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sam rubin

T2 · manager / operator

CEO since March 2020; previously General Manager at Thorlabs running imaging systems division; co-founded optical communication startup XLite Photonic; engineering degree from Ben Gurion University and MBA from NYU Stern.

16 calls·6 names·81% bull·last heard 2 months ago·Michael Sikand
track record

no scored calls yet — needs a stated position or a categorical verdict, with a matured window vs SPY

top calls

highest conviction · one per company
1sthigh conviction
$LPTHLight Path Technologiesposition

Light Path CEO sees doubling revenue trajectory driven by germanium-free optics and vertical integration

Black Diamond glass portfolio (18 of 20 materials exclusive) outperforms germanium on weight, cost, and temperature resilience; vertical integration via acquisitions (G5 Infrared, Visimid, Amorphous Materials) captures more margin; revenue doubling annually from $37M to $70M to $100M+ with $110M backlog representing scheduled deliveries.

Michael Sikand2026-08episode →
2ndhigh conviction
$LMTLockheed Martin

Lockheed's NGSRI missile approach has 'enormous' cost/size/weight advantages over Raytheon

Lockheed's Next Generation Short Range Interceptor (NGSRI) design passed guided flight test and outperforms Raytheon's competing approach on cost, size, and weight; Light Path supplies the infrared seeker, making it a key content winner if Lockheed wins the ~$50-100M/year program.

Michael Sikand2026-08episode →
3rdhigh conviction
$ANDURILAnduril Industries

CEO confirms Anduril as >10% customer, praises speed and cultural alignment

Anduril is becoming Light Path's largest customer (>10% of revenue) across multiple counter-UAS programs; they move fast without legacy prime bureaucracy, sharing similar 'newcomer DNA' that enables rapid iteration.

