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ian

T2 · manager / operator

Covers semiconductors and technology from San Francisco, focusing on memory market dynamics, capacity cycles, and US-China tech competition.

11 calls·6 names·45% bull·last heard 2 months ago·Bloomberg Tech+1
track record

no scored calls yet — needs a stated position or a categorical verdict, with a matured window vs SPY

top calls

highest conviction · one per company
1sthigh conviction
$RADIANTRadiant Nuclearposition

Kantos invested in Radiant Nuclear; behind-the-meter data center demand emerges as massive pull

Military microreactors now pulled by AI data center energy demand; 30 years of flat grid growth reversed; technology commoditizes from data center use.

TBPN2026-06episode →
2ndhigh conviction
$CASTELIONCastelionposition

Kantos leads seed for Castelion missile defense tech; company graduates from El Segundo to Texas for testing

Defense tech companies start in LA/El Segundo, move to Torrance/Hawthorne, then Texas/Tennessee/New Mexico for testing; vertical integration of missile systems.

TBPN2026-06episode →
3rdhigh conviction
$SKHYSK hynix

SK Hynix rags-to-riches story with revenue tripling and 80% gross margins

SK Hynix transformed from near-bankruptcy to HBM market leader with revenue tripling and 80% gross margins. Korean government's $880B sovereign backing over multiple years mirrors TSMC model, creating insurmountable barriers to new memory entrants.

Bloomberg Tech2026-07episode →

most discussed · click a bar to filter

  • $AMD
  • $INTC
  • $SKHY
  • $MU
  • $RADIANT

recurring themes

  • Semiconductors2
  • Grid & Power Infrastructure1
  • AI Infrastructure1
11 total
$SKHY
···
SK Hynix
MEDian·Bloomberg Tech·3 months ago·SK Hynix US Listing Demand Soars | Bloomberg Tech 7/09/2026
SK Hynix revenue triples with 80% margin, signals strong investment case
SK Hynix has rebounded from near-acquisition by Micron, now tripling revenue and achieving 80% gross margins, indicating a strong turnaround and investment opportunity.
"IT IS A RED'S TO RICHES STORY, THE COMPANY WAS IN TROUBLE AND CAME CLOSE TO BEING BOUGHT BY MICRON . SAMSUNG REFUSED TO BUY IT AS WELL. IT HAS COME AN INCREDIBLY LONG WAY AND IF Y…"
3:16
$AMD
···
Advanced Micro Devices
MEDian·Bloomberg Tech·2 months ago·SpaceX's AI Push, Uber's Next Move and Zoox's Milestone | Bloomberg Tech 8/5/2026
AMD's MI300 accelerator claimed better than NVIDIA but timing uncertain as CPU demand surges
Data center business guided to more than double but Street wants specificity; MI300 accelerator said to be better than NVIDIA's offering but not yet shipping at scale; CPU demand extremely strong with AMD taking share from Intel.
"THERE IS A LOT OF FOCUS ON THIS ACCELERATOR AND AMD HAS SAID THIS IS BETTER THAN WHAT NVIDIA HAS AND HAS GOING. WHEN IS IT GOING TO BE THERE? WHEN IS IT GOING TO KICK IN? THERE IS…"
23:31
$INTC
···
Intel
MEDian·Bloomberg Tech·2 months ago·Intel Raises Cash, Apple Gets Downgraded | Bloomberg Tech 8/10/2026
Bloomberg semiconductor reporter: Intel's $15B equity raise is small relative to fab costs and Nvidia catch-up needs
While Intel's first public share sale since 1971 helps clean up the balance sheet, the $15B (potentially up to $17B) is modest compared to the 2x cost of building fabs and the capital required to compete with Nvidia in accelerators, especially without a confirmed major external foundry customer.
"IF YOU THINK ABOUT IT IN TERMS OF WHAT INTEL HAS TO ACHIEVE BUILDING THE FACTORIES WHICH COSTS TWICE THAT AMOUNT. CATCHING UP WITH NVIDIA AND AND ACCELERATORS. IT'S NOT THAT LARGE…"
1:23
$INTC
···
Intel
MEDian·Bloomberg Tech·2 months ago·Intel Raises Cash, Apple Gets Downgraded | Bloomberg Tech 8/10/2026
Intel launches first public share sale since 1971 to fund foundry buildout
Intel's $15B equity offering is modest relative to the $30B+ needed for factory equipment, but signals confidence in foundry demand from external customers like Nvidia or Apple.
"IF YOU THINK ABOUT IT IN TERMS OF WHAT INTEL HAS TO ACHIEVE BUILDING THE FACTORIES WHICH COSTS TWICE THAT AMOUNT. CATCHING UP WITH NVIDIA AND AND ACCELERATORS. IT'S NOT THAT LARGE…"
1:02
$INTC
···
Intel
MEDian·Bloomberg Tech·2 months ago·Intel Raises Cash, Apple Gets Downgraded | Bloomberg Tech 8/10/2026
Intel launches first public share sale since 1971 to fund fab buildout and AI accelerator push
Intel is raising $15B in equity to fund committed fab projects in Ohio and Arizona and position for potential external foundry customers like Nvidia or Apple, though the amount is small relative to leading-edge fab costs.
"IF YOU THINK ABOUT IT IN TERMS OF WHAT INTEL HAS TO ACHIEVE BUILDING THE FACTORIES WHICH COSTