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patrick soheili

T2 · manager / operator

Co-founded Eliyan; previously worked in semiconductor industry; provides deep technical perspective on memory bottleneck, hyperscaler custom silicon, and interconnect landscape.

9 calls·3 names·56% bull·last heard last month·The Information
track record

no scored calls yet — needs a stated position or a categorical verdict, with a matured window vs SPY

top calls

highest conviction · one per company
1sthigh conviction
$MUMicron Technology

Memory bottleneck structural: only 3 suppliers, years to add capacity

Memory supply remains a structural bottleneck with only Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron having capacity at leading-edge geometries; building new fabs takes years and billions, while AI demand is insatiable and not letting up.

The Information2026-08episode →
2ndhigh conviction
$NVDANvidia

Hyperscalers building custom silicon to reduce Nvidia dependency; Vera Rubin rollout progressing but ecosystem fragmenting

Nvidia's Vera Rubin rollout is going well, but all major hyperscalers (Google TPU v8→v9→v10, AWS Trainium, Microsoft Maia, Meta MTIA, Alibaba/Tencent/Baidu) are developing proprietary accelerators to cut costs and optimize for their workloads; they need open interconnect technology like Eliyan's because Nvidia keeps its NVLink proprietary.

The Information2026-08episode →
3rdmedium conviction
$GOOGLAlphabet

Google TPU roadmap advancing to v10 as hyperscalers vertically integrate custom AI silicon

Google's TPU program is now at generation 8 moving to 9 and eventually 10, exemplifying the hyperscaler trend of building proprietary accelerators to reduce Nvidia reliance and optimize for internal AI workloads.

