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patrick collison

T2 · manager / operator

Co-founder and CEO of Stripe, the financial infrastructure company serving internet businesses around the world.

5 calls·2 names·80% bull·last heard 2 months ago·Y Combinator+1
track record

no scored calls yet — needs a stated position or a categorical verdict, with a matured window vs SPY

top calls

highest conviction · one per company
1sthigh conviction
$STRIPEStripeposition

Stripe CEO shares proprietary data showing startup formation at record 2x YoY growth

Stripe's Atlas incorporation data shows new business starts up ~2x year-over-year — the largest relative jump ever recorded — with median business performance improving and time to revenue declining, indicating a historically favorable environment for company building.

Y Combinator2026-07episode →
2ndlow conviction
$SQBlock

Block announces 45-50% headcount reduction tied to AI productivity gains

Block's significant workforce reduction attributed to AI efficiency gains signals aggressive AI adoption in fintech, though the broader productivity impact across roles remains unclear.

Stripe2026-03episode →

most discussed · click a bar to filter

  • $STRIPE
  • $SQ

recurring themes

  • AI Economics & Business Models3
  • Enterprise AI Adoption2
  • AI Bubble / Capex Debate2
  • AI Agents1
  • Payments & Banking Infrastructure1
5 total
$STRIPE
Stripe
HIGHpatrick collison·Y Combinator·2 months ago·Patrick Collison: Is AI Breaking the Lean Startup Playbook?· position
Stripe CEO shares proprietary data showing startup formation at record 2x YoY growth
Stripe's Atlas incorporation data shows new business starts up ~2x year-over-year — the largest relative jump ever recorded — with median business performance improving and time to revenue declining, indicating a historically favorable environment for company building.
"as I speak, the number of new businesses starting on Stripe is up around a bit under, but around 2x year-over-year, um, which again is the largest relative jump, uh, we've seen. U…"
25:35
$STRIPE
Stripe
HIGHpatrick collison·Y Combinator·2 months ago·Patrick Collison: Is AI Breaking the Lean Startup Playbook?· position
Stripe data shows 2x YoY surge in new business formation with improving unit economics
Stripe's real-time payments data reveals new business formation running at roughly 2x year-over-year — the largest relative jump ever recorded — while median business performance, time-to-revenue, and probability of hitting revenue milestones are all improving, suggesting AI is lowering barriers to entry and accelerating success rates.
"Looking at the Stripe data, one thing I will say that I think is germane to people here, um there are many more businesses getting started now than there were a year ago, like as…"
24:49
$SQ
···
Block
LOWpatrick collison·Stripe·7 months ago·Bret Taylor of Sierra on AI agents, outcome-based pricing, and the OpenAI board
Block announces 45-50% headcount reduction tied to AI productivity gains
Block's significant workforce reduction attributed to AI efficiency gains signals aggressive AI adoption in fintech, though the broader productivity impact across roles remains unclear.
"Block announced their 45%, 50% AI layoff yesterday... You've seen this in some corners."
74:20
$STRIPE
Stripe
HIGHpatrick collison·Stripe·7 months ago·Bret Taylor of Sierra on AI agents, outcome-based pricing, and the OpenAI board· position
Stripe's outcome-based pricing aligns incentives and drives merchant revenue uplift
Stripe's transaction-based pricing model creates vertical alignment with merchants; the company actively pushes customers to adopt revenue-maximizing features like local payment methods because both parties share in the outcome.
"We find this at Stripe where, again, we have outcome-based pricing. It's transactional. But we find there's a lot of uplift we can get on just getting people more revenue and find…"
68:50
$STRIPE
Stripe
HIGHpatrick collison·Stripe·4 months ago·Stripe Sessions 2026 | Keynote· position
Collison: Stripe processes 1.6% of global GDP, $1.9T volume up 34% YoY
Stripe's network effects are compounding as AI-driven business formation accelerates; 86% of Forbes AI 50 and 90% of Dow Jones companies already on platform, creating a data moat for fraud, conversion, and agentic commerce products.
"Businesses on the Stripe platform, all of you, collectively generated revenue that's equivalent to about 1.6% of total global GDP last year, quite remarkable. And this works out t…"
0:15
9
AI Agentstailwind
Agents becoming autonomous economic actors; payments shifting from moment to policy
Stripe and Meta leadership converge on agents handling discovery, checkout, and recurring spend via programmable guardrails; this requires new infrastructure (MPP, Link wallet for agents, Tempo) and unlocks a new commerce layer where agents transact at machine speed.
9
Enterprise AI Adoptiontailwind
Enterprises spring-loaded to buy from startups due to AI disruption fear
Large companies now perceive status quo as higher risk than adopting unproven startup solutions, creating unprecedented sales velocity for early-stage B2B companies — deals that used to take years now close in months.
8
AI Economics & Business Modelstailwind
AI favors ambitious, divergent starts over lean startup niche strategy
Patrick Collison argues the lean startup playbook — finding a tiny niche and expanding — is becoming hyper-competitive and easily replicated by AI coding agents, while capital and AI make it easier to launch ambitious, multi-capability ventures from day one (citing labs, Anduril as anti-lean successes).
8
AI Bubble / Capex Debatetailwind
Lean startup playbook breaking in AI era — ambitious beats iterative
With AI dramatically lowering cost of building complex systems, the traditional lean startup approach of narrow MVP then expand is becoming less competitive; founders should pursue more ambitious, differentiated starting points that decorrelate from crowded niches.
8
AI Economics & Business Modelstailwind
Collison: AI driving unprecedented startup formation boom per Stripe data
Stripe data shows new business starts up ~2x year-over-year—the largest relative increase ever—with median business outcomes improving and time to revenue falling, indicating AI lowers barriers to entry and accelerates scaling across the board.
8
AI Economics & Business Modelstailwind
AI driving decentralization not centralization per Stripe data
Contrary to fears of AI creating winner-take-all dynamics, Stripe data shows explosion in new business formation and improving success rates, suggesting AI is lowering barriers to entry and enabling broad-based prosperity rather than concentration.
8
Payments & Banking Infrastructuretailwind
Agent commerce requires rebuilding payment stack from scratch — identity, disputes, pricing, stablecoins
AI agents cannot use traditional banking (no SSN, no credit history). They will transact in stablecoins on new rails. The winner will be the platform that achieves 'SEO in the model' — becoming the default choice when agents decide how to pay.
8
Neoclouds & Cloud Computingtailwind
GCP's vast service catalog becomes a feature, not a bug, when AI agents orchestrate infrastructure via MCP
Google Cloud's complexity (thousands of services) is now an asset because AI agents (MCP) can navigate APIs, provision resources, and manage operations programmatically; this turns breadth into a competitive advantage as enterprises adopt AI-native cloud orchestration.