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ryan

T2 · manager / operator

Host of the podcast (Long Strange Trip). Previously worked at PTC in the 1990s. Built HubSpot through 'founder mode' flat organization. Experimented with eliminating org charts/titles 4 years in but reverted due to lack of intelligence systems. Now exploring 'Dorsey mode' AI-centered organization.

23 calls·15 names·48% bull·last heard 24 days ago·Bloomberg Tech+1
track record

no scored calls yet — needs a stated position or a categorical verdict, with a matured window vs SPY

top calls

highest conviction · one per company
1sthigh conviction
$AVGOBroadcom

Broadcom structures $60-100B SPV with Blackstone/Apollo to finance customer AI chip purchases

Broadcom is creating a special purpose vehicle financed by Blackstone and Apollo to raise up to $100B in debt (senior + junior tranches) that will buy Broadcom chips for customers; Broadcom guarantees significant portion, creating circular financing where chipmaker funds its own demand.

Bloomberg Tech2026-08episode →
2ndhigh conviction
$ANTHROPICAnthropic

Anthropic in talks to acquire Decart for $6B to optimize compute efficiency ahead of IPO

Anthropic is acquiring Decart to maximize compute efficiency across NVIDIA, TPU, and Amazon chips, addressing a critical bottleneck as AI vendors face compute crunch ahead of a potential October IPO.

Bloomberg Tech2026-08episode →
3rdhigh conviction
$WDCWestern Digital

Western Digital rallies on memory/storage AI demand

Western Digital benefits from the same memory/storage bottleneck shift as Micron, with the stock seeing enormous gains as AI infrastructure spending prioritizes storage.

