Venture investor and former professor; provides macro perspective on AI capex cycle, debt markets, and historical analogues for infrastructure bubbles.
no scored calls yet — needs a stated position or a categorical verdict, with a matured window vs SPY
Amazon issued 40-year debt at only 80 basis points over Treasuries, which Kedrosky calls 'ridiculous' given uncertainty about company existence in 40 years; tight spreads on ultra-long tenor reflect complacency about AI data center debt loads.
Nvidia's current market dominance mirrors 1920s electrical companies that commanded >50% market cap before the 1929 crash; naive extrapolation of training-driven demand ignores exhausted training corpus and shifting inference economics, making overinvestment and failure inevitable.
CoreWeave's CDS have almost doubled, signaling sharply rising credit risk for GPU cloud providers heavily leveraged to AI data center buildout; reflects broader repricing of debt for companies in the AI infrastructure supply chain.