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todd

T3 · host / generalist

31-year industry veteran discussing AI infrastructure bottlenecks, GPU asset class formation, and second-order investment winners; emphasizes physical layer durability over chip cycles.

10 calls·5 names·20% bull·last heard last month·Bloomberg Tech
track record

no scored calls yet — needs a stated position or a categorical verdict, with a matured window vs SPY

top calls

highest conviction · one per company
1stmedium conviction
$NVDANvidia

Nvidia praised but GPU asset class durability questioned amid rapid innovation

Nvidia's Jensen Huang is incredible and the company is loved, but the economic life of GPUs is uncertain due to coming memory bottlenecks and architecture shifts, making long-term asset class durability risky.

Bloomberg Tech2026-08episode →
2ndmedium conviction
$WDAYWorkday

SaaS seat license model under pressure from AI token-based pricing

Traditional SaaS seat license models face structural risk as AI-driven token usage and consumption-based pricing squeeze per-seat revenue.

Bloomberg Tech2026-08episode →
3rdmedium conviction
$AMDAMD

AMD's MI450 ramp and non-competitive compute strategy seen as well positioned

AMD's upcoming MI450 ramp and strategy of providing compute without competing with customers positions it well in the AI infrastructure buildout.

Bloomberg Tech2026-08episode →

most discussed · click a bar to filter

  • $NVDA
  • $WDAY
  • $AMD
  • $CRM
  • $NOW

recurring themes

  • Grid & Power Infrastructure1
  • AI Infrastructure1
  • AI Economics & Business Models1
  • SaaS Business Models1
  • Data Center Infrastructure1
10 total
$NVDA
···
Nvidia
MEDtodd·Bloomberg Tech·last month·Anthropic's Revenue Jump, Wealthy Bet on SpaceX | Bloomberg Tech 8/17/2026
Nvidia praised but GPU asset class durability questioned amid rapid innovation
Nvidia's Jensen Huang is incredible and the company is loved, but the economic life of GPUs is uncertain due to coming memory bottlenecks and architecture shifts, making long-term asset class durability risky.
"THINK JENSEN IS INCREDIBLE AND WE LOVE NVIDIA. WE THINK COMPANIES LIKE AMD, WHICH HAS GREAT TECHNOLOGY -- THEIR 450 RAMP LOOKS PROMISING, AND THEY ARE SHOWING UP WITH A WHOLE RANG…"
10:15
$WDAY
···
Workday
MEDtodd·Bloomberg Tech·last month·Anthropic's Revenue Jump, Wealthy Bet on SpaceX | Bloomberg Tech 8/17/2026
SaaS seat license model under pressure from AI token-based pricing
Traditional SaaS seat license models face structural risk as AI-driven token usage and consumption-based pricing squeeze per-seat revenue.
"SALESFORCE, WORKDAY, SERVICE NOW. THESE ARE GOOD COMPANIES... THE SEAT LICENSE MODEL WILL BE UNDER A LOT OF PRESSURE. YOU SEE THE TOKEN USAGE, AND THE MINUTE YOU SEE AN ANTHROPIC…"
11:03
$AMD
···
AMD
MEDtodd·Bloomberg Tech·last month·Anthropic's Revenue Jump, Wealthy Bet on SpaceX | Bloomberg Tech 8/17/2026
AMD's MI450 ramp and non-competitive compute strategy seen as well positioned
AMD's upcoming MI450 ramp and strategy of providing compute without competing with customers positions it well in the AI infrastructure buildout.
"THEIR 450 RAMP LOOKS PROMISING, AND THEY ARE SHOWING UP WITH A WHOLE RANGE OF COMPUTE AND NOT COMPETING WITH CUSTOMERS AS MUCH. THAT IS A COMPANY THAT IS VERY WELL POSITIONED IN C…"
10:15
$CRM
···
Salesforce
MEDtodd·Bloomberg Tech·last month·Anthropic's Revenue Jump, Wealthy Bet on SpaceX | Bloomberg Tech 8/17/2026
SaaS seat license model under pressure from AI token-based pricing
Traditional SaaS seat license models face structural risk as AI-driven token usage and consumption-based pricing squeeze per-seat revenue.
"SALESFORCE, WORKDAY, SERVICE NOW. THESE ARE GOOD COMPANIES... THE SEAT LICENSE MODEL WILL BE UNDER A LOT OF PRESSURE. YOU SEE THE TOKEN USAGE, AND THE MINUTE YOU SEE AN ANTHROPIC…"
11:03
$NOW
···
ServiceNow
MEDtodd·Bloomberg Tech·last month·Anthropic's Revenue Jump, Wealthy Bet on SpaceX | Bloomberg Tech 8/17/2026
SaaS seat license model under pressure from AI token-based pricing
Traditional SaaS seat license models face structural risk as AI-driven token usage and consumption-based pricing squeeze per-seat revenue.
"SALESFORCE, WORKDAY, SERVICE NOW. THESE ARE GOOD COMPANIES... THE SEAT LICENSE MODEL WILL BE UNDER A LOT OF PRESSURE. YOU SEE THE TOKEN USAGE, AND THE MINUTE YOU SEE AN ANTHROPIC…"
11:03
$CRM
···
Salesforce
MEDtodd·Bloomberg Tech·last month·Anthropic's Revenue Jump, Wealthy Bet on SpaceX | Bloomberg Tech 8/17/2026
