lewis black

China's shift from raw material supplier to downstream processor creates a permanent tungsten supply gap in the West; Chinese domestic demand growing 15% annually while mine output falls 3% annually, forcing China to become net importer and compete for same scarce Western supply.

China produces 80% of tungsten but is reducing primary production 3% annually while domestic demand grows 15%; China now net importer and restricting exports; Western recycling capacity insufficient for 5-6 years; only Almonty's Sang Dong mine coming online in West.

China's pivot from upstream raw materials to downstream finished components created a structural supply gap; Western tungsten production was near-zero for 30 years due to subsidized Chinese pricing; Almonty's Sang Dong mine is the only new Western supply coming online; price floor established at $1,000 (3-4x historical cost base) vs current $3,100.

China's shift from upstream raw materials to downstream finished components, combined with declining domestic mine output and rising demand, creates a structural tungsten supply deficit that will persist until Chinese recycling capacity matures in 5-6 years.

Tungsten hexafluoride gas is required to etch every semiconductor chip; no AI hardware without tungsten; China controls 97.4% of tungsten oxide supply; Almonty building midstream plant in Korea to create Western semiconductor-grade supply chain.

Tungsten hexafluoride gas required for every semiconductor chip; no substitution possible; AI hardware buildout completely dependent on tungsten supply; 97.4% of tungsten oxide currently from China.

Tungsten supply chain is inherently global: ore→oxide (Korea)→powder (Japan)→finishing (EU)→installation (US); US executive order banning Chinese/Russian/NK tungsten waivers accelerates friend-shoring; politicizing critical metals is counterproductive as value-add steps cross borders.

US defense industrial base expanding capacity; additional tungsten consumption will divert from civilian sectors (auto); Europe may allow Chinese downstream components to fill gaps, accelerating Chinese market share in finished goods.