Michael Sikand2026-08episode →

most discussed · click a bar to filter

  • $LPTH
  • $LMT
  • $PERFORMANCE-DRONE-WORKS
  • $ANDURIL
  • $RTX

recurring themes

  • Defense Tech3
  • Robotics & Physical AI2
  • Space Economy2
  • Advanced Manufacturing2
  • Critical Minerals & Supply Chain1
16 total
$LMT
···
Lockheed Martin
MEDsam rubin·Michael Sikand·2 months ago·I Interviewed The CEO Of A Drone Stock Supplying Anduril Growing 109%
Lockheed's NGSRI missile with Light Path optics passes critical flight test
Lockheed's innovative NGSRI approach using Light Path's germanium-free infrared materials passed guided flight test, demonstrating superior cost/size/weight vs Raytheon's traditional design; positions Lockheed as likely winner for Stinger replacement program worth billions.
"In May, 3 months ago, I think Loheed announced that we passed a major test and that is a guided flight test. The biggest hurdle we had. So we proved that our very innovative appro…"
19:00
$PERFORMANCE-DRONE-WORKS
Performance Drone Works
MEDsam rubin·Michael Sikand·2 months ago·I Interviewed The CEO Of A Drone Stock Supplying Anduril Growing 109%
PDW's $820M Pentagon loan signals government manufacturing scale-up Light Path may access
Pentagon Office of Strategic Capital's $820M loan to PDW demonstrates new federal funding vehicles for domestic drone manufacturing; Light Path in active discussions with multiple DoD capital vehicles (loans, equity, grants) to scale manufacturing capacity beyond $110M backlog.
"We are in discussion with multiple different vehicles like that inside DOW and I'm pretty sure we're gonna there's going to be something... Definitely going to have something comi…"
15:00
$ANDURIL
Anduril Industries
MEDsam rubin·Michael Sikand·2 months ago·I Interviewed The CEO Of A Drone Stock Supplying Anduril Growing 109%
Anduril becoming Light Path's largest customer at >10% revenue with counter-UAS focus
Anduril embeds Light Path cameras and optical assemblies across multiple counter-UAS programs; moves fast without legacy prime constraints; shares similar newcomer DNA; relationship expanding beyond components to complete subsystems.
"They're by far becoming one of our largest customers, more than 10% of our business for sure... They move fast. We love moving fast. Um, and they don't let any of their history or…"
11:00
$LPTH
···
Light Path Technologies
MEDsam rubin·Michael Sikand·2 months ago·I Interviewed The CEO Of A Drone Stock Supplying Anduril Growing 109%
NGSRI Stinger replacement program could add $50-100M/year with Lockheed partnership
Light Path's innovative heat-seeking missile approach on Lockheed's NGSRI bid passed guided flight test; offers enormous cost, size, and weight advantages over Raytheon's approach; 50/50 win probability but army could split award; would be transformational for a ~$70M revenue company.
"If we win this, it would be the size that we set... the advantages of our missile in cost, size, and weight are just enormous compared to the approach RAM is taking. And in May, 3…"
18:00
$LPTH
···
Light Path Technologies
HIGHsam rubin·Michael Sikand·2 months ago·I Interviewed The CEO Of A Drone Stock Supplying Anduril Growing 109%· position
Light Path CEO sees doubling revenue trajectory driven by germanium-free optics and vertical integration
Black Diamond glass portfolio (18 of 20 materials exclusive) outperforms germanium on weight, cost, and temperature resilience; vertical integration via acquisitions (G5 Infrared, Visimid, Amorphous Materials) captures more margin; revenue doubling annually from $37M to $70M to $100M+ with $110M backlog representing scheduled deliveries.
"Our materials are an alternative to Germania, but also perform far better in many many aspects. Of the 20 materials that we have, 18 of them are completely exclusive to us. No one…"
5:30
$RTX
···
RTX Corporation
MEDsam rubin·Michael Sikand·2 months ago·I Interviewed The CEO Of A Drone Stock Supplying Anduril Growing 109%
Raytheon's NGSRI approach at significant disadvantage to Lockheed-Light Path design
Raytheon's competing NGSRI missile design uses conventional approach with far higher cost, size, and weight vs Lockheed's Light Path-enabled innovation; army unlikely to choose Raytheon given enormous disadvantages though split buy possible.
"The cost of the missile size and weight of it is so much smaller compared to the Rafian approach that to me it's almost a no-brainer that you know why would the army even not why…"
19:30
$PERFORMANCE-DRONE-WORKS
Performance Drone Works
MEDsam rubin·Michael Sikand·2 months ago·I Interviewed The CEO Of A Drone Stock Supplying Anduril Growing 109%
PDW's $820M Pentagon loan signals government manufacturing scale-up; Light Path in similar talks
Pentagon Office of Strategic Capital provided $820M loan to PDW for drone manufacturing; Light Path is in active discussions with multiple DoD funding vehicles (loans, equity, grants) to scale its own manufacturing capacity beyond $150-200M revenue.
"Performance Drone Works. They got a $820 million loan from the Pentagon Office of Strategic Capital... We are in discussion with multiple different vehicles like that inside DoD a…"
