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john coogan and jordi hays

T3 · host / generalist
1 call·1 name·100% bull·last heard 3 months ago·TBPN
track record

no scored calls yet — needs a stated position or a categorical verdict, with a matured window vs SPY

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$GOOGLAlphabet

Gemini demand overwhelms Google's capacity despite record AI capex

Google cannot fully satisfy Meta's Gemini demand even after roughly $200 billion of capital expenditure, demonstrating strong pricing power and an infrastructure bottleneck consistent with accelerating Google Cloud growth.

TBPN2026-06episode →

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  • $GOOGL

recurring themes

  • Open Source AI1
  • AI Infrastructure1
1 total
$GOOGL
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Alphabet
HIGHjohn coogan and jordi hays·TBPN·3 months ago·Open Source vs. Closed Source, Memory Chips Eat AI Profits, Comcast Restructures | Diet TBPN
Gemini demand overwhelms Google's capacity despite record AI capex
Google cannot fully satisfy Meta's Gemini demand even after roughly $200 billion of capital expenditure, demonstrating strong pricing power and an infrastructure bottleneck consistent with accelerating Google Cloud growth.
"It sounds extremely bullish for Google, like if they're out of this... this tracks with what they talk about on earnings calls. Google Cloud acceleration—crazy."
20:24
9
Open Source AIrisk
Open models compress the frontier labs' monetization window
Capable open-weight models can approach restricted frontier systems within months, limiting how long closed labs can charge a premium and undermining access-control policies that move more slowly than model diffusion.
9
AI Infrastructuretailwind
Token demand outruns even hyperscale infrastructure spending
Meta's inability to secure all the Gemini capacity it wants despite Google's enormous capital program shows that advanced-model compute remains structurally scarce, supporting cloud pricing power and further infrastructure investment.