TickerTain
$SPCX····$NVDA····$MSFT····$GOOGL····$ANTHROPIC·$TSLA····$CRWV····$NBIS····$HIMS····$TSM····$ASML····$FIGURE·$LYFT····$UBER····$SNOW····$META····$ELEVENLABS·$CURSOR·$COGNITION·$OPENAI·$AAPL····$RKLB····$XAI·$AMZN····$AMD····$000660.KS····$INTC····
←

richard craig

T2 · manager / operator

Founded quant hedge fund Numerai in 2015; background in mathematics and early AI; runs factor-neutral, low-volatility strategy targeting pure alpha; early LP in Polychain Capital.

4 calls·4 names·50% bull·last heard 11 days ago·TBPN
track record

no scored calls yet — needs a stated position or a categorical verdict, with a matured window vs SPY

top calls

highest conviction · one per company
1sthigh conviction
$NUMERA-AINumera.aiposition

Richard Craig explains Numera.ai's pure alpha strategy: hedging thousands of factor risks with high leverage but low volatility

True alpha requires neutralizing all factor risks (market, momentum, sector) so returns are uncorrelated; Numera uses high leverage on a tightly risk-constrained portfolio to achieve meaningful returns with one-tenth the volatility of directional funds.

TBPN2026-07→
2ndhigh conviction
$NUMERAINumeraiposition

Numerai targets pure alpha via factor-neutral, low-volatility quant strategy

Numerai hedges thousands of risk factors to isolate true alpha, uses leverage to scale a low-volatility core strategy, aims for consistent 9% alpha annually rather than high-beta bets.

TBPN2026-07→
3rdmedium conviction
$POLYCHAINPolychain Capitalposition

Richard Craig invested in Polychain as crypto analog to high-volatility concentrated funds

Polychain represented the crypto version of a concentrated, high-volatility fund; Richard was first and largest LP but didn't expect 1000% returns to persist, viewing it as a risk-taking vehicle for portfolio marginal allocation.

TBPN2026-07→

most discussed · click a bar to filter

recurring themes

4 total
$NUMERA-AI
Numera.ai
HIGHrichard craig·TBPN·11 days ago· position
Richard Craig explains Numera.ai's pure alpha strategy: hedging thousands of factor risks with high leverage but low volatility
True alpha requires neutralizing all factor risks (market, momentum, sector) so returns are uncorrelated; Numera uses high leverage on a tightly risk-constrained portfolio to achieve meaningful returns with one-tenth the volatility of directional funds.
"We're trying to make alpha which is a kind of an a technical term like we can't take any market risk. We can't take any factor risk... we're trying to hedge to things so many thin…"
38:53
$POLYCHAIN
Polychain Capital
MEDrichard craig·TBPN·11 days ago· position
Richard Craig invested in Polychain as crypto analog to high-volatility concentrated funds
Polychain represented the crypto version of a concentrated, high-volatility fund; Richard was first and largest LP but didn't expect 1000% returns to persist, viewing it as a risk-taking vehicle for portfolio marginal allocation.
"There was a fund, it was basically the crypto version of this was a fund called Polychain and I was a big LP in that. In fact, the first LP and the biggest I think the biggest one…"
53:00
$AMZN
···
Amazon
LOWrichard craig·TBPN·11 days ago· position
Numerai founder bought Amazon calls personally, calls it a gamble not alpha
Richard bought Amazon call options based on friend's tip and AI tailwind, made 300%, but explicitly states this is not alpha—just a compensated risk bet that any investor could replicate without fees.
"I bought some call options on Amazon. I'm a hedge fund manager. You know, I don't really trade very much, but I just think it's a cool company and it's going to benefit from AI. M…"
44:34
$NUMERAI
Numerai
HIGHrichard craig·TBPN·11 days ago· position
Numerai targets pure alpha via factor-neutral, low-volatility quant strategy
Numerai hedges thousands of risk factors to isolate true alpha, uses leverage to scale a low-volatility core strategy, aims for consistent 9% alpha annually rather than high-beta bets.
"We're trying to make alpha which is a kind of a technical term like we can't take any market risk. We can't take any factor risk. We can't go off on anything we think is something…"
37:44