14:54
$RTX
···
RTX Corporation
MEDsam rubin·Michael Sikand·2 months ago·I Interviewed The CEO Of A Drone Stock Supplying Anduril Growing 109%
Raytheon's NGSRI approach inferior to Lockheed's on cost, size, weight per Light Path CEO
Raytheon's competing Stinger replacement missile uses a heavier, costlier design; Light Path CEO believes Army will favor Lockheed's approach given 'enormous' advantages, though a split buy is possible.
"The advantages of our missile in cost, size, and weight are just enormous compared to the approach Raytheon is taking... to me it's almost a no-brainer that you know why would the…"
18:45
$LMT
···
Lockheed Martin
HIGHsam rubin·Michael Sikand·2 months ago·I Interviewed The CEO Of A Drone Stock Supplying Anduril Growing 109%
Lockheed's NGSRI missile approach has 'enormous' cost/size/weight advantages over Raytheon
Lockheed's Next Generation Short Range Interceptor (NGSRI) design passed guided flight test and outperforms Raytheon's competing approach on cost, size, and weight; Light Path supplies the infrared seeker, making it a key content winner if Lockheed wins the ~$50-100M/year program.
"The advantages of our missile in cost, size, and weight are just enormous compared to the approach Raytheon is taking... In May, 3 months ago, Lockheed announced that we passed a…"
18:45
$ANDURIL
Anduril Industries
HIGHsam rubin·Michael Sikand·2 months ago·I Interviewed The CEO Of A Drone Stock Supplying Anduril Growing 109%
CEO confirms Anduril as >10% customer, praises speed and cultural alignment
Anduril is becoming Light Path's largest customer (>10% of revenue) across multiple counter-UAS programs; they move fast without legacy prime bureaucracy, sharing similar 'newcomer DNA' that enables rapid iteration.
"They're by far becoming one of our largest customers, more than 10% of our business for sure... We definitely enjoy working with them. They move fast. We love moving fast... they…"
10:39
9
Defense Techtailwind
Rearmament cycle driving structural demand with multi-decade program lock-in
European NATO members now spending well above 2% GDP on defense; Gulf conflict munitions consumption requires years of replenishment; defense programs have 10+ year lifecycles with foreign military sales and sustainment revenue, unlike 3-year data center hardware cycles.
9
Critical Minerals & Supply Chaintailwind
China's germanium export ban creates mandatory substitution tailwind for germanium-free optics
US military banned from using Chinese-controlled germanium in optics; Light Path's 20-material Black Diamond portfolio (18 exclusive) not only replaces germanium but outperforms on weight, cost, temperature resilience; NDAA requirements eliminating waivers forces adoption.
8
Defense Techtailwind
European rearmament driving structural defense spending surge beyond market sentiment
European countries now spending well above 2% GDP on defense (Germany, Spain leading); Gulf conflict munitions depletion requires massive replenishment; CEO sees doubling revenue annually as new norm, contradicting weak market sentiment.
8
AI Hardware & Chip Architecturetailwind
Infrared/thermal imaging proliferating across all platforms as technology costs plummet
Thermal cameras now standard on every firefighter vs chief-only 10 years ago; infrared sees through smoke, darkness, clouds at 15+ mile ranges; becoming embedded in every drone, missile, border tower, and counter-UAS system; civilian and military adoption accelerating simultaneously.
8
Robotics & Physical AItailwind
Drone warfare creating massive optics attach opportunity with 75%+ US market share potential
US targeting 200,000 drones by 2027; Light Path supplies objective lenses for FPV drones ($10-30M/year) and complete camera systems for larger ISR drones (additional tens of millions); temperature-insensitive materials provide competitive moat; NDAA restrictions eliminate foreign competition.
8
Robotics & Physical AItailwind
FPV drone proliferation creates $10-30M/year near-term optics opportunity with 75%+ share potential
US targeting 200,000 drones by 2027; Light Path supplies objective lenses for FPV drones ($10-30M/year) and full camera systems for larger ISR drones; NDAA requirements eliminating waivers will force domestic optical supply, where Light Path is the US leader supplying 'pretty much everyone'.
8
Space Economytailwind
Proliferated LEO missile warning constellations could be transformational for optics suppliers
Missile Defense Agency and NRO shifting from bus-sized satellites to hundreds of smaller 'neighborhood satellites' in lower orbit; Light Path's lightweight optics enable this architecture with ~$5M content per satellite; multi-year qualification timeline but potential for massive scale.
8
Defense Techtailwind
Defense programs offer decade-plus lock-in vs 3-year data center hardware cycles
Once designed into defense program, supplier stays for 10+ years plus foreign military sales and aftermarket; Stinger served 40 years before replacement; contrasts with GPU/data center 3-year replacement cycles; justifies patience for long design-in periods.