The Information2026-08episode →

most discussed · click a bar to filter

  • $MU
  • $NVDA
  • $GOOGL

recurring themes

  • Memory & Storage3
  • AI Hardware & Chip Architecture1
  • Semiconductors1
  • AI Infrastructure1
9 total
$MU
···
Micron Technology
MEDpatrick soheili·The Information·last month·Can Big Tech’s AI Chips Rival Nvidia?
Micron among three memory suppliers at full capacity, structural bottleneck persists for years
Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix are the only suppliers of advanced HBM/DRAM for AI systems; all are at capacity, and building new leading-edge fabs takes years and billions, creating a durable supply constraint that benefits incumbent memory makers.
"the world is effectively in a in a in a very tight bottleneck if you will. There's three suppliers that are at capacity. There are there's a concentration of very few customers th…"
0:29
$NVDA
···
Nvidia
MEDpatrick soheili·The Information·last month·Can Big Tech’s AI Chips Rival Nvidia?
Nvidia's moat challenged as hyperscalers build custom silicon with interconnect help
Nvidia executes well and holds dominant share, but hyperscalers are aggressively developing custom accelerators (TPUs, AWS, Microsoft, Meta, Chinese giants) to cut costs and reduce dependency; they need open interconnect technology — which Nvidia keeps proprietary — to make those custom chips competitive at scale.
"I think Nvidia does many many things right and well, hence the the market share and the position they've got in the marketplace. Um the the dynamic is a little bit different from…"
1:29
$MU
···
Micron Technology
HIGHpatrick soheili·The Information·last month·Inside Kalshi’s $4B+ in Annualized Revenue, Chip Infrastructure Startup Eliyan Hits Unicorn Status
Memory bottleneck structural: only 3 suppliers, years to add capacity
Memory supply remains a structural bottleneck with only Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron having capacity at leading-edge geometries; building new fabs takes years and billions, while AI demand is insatiable and not letting up.
"There's three suppliers that have capacity. There are there's a concentration of a very few customers that are buying most of that capacity. And just the way things are going, it'…"
13:11
$NVDA
···
Nvidia
MEDpatrick soheili·The Information·last month·Inside Kalshi’s $4B+ in Annualized Revenue, Chip Infrastructure Startup Eliyan Hits Unicorn Status
Hyperscalers building own chips need Eliyan's interconnect to compete with Nvidia
Nvidia's Vera Rubin rollout is going well, but hyperscalers (Google TPU v8-v10, AWS, Microsoft, Meta, Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu) are developing custom accelerators to reduce Nvidia dependency and need Eliyan's interconnect technology which Nvidia keeps proprietary.
"Vera Rubin does have a significant presence in the marketplace. But on top of that, a lot of these guys are developing their own chips coming up with their own solutions. I mean,…"
14:32
$GOOGL
···
Alphabet
MEDpatrick soheili·The Information·last month·Inside Kalshi’s $4B+ in Annualized Revenue, Chip Infrastructure Startup Eliyan Hits Unicorn Status
Google TPU roadmap advancing to v10 as hyperscalers vertically integrate custom AI silicon
Google's TPU program is now at generation 8 moving to 9 and eventually 10, exemplifying the hyperscaler trend of building proprietary accelerators to reduce Nvidia reliance and optimize for internal AI workloads.
"TPUs are now in generation 8 going to 9, eventually 10. Uh same thing, you know, lots of advances at AWS and Microsoft and Meta as well."
8:23
$NVDA
···
Nvidia
HIGHpatrick soheili·The Information·last month·Inside Kalshi’s $4B+ in Annualized Revenue, Chip Infrastructure Startup Eliyan Hits Unicorn Status
Hyperscalers building custom silicon to reduce Nvidia dependency; Vera Rubin rollout progressing but ecosystem fragmenting
Nvidia's Vera Rubin rollout is going well, but all major hyperscalers (Google TPU v8→v9→v10, AWS Trainium, Microsoft Maia, Meta MTIA, Alibaba/Tencent/Baidu) are developing proprietary accelerators to cut costs and optimize for their workloads; they need open interconnect technology like Eliyan's because Nvidia keeps its NVLink proprietary.
"All the hyperscalers have their own programs as well as buying Nvidia chips. So, Vera Rubin does have a significant presence in the marketplace. But on top of that, a lot of these…"
8:23
$MU
···
Micron
HIGHpatrick soheili·The Information·last month·Inside Kalshi’s $4B+ in Annualized Revenue, Chip Infrastructure Startup Eliyan Hits Unicorn Status
Memory bottleneck persists: only Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron have capacity; new fabs take years and billions
AI memory demand remains insatiable with only three suppliers (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron) able to produce at advanced nodes; capacity is concentrated among few hyperscaler customers and new fab construction requires multiple years and billions of dollars, ensuring tight supply for the foreseeable future.
"There's three suppliers that have capacity. There are there's a concentration of a very few customers that are buying most of that capacity. Um and just the way things are going,…"
8:23
$NVDA
···
Nvidia
MEDpatrick soheili·The Information·last month·Inside Kalshi’s $4B+ in Annualized Revenue, Chip Infrastructure Startup Eliyan Hits Unicorn Status
Hyperscalers building custom silicon to escape Nvidia markups; Vera Rubin rollout improving
Nvidia's Vera Rubin rollout going better than Blackwell, but all major hyperscalers (Google TPU v8→10, AWS, Microsoft, Meta, Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu) developing own accelerators to cut costs; Nvidia keeps proprietary interconnect closed, creating opening for Eliyan's technology.
"All the hyperscalers have their own programs as well as buying Nvidia chips... TPUs are now in generation 8 going to 9, eventually 10. Same thing, lots of advances at AWS and Micr…"
8:23
$MU
···
Micron
HIGHpatrick soheili·The Information·last month·Inside Kalshi’s $4B+ in Annualized Revenue, Chip Infrastructure Startup Eliyan Hits Unicorn Status
Memory bottleneck structural: only three suppliers, fabs take years and billions to scale
Memory capacity concentrated among Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron; building leading-edge fabs requires multiple years and billions of dollars, so supply cannot catch up to insatiable AI demand anytime soon.
"There are three suppliers that have capacity. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are working really hard to kind of get there and meet the industry's demand. Creating a fab that manufa…"
8:23
9
AI Hardware & Chip Architecturetailwind
Hyperscalers and merchant vendors converge on rack-scale integration to challenge Nvidia's system moat
Google (TPU v8-v10), AWS, Microsoft, Meta, Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu are maturing custom accelerators, while AMD, Intel, and Arm are moving into rack-level systems to optimize the full data path; this dual push — hyperscaler custom silicon and merchant rack-scale — creates a sustained demand for open interconnect and packaging technology that Nvidia keeps proprietary.
9
Memory & Storagetailwind
Structural memory shortage: three suppliers, concentrated demand, multi-year fab lead times
HBM and advanced memory supply is bottlenecked at Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron; hyperscaler demand is insatiable and concentrated, while new leading-edge memory fabs require years and billions to build, creating a persistent supply-demand imbalance that favors incumbents.
8
Memory & Storagetailwind
Structural HBM bottleneck: three suppliers, years to expand, insatiable AI demand
Only Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron can produce high-bandwidth memory at advanced nodes; all are at full capacity with no near-term relief because building new fabs takes years and billions, creating a persistent supply constraint that underpins pricing power for memory incumbents.
8
Semiconductorstailwind
Hyperscalers vertically integrating custom silicon to escape Nvidia tax and optimize workloads
Every major cloud provider (Google, AWS, Microsoft, Meta, Chinese giants) is investing heavily in proprietary AI accelerators (TPU, Trainium, Maia, MTIA, etc.) to reduce Nvidia dependency and tailor compute to their specific inference/training needs; this fragmentation creates demand for open, standards-based interconnect technology.
8
Memory & Storagetailwind
Structural memory supply constraint with only three capable suppliers
HBM and advanced memory production is concentrated in Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron; building new leading-edge fabs takes years and billions, while AI-driven demand is insatiable, creating a multi-year structural undersupply.
7
AI Infrastructuretailwind
Hyperscalers building custom silicon need merchant interconnect to challenge Nvidia
Major cloud providers (Google, AWS, Microsoft, Meta, Chinese giants) are developing custom AI accelerators to reduce Nvidia dependency, but require high-performance interconnect IP (like Eliyan's) that Nvidia keeps proprietary, creating a merchant market for chiplet/rack-scale connectivity.