Todd sees seat-license SaaS model under existential pressure from AI token pricing
Traditional seat-license software models (Salesforce, Workday, ServiceNow) face structural risk as AI token-based pricing squeezes per-seat revenue.
"YEAH, SO SALESFORCE, WORKDAY, SERVICE NOW. THESE ARE GOOD COMPANIES. BUT THE SEAT LICENSE MODEL WILL BE UNDER A LOT OF PRESSURE. YOU SEE THE TOKEN USAGE, AND THE MINUTE YOU SEE AN…"
11:03
$AMD
···
Advanced Micro Devices
MEDtodd·Bloomberg Tech·last month·Anthropic's Revenue Jump, Wealthy Bet on SpaceX | Bloomberg Tech 8/17/2026
Todd favors AMD over Nvidia for compute positioning and less circular financing risk
AMD's 450 ramp looks promising with a whole range of compute offerings and less customer competition than Nvidia, making it very well positioned in compute.
"WE THINK COMPANIES LIKE AMD, WHICH HAS GREAT TECHNOLOGY -- THEIR 450 RAMP LOOKS PROMISING, AND THEY ARE SHOWING UP WITH A WHOLE RANGE OF COMPUTE AND NOT COMPETING WITH CUSTOMERS A…"
10:15
$WDAY
···
Workday
MEDtodd·Bloomberg Tech·last month·Anthropic's Revenue Jump, Wealthy Bet on SpaceX | Bloomberg Tech 8/17/2026
Todd sees seat-license SaaS model under existential pressure from AI token pricing
Traditional seat-license software models (Salesforce, Workday, ServiceNow) face structural risk as AI token-based pricing squeezes per-seat revenue.
"YEAH, SO SALESFORCE, WORKDAY, SERVICE NOW. THESE ARE GOOD COMPANIES. BUT THE SEAT LICENSE MODEL WILL BE UNDER A LOT OF PRESSURE. YOU SEE THE TOKEN USAGE, AND THE MINUTE YOU SEE AN…"
11:03
$NOW
···
ServiceNow
MEDtodd·Bloomberg Tech·last month·Anthropic's Revenue Jump, Wealthy Bet on SpaceX | Bloomberg Tech 8/17/2026
Todd sees seat-license SaaS model under existential pressure from AI token pricing
Traditional seat-license software models (Salesforce, Workday, ServiceNow) face structural risk as AI token-based pricing squeezes per-seat revenue.
"YEAH, SO SALESFORCE, WORKDAY, SERVICE NOW. THESE ARE GOOD COMPANIES. BUT THE SEAT LICENSE MODEL WILL BE UNDER A LOT OF PRESSURE. YOU SEE THE TOKEN USAGE, AND THE MINUTE YOU SEE AN…"
11:03
$NVDA
···
Nvidia
MEDtodd·Bloomberg Tech·last month·Anthropic's Revenue Jump, Wealthy Bet on SpaceX | Bloomberg Tech 8/17/2026
Todd warns on GPU asset class durability and circular financing, prefers second-order winners
GPUs may become an asset class but face durability risk from memory bottlenecks and architecture changes in 5-10 years; circular financing in Nvidia's ecosystem creates risk for longer-term investors.
"I THINK IT CAN, BUT ONE OF THE THINGS WE THE DURATION OF THE INNOVATION. WE WILL SEE INCREDIBLE NEW ARCHITECTURES. WE KNOW THAT MEMORY IS AN INCREDIBLE BOTTLENECK RIGHT NOW. WHAT…"
6:30
8
Grid & Power Infrastructuretailwind
Physical infrastructure bottlenecks emerge as durable AI investment thesis
The AI buildout is creating multi-year bottlenecks in energy, power, industrial gases, and materials that offer more durable investment returns than rapidly evolving GPU compute.
8
AI Infrastructuretailwind
Physical bottlenecks (energy, gases, materials) are the durable AI investment layer
AI buildout is constrained by 5-15 year physical bottlenecks — purified gases, power, electrons, aggregate — creating a long-term bankable asset class beyond GPU cycles.
8
AI Economics & Business Modelsheadwind
Token-based AI pricing structurally disrupts seat-license SaaS revenue models
Anthropic's $11.5B quarterly revenue and OpenAI's $40B run rate demonstrate AI monetization shifting from per-seat to consumption-based, threatening traditional SaaS pricing power.
8
SaaS Business Modelsheadwind
AI token economics threaten traditional SaaS seat license model
As AI adoption shifts software pricing from per-seat to consumption-based tokens, traditional SaaS companies face structural revenue pressure despite strong current positions.
7
Data Center Infrastructuremixed
GPU financing emerges as new asset class but faces circular risk and innovation duration mismatch
Wall Street firms channeling third-party capital into GPU clusters creates asset class dynamics, but depreciation schedules misalign with rapid architecture turnover and memory bottlenecks.
7
Memory & Storagemixed
Memory bottleneck creates near-term opportunity but long-term architecture risk
Memory is a critical near-term bottleneck in AI infrastructure, but new architectures may compress memory needs in 5-10 years, creating durability risk for current memory investments.