phil trammell

If open models trail frontier by only 6-9 months, AGI becomes like electricity — broadly accessible, gains diffused to users — enabling countries and individuals to index via public markets. If closed labs maintain large leads, wealth concentrates and indexing fails. The outcome hinges on technical forecasting (recursive self-improvement, online learning) and policy.

Under 20% of US non-tiny market cap is private, but AI returns are concentrated in private labs (OpenAI, Anthropic). However, AI itself may reduce IPO frictions (disclosure, compliance), and labs need broad investor access — suggesting the long-term trend toward easier indexing will resume despite recent privatization.