Portfolio manager at Advisors Capital with deep semiconductor cycle expertise; focuses on durable moats in AI infrastructure and memory cycle risks.
no scored calls yet — needs a stated position or a categorical verdict, with a matured window vs SPY
Memory remains cyclical despite AI-driven HBM demand; three leading players will collectively add excess capacity to gain share, causing prices to collapse and earnings to turn negative, making Micron's optically cheap 6x forward multiple a trap.
Chip suppliers like Broadcom and Nvidia have more durable moats than AI model companies because they provide security, stability, reliability and data handling beyond just running models, sustaining profit margins as model margins compress.
Nvidia's dominance will erode as more competitors enter, but the total AI infrastructure market is expanding fast enough that Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, and hyperscalers all benefit.