Bloomberg Tech2026-07episode →

most discussed · click a bar to filter

  • $AAPL
  • $ANTHROPIC
  • $AVGO
  • $SOX
  • $APO

recurring themes

  • Memory & Storage5
  • AI Infrastructure4
  • AI Bubble / Capex Debate4
  • Semiconductors3
  • AI Agents1
23 total
$AAPL
···
Apple
MEDryan·Bloomberg Tech·2 months ago·China's Moonshot, Netflix's Slump & Greylock's $1.5B Bet | Bloomberg Tech 7/17/2026
Ryan: Apple as AI safe haven — up 20% in weeks on no capex risk, foldable iPhone and agentic Siri coming
Apple's lack of aggressive AI capex has become an asset as hyperscaler ROI questions mount; stock benefiting as safe haven with unique AI path, foldable iPhone and agentic Siri driving upgrade cycle that will overshadow memory cost increases.
"THAT IS WHAT IS INTERESTING ABOUT THIS TRADE RIGHT NOW. WHAT USED TO BE SEEN AS A REAL RISK FOR APPLE, THAT IT WAS NOT AGGRESSIVELY PURSUING AI THE WAY THAT SOME OF THE OTHER BIG…"
29:34
$SOX
···
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index
MEDryan·Bloomberg Tech·2 months ago·China's Moonshot, Netflix's Slump & Greylock's $1.5B Bet | Bloomberg Tech 7/17/2026
Ryan: Semiconductor index headed for bear market — peak earnings priced in, hyperscaler capex pullback risk
Real reversal in chip momentum; concerns about index up nearly double YTD but profit-taking and hyperscaler ROI questions feeding into chips; if hyperscalers pull back on AI spending due to lack of revenue flow-through, chip stocks face weaker growth forward.
"THERE'S BEEN A REAL REVERSAL AND MOMENTUM IN THE CHIP SPACE. THERE'S CONCERNS ABOUT THE INDEX UP SOMETHING NEARLY DOUBLE YOUR TODAY. A HUGE GAIN AND STILL UP QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY F…"
31:17
$AAPL
···
Apple
MEDryan·Bloomberg Tech·2 months ago·Microsoft Wins, Meta Faces Questions, Qualcomm Sees Supply Chain Challenges | Bloomberg Tech
Bloomberg equities frames Apple as 'AI safety trade' avoiding capex and disruption risks
Apple is uniquely positioned as an AI hedge: it avoids massive capex spending, isn't disrupted by AI software, and its hardware dominance lets it absorb memory cost inflation better than lower-end peers while passing costs to consumers via foldable iPhone.
"IF WE LOOK AT A LOT OF THE MAJOR THEMES IN THE MARKET THIS YEAR AS IT PERTAINS TO TECH, APPLE IS SEPARATE FROM ALL OF THEM. IF YOU ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE LEVEL OF AI SPENDING, AP…"
25:45
$AAPL
···
Apple
MEDryan·Bloomberg Tech·24 days ago·Anthropic’s Compute Bet, Musk on AI, Apple’s New CEO | Bloomberg Tech 9/01/2026
Analyst: Apple's negative AI correlation makes it hedge as AI sentiment sours
Apple stock negatively correlates with AI/semiconductor stocks because it invests less aggressively in AI, making it a rotation beneficiary when AI sentiment deteriorates.
"Apple has had the pronounced negative correlation with AI, it is very negative correlation to semiconductor stocks, the Nasdaq 100. The idea that because Apple isn't aggressively…"
25:21
$ANTHROPIC
Anthropic
HIGHryan·Bloomberg Tech·last month·Anthropic in Talks for $6 Billion AI Infrastructure Bet | Bloomberg Tech 8/13/2026
Anthropic in talks to acquire Decart for $6B to optimize compute efficiency ahead of IPO
Anthropic is acquiring Decart to maximize compute efficiency across NVIDIA, TPU, and Amazon chips, addressing a critical bottleneck as AI vendors face compute crunch ahead of a potential October IPO.
"Anthropic is in talks to buy Decart AI for about $6 billion... Decart does something else that will be appealing to Anthropic as it hopes to get the most out of its compute... max…"
0:45
$AAPL
···
Apple
MEDryan·Bloomberg Tech·last month·Anthropic’s $65 Billion Surge, OpenAI’s Teen Push | Bloomberg Tech 8/18/2026
Ryan: Apple trades as anti-AI hedge inversely correlated to semiconductors
Apple has become inversely correlated with AI-related stocks, acting as a safe-haven quality trade when AI capex concerns rise and benefiting if the AI trade unwinds due to its lack of infrastructure spending risk.
"WHAT I WOULD SAY IS INTERESTING IS THE DEGREE TO WHICH APPLE HAS BECOME INVERSELY CORRELATED WITH THE REST OF TECH. SEMICONDUCTOR STOCKS IN PARTICULAR. YOU ARE SEEING THIS TODAY W…"
19:54
$AVGO
···
Broadcom
HIGHryan·Bloomberg Tech·last month·Anthropic Preps for Blockbuster Public Listing | Bloomberg Tech 8/21/2026
Broadcom structures $60-100B SPV with Blackstone/Apollo to finance customer AI chip purchases
Broadcom is creating a special purpose vehicle financed by Blackstone and Apollo to raise up to $100B in debt (senior + junior tranches) that will buy Broadcom chips for customers; Broadcom guarantees significant portion, creating circular financing where chipmaker funds its own demand.
