jason calacanis

Well‑funded effective altruism‑linked groups are driving state and federal AI legislation, pushing for a federal AI department and restrictions on superintelligence, which will increase compliance costs and limit frontier model deployment.

Selling to local government remains exceptionally difficult, requiring Flock to attend ~10,000 city council meetings per year with a dedicated team, explaining why no GovTech company has gone public in 20+ years.

Leading enterprises (Uber, DoorDash, Databricks) are moving beyond raw model access to structured agent orchestration: embedding engineers in business units, benchmark-driven routing between frontier and open models, and harness-layer optimization that cuts token use 50-80% on fixed models.

Private equity (Josh Kushner, GC, Thoma Bravo) rolling up accounting, legal, healthcare, BPO firms to own change management and deploy AI — turning services into software-like margins; selective winners will integrate AI into existing enterprise beachheads.

Waymo's 6-month doubling and Zipline's 1M daily deliveries will eliminate driver income that previously circulated locally; wealth will flow to Silicon Valley cloud infrastructure, prompting NYC/Boston/DC bans unless paired with minimum wage hikes and trade school programs for displaced workers.

Robotaxi (Waymo), drone delivery (Zipline), and Tesla Cybercab shift earnings from local drivers to cloud infrastructure owners in Silicon Valley; political backlash will manifest as license caps and bans in NYC, Boston, DC unless minimum wage and trade school investments redistribute gains.

9 out of 10 startups are working on open source models. Kimmy is 80-90% cheaper than frontier models. Major customers spending 8-9 figures on Anthropic and OpenAI will leave because they don't trust those companies not to steal the application layer. A friend reports a customer moving nine figures from frontier labs to GLM-4.5.

AI coding agents (auto research, Claude code) reduce man-months to days — Jason built 15-year domain project in weekend, Chamath's 80/90 vibe coded website and auto research doubled CTR overnight; replicator economy arriving in software.