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ryan

T2 · manager / operator

Host of the podcast (Long Strange Trip). Previously worked at PTC in the 1990s. Built HubSpot through 'founder mode' flat organization. Experimented with eliminating org charts/titles 4 years in but reverted due to lack of intelligence systems. Now exploring 'Dorsey mode' AI-centered organization.

9 calls·9 names·56% bull·last heard 12 days ago·Bloomberg Tech+1
track record

no scored calls yet — needs a stated position or a categorical verdict, with a matured window vs SPY

top calls

highest conviction · one per company
1sthigh conviction
$WDCWestern Digital

Western Digital rallies on memory/storage AI demand

Western Digital benefits from the same memory/storage bottleneck shift as Micron, with the stock seeing enormous gains as AI infrastructure spending prioritizes storage.

Bloomberg Tech2026-07→
2ndhigh conviction
$MSFTMicrosoft

Microsoft drops 20% on skepticism over AI capex returns

Microsoft has seen its worst month since December 2000 as investors question the return on aggressive AI spending, with cash flow pressure evident from equity raises and debt market tapping despite long-term optimism.

Bloomberg Tech2026-07→
3rdhigh conviction
$MUMicron Technology

Micron surges as memory becomes AI infrastructure bottleneck

Memory and storage stocks like Micron have seen enormous gains while Mag 7 underperforms, as the AI trade shifts focus to where the physical bottleneck is in infrastructure.

Bloomberg Tech2026-07→

most discussed · click a bar to filter

recurring themes

9 total
$SNDK
···
Sandisk
MEDryan·Bloomberg Tech·14 days ago
Sandisk plunges as memory prices surge 800% and peak earnings fears mount
Memory stocks like Sandisk have lost a third of their value in days after memory prices rose ~800%; investors worry about how much higher prices can be absorbed and whether earnings have peaked.
"ONE I WOULD HIGHLIGHT IS SANDISK, I BELIEVE ON TRACK FOR ITS THIRD STRAIGHT SESSION WITH A DOUBLE-DIGIT DROP. IT'S LOST A THIRD OF ITS VALUE IN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. PRICES ARE…"
25:29
$AMZN
···
Amazon
MEDryan·Bloomberg Tech·12 days ago
Amazon expected to deliver Microsoft-like AWS read with clear AI efficiency gains in logistics
AWS remains cloud leader and should show similar positive capex justification as Microsoft, with concrete examples of AI driving warehouse/logistics efficiency and improved profits — contrasting Meta's disappointing forecast.
"VERY CURIOUS ABOUT WHAT AMAZON HAS TO SAY ABOUT CAPEX. THERE WAS A LOT OF OPTIMISM THAT ALL THIS SPENDING IS GOING TO PAY OFF AS THEY TALK ABOUT USING AI IN WAREHOUSES AND FOR LOG…"
24:41
$NVDA
···
Nvidia
MEDryan·Bloomberg Tech·25 days ago
Ryan sees Nvidia capex risk as chip space enters bear market on hyperscaler ROI doubts
Nvidia faces capex risk as investors question hyperscaler return on AI spending; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is on track for its biggest weekly drop since April 2025, and peak earnings may be priced in if hyperscalers pull back on investment.
"THERE'S BEEN A REAL REVERSAL AND MOMENTUM IN THE CHIP SPACE. THERE'S CONCERNS ABOUT THE INDEX UP SOMETHING NEARLY DOUBLE YOUR TODAY. A HUGE GAIN AND STILL UP QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY F…"
31:25
$AAPL
···
Apple
MEDryan·Bloomberg Tech·25 days ago
Apple emerges as safe-haven tech stock benefiting from AI capex rotation
Apple's lack of aggressive AI capital expenditure has become an asset; the stock is up over 20% in weeks as a safe haven from hyperscaler capex risk, with product catalysts including a foldable iPhone and agentic Siri driving an upgrade cycle that will overshadow memory cost increases.
"THAT IS WHAT IS INTERESTING ABOUT THIS TRADE RIGHT NOW. WHAT USED TO BE SEEN AS A REAL RISK FOR APPLE, THAT IT WAS NOT AGGRESSIVELY PURSUING AI THE WAY THAT SOME OF THE OTHER BIG…"
29:34
$GOOGL
···
Alphabet
MEDryan·Bloomberg Tech·last month
Alphabet holds up best in Mag 7 on Gemini, chips, YouTube, Waymo synergy
Alphabet has outperformed Mag 7 peers due to optimism around its full-stack AI position: Gemini models, custom chips, YouTube data, and Waymo autonomy working in concert.
"ALPHABET HAS DONE PRETTY WELL THIS YEAR. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF OPTIMISM AROUND ITS POSITION WITH AI, NOT ONLY GEMINI, BUT ALSO THE CHIPS BUSINESS, YOUTUBE, WAYMO. ALL OF…"
26:28
$WDC
···
Western Digital
HIGHryan·Bloomberg Tech·last month
Western Digital rallies on memory/storage AI demand
Western Digital benefits from the same memory/storage bottleneck shift as Micron, with the stock seeing enormous gains as AI infrastructure spending prioritizes storage.
"COMPANIES LIKE MICRON, SANDISK, WESTERN DIGITAL, THESE STOCKS HAVE SEEN ENORMOUS GAINS WHILE MICROSOFT IS DOWN MORE THAN 20%."
26:00
$MSFT
···
Microsoft
HIGHryan·Bloomberg Tech·last month
Microsoft drops 20% on skepticism over AI capex returns
Microsoft has seen its worst month since December 2000 as investors question the return on aggressive AI spending, with cash flow pressure evident from equity raises and debt market tapping despite long-term optimism.
"THERE IS A LOT MORE SKEPTICISM ABOUT MICROSOFT IN CONTRAST. THAT STOCK IS DOWN MORE THAN 20%. IT HAD ITS WORST MONTHLY PERFORMANCE SINCE DECEMBER 2000. THERE IS A LOT OF SKEPTICIS…"
26:54
$MU
···
Micron Technology
HIGHryan·Bloomberg Tech·last month
Micron surges as memory becomes AI infrastructure bottleneck
Memory and storage stocks like Micron have seen enormous gains while Mag 7 underperforms, as the AI trade shifts focus to where the physical bottleneck is in infrastructure.
"COMPANIES LIKE MICRON, SANDISK, WESTERN DIGITAL, THESE STOCKS HAVE SEEN ENORMOUS GAINS WHILE MICROSOFT IS DOWN MORE THAN 20%."
26:00
$CROSBY
Crosby
MEDryan·TBPN·2 months ago· position
Crosby publishes first legal negotiation benchmark: models score ~50%, tend to over-accept terms
Crosby (with Micro1) built benchmark measuring multi-turn lawyer negotiation. Models score 44-50% (GPT-5.5 50.5%, Gemini 45.1%, Opus 44.4%). Key flaw: models over-accept counterparty terms to keep deal moving — poor lawyering. Crosby's harness excels at Word doc editing; post-training on judgment/reasoning could push scores higher.
"the biggest thing was models are really likely to just say yes and accept some term because you want to keep the deal going and that was part of the instruction and that's just no…"
165:00