"BROADCOM IS ESSENTIALLY LOOKING TO RAISE A SPECIAL PURPOSE VEHICLE THAT WOULD BE FINANCED BY OTHER PARTNERS... BROADCOM WOULD GO OUT WITH PARTNERS AND LOOK TO RAISE A CHUNK OF MON…"
8:19
$APO
···
Apollo Global Management
MEDryan·Bloomberg Tech·last month·Anthropic Preps for Blockbuster Public Listing | Bloomberg Tech 8/21/2026
Apollo joins Blackstone in guaranteeing Broadcom SPV junior debt for AI chip financing
Apollo is partnering with Blackstone to guarantee the junior tranche of Broadcom's up to $100B SPV debt facility, enabling customers to finance AI chip purchases off Broadcom's balance sheet.
"THE JUNIOR PIECE WOULD BE ESSENTIALLY GUARANTEED BY BLACKSTONE AND APOLLO."
10:27
$BX
···
Blackstone
MEDryan·Bloomberg Tech·last month·Anthropic Preps for Blockbuster Public Listing | Bloomberg Tech 8/21/2026
Blackstone partners with Broadcom and Apollo on AI infrastructure SPV
Blackstone and Apollo are providing capital for Broadcom's SPV, with the junior debt tranche essentially guaranteed by these private equity firms, extending their June partnership to finance 1GW compute capacity.
"THEY ANNOUNCED A PARTNERSHIP WITH BLACKSTONE AND APOLLO IN JUNE THAT WAS TO FINANCE A ONE GIGAWATT CAPACITY COMPUTE... THE JUNIOR PIECE WOULD BE ESSENTIALLY GUARANTEED BY BLACKSTO…"
9:06
$AVGO
···
Broadcom
HIGHryan·Bloomberg Tech·last month·Anthropic Preps for Blockbuster Public Listing | Bloomberg Tech 8/21/2026
Broadcom structures $100B SPV with Blackstone/Apollo to finance customer chip purchases
Broadcom is creating a special purpose vehicle backed by $70B senior debt and $30B junior debt (guaranteed by Blackstone/Apollo) to help customers buy its AI chips, guaranteeing a chunk of debt to lower financing costs — a novel circular financing model mirroring Nvidia's approach.
"BROADCOM IS ESSENTIALLY LOOKING TO RAISE A SPECIAL PURPOSE VEHICLE THAT WOULD BE FINANCED BY OTHER PARTNERS... BROADCOM IS GOING TO ACTUALLY EFFECTIVELY GUARANTEE A SIGNIFICANT CH…"
8:19
8
AI Infrastructuretailwind
Compute optimization layer emerges as critical scarce asset for frontier AI labs
Frontier labs (Anthropic) are acquiring optimization technology (Decart) to maximize efficiency across heterogeneous chip fleets, signaling compute efficiency has become a strategic bottleneck worth billions.
8
AI Infrastructuretailwind
Novel SPV debt structures emerge to fund AI chip purchases as capex balloons
Broadcom's $60-100B SPV with Blackstone/Apollo and similar Nvidia-backed structures represent a new evolution in AI infrastructure financing where chipmakers guarantee customer debt to pull forward demand, raising circularity concerns but enabling massive off-balance-sheet buildout.
8
AI Bubble / Capex Debateheadwind
Growing skepticism on AI capex ROI across hyperscalers after Alphabet earnings
Alphabet's strong quarter failed to convince investors AI spending pays off; Microsoft and Meta face higher bar to justify capex growing faster than cloud revenue; market demanding visibility on returns, cash flow impact, and monetization path.
8
Semiconductorsheadwind
Chip selloff deepens as AI spending outlook questioned
Hyperscaler cash flow deterioration and Chinese AI efficiency gains are causing investors to question the durability of AI chip demand, triggering a broad semiconductor correction.
8
AI Infrastructuremixed
Hyperscaler capex remains massive but investors question sustainability
Meta, Microsoft, and BlackRock are deploying billions into AI data centers, yet hyperscalers are turning cash-flow negative, prompting debate over how long the market will tolerate such spending before demanding returns.
8
Memory & Storageheadwind
Memory chip stocks correct sharply after 800% price surge and peak earnings fears
Memory prices have skyrocketed ~800% since August, driving stocks like Sandisk and Micron to extreme gains; now investors worry about price absorption limits and whether earnings have peaked, causing a violent pullback.
8
AI Bubble / Capex Debateheadwind
Investors scrutinize AI spending as hyperscaler cash flow deteriorates
Alphabet's capex guidance and cash-flow negativity have triggered a broader reassessment: the market is questioning how long hyperscalers can sustain massive AI infrastructure spend without clearer ROI, pressuring chip and memory stocks.
8
AI Bubble / Capex Debatemixed
Big Tech capex scrutiny intensifies after Alphabet fails to convince on AI ROI
Alphabet's strong quarter couldn't quell skepticism on AI spend payoff, raising the bar for Microsoft and Meta to justify capex growing faster than cloud revenue; SK Hynix's record $31B capex adds to supply-side evidence of sustained investment.