10 minute latency tolerance

Sale addresses the inference market's segmentation by offering dramatically cheaper compute for workloads tolerant of 5-10 minute latency (e.g., Databricks-style batch jobs), capturing the non-real-time inference segment that doesn't need premium instant response.

TBPN2026-09episode →
3rdmedium conviction
$OLAMAOllamaposition

Theory Ventures invests in Ollama: 10M users running local AI inference on MacBooks

Ollama enables local AI inference on consumer hardware (90% of white-collar use cases run on MacBook per Stanford study), with seamless cloud burst for heavier workloads, capturing the edge inference layer.

TBPN2026-09episode →

most discussed · click a bar to filter

  • $SALE
  • $CSU.TO
  • $OLAMA
  • $DHR
  • $NVDA
19 total
$SALE
Sale
MEDtomas·TBPN·9 days ago·All Eyes on Warsh, Space Weapons, DreamMogged, Tomasz Tunguz Joins· position
Theory Ventures backs Sale for batch inference optimization targeting 5-10 minute latency tolerance
Sale addresses the inference market's segmentation by offering dramatically cheaper compute for workloads tolerant of 5-10 minute latency (e.g., Databricks-style batch jobs), capturing the non-real-time inference segment that doesn't need premium instant response.
"The single biggest market in software today is inference. It used to be the database market, now it's inference... We've invested in one company called Sale that um you know you c…"
73:00
$CSU.TO
···
Constellation Software
MEDtomas·TBPN·9 days ago·All Eyes on Warsh, Space Weapons, DreamMogged, Tomasz Tunguz Joins
Constellation Software cited as model for vertical SaaS roll-up strategy
Constellation Software's decentralized holding company model—acquiring and operating vertical market software businesses with high retention—is the blueprint for consolidating legacy SaaS at attractive multiples.
"Constellation Software would be example of another one... I would expect them to be pretty active just given how attractive the the multiples are."
81:40
$OLAMA
Ollama
MEDtomas·TBPN·9 days ago·All Eyes on Warsh, Space Weapons, DreamMogged, Tomasz Tunguz Joins· position
Theory Ventures invests in Ollama: 10M users running local AI inference on MacBooks
Ollama enables local AI inference on consumer hardware (90% of white-collar use cases run on MacBook per Stanford study), with seamless cloud burst for heavier workloads, capturing the edge inference layer.
"We're also investors in a company called Olama which is about 10 million people using it uh initially for local uh so you can actually run uh a lot of AI on your computer Stanford…"
73:40
$DHR
···
Danaher
MEDtomas·TBPN·9 days ago·All Eyes on Warsh, Space Weapons, DreamMogged, Tomasz Tunguz Joins
Danaher referenced as public holding company model for software consolidation
Danaher's industrial holding company approach—buying niche market leaders with strong retention and applying operational playbooks—translates to software roll-ups like Bending Spoons.
"Danaher would be a publicly uh traded example of of a kind of a holding company."
81:40
$NVDA
···
Nvidia
MEDtomas·TBPN·9 days ago·All Eyes on Warsh, Space Weapons, DreamMogged, Tomasz Tunguz Joins
Nvidia acquires Hugging Face and Poolside, pushes Neotron models to dominate open source AI
Nvidia is vertically integrating into open source AI via Hugging Face acquisition and Poolside 'semi-acquisition', while pushing Neotron models to control the model layer—making open source an essential ecosystem component they can influence.
"Clearly, Nvidia is pushing quite a bit with the Neotron and the acquisition of Hugging Face plus the pool side, uh, semi-acquisition, let's call it."
76:27
$BSP
···
Bending Spoons
MEDtomas·TBPN·9 days ago·All Eyes on Warsh, Space Weapons, DreamMogged, Tomasz Tunguz Joins
Bending Spoons roll-up model: acquiring legacy SaaS at 2-5x revenue via net dollar retention arbitrage
Bending Spoons exploits multiple arbitrage by buying durable legacy software companies with phenomenal net/gross dollar retention at 2-5x revenue, then applying holding company discipline (like Constellation Software/Danaher) to extract value—VCs should replicate this model to clean up vintage fund positions.
"The key metric there is just net dollar retention and gross dollar retention. So some of the legacy we'll call them legacy software companies for a second. Their revenue retention…"
80:00
$NVDA
···
Nvidia
MEDtomas·TBPN·9 days ago·All Eyes on Warsh, Space Weapons, DreamMogged, Tomasz Tunguz Joins
Theory Ventures: Nvidia expands into models (Neotron) and acquires Hugging Face/Poolside to control AI software stack
Nvidia is pushing Neotron models and acquiring Hugging Face plus Poolside to vertically integrate the AI software stack, while Neoclouds use older GPU collateral for billions in debt.
"Clearly, Nvidia is pushing quite a bit with the Neotron and the acquisition of Hugging Face plus the pool side, semi-acquisition, let's call it. The cost of compute has become one…"
76:27
$OLAMA
Olama
MEDtomas·TBPN·9 days ago·All Eyes on Warsh, Space Weapons, DreamMogged, Tomasz Tunguz Joins
Theory Ventures backs Olama: 10M users running local AI inference; Stanford study shows 90% white-collar use cases run on MacBook
Olama enables local AI inference on consumer hardware with 10M users; Stanford study validates that 90% of white-collar AI use cases can run on MacBook, shifting inference from cloud to edge.
"We're also investors in a company called Olama which is about 10 million people using it initially for local so you can actually run a lot of AI on your computer. Stanford release…"
73:43
$DHR
···
Danaher
MEDtomas·TBPN·9 days ago·All Eyes on Warsh, Space Weapons, DreamMogged, Tomasz Tunguz Joins
Theory Ventures cites Danaher as public holding company model for legacy software roll-ups
Danaher demonstrates the public holding company approach of acquiring and operating diverse industrial/software businesses with strong retention, relevant for VC-backed roll-up strategies.
"There are a handful of companies that have been or investment firms that have been doing this for a long time. And I'm surprised we haven't seen them be more active. And then you…"
81:20
$CSU.TO
···
Constellation Software
MEDtomas·TBPN·9 days ago·All Eyes on Warsh, Space Weapons, DreamMogged, Tomasz Tunguz Joins
Theory Ventures cites Constellation Software as public model for legacy software roll-up strategy
Constellation Software exemplifies the holding company model of acquiring vertical market software with high retention at low multiples, providing a public market analog for Bending Spoons-style roll-ups.
"And then you also have holding companies that have bought a lot of these businesses like Danaher would be a publicly traded example of a kind of a holding company. Constellation S…"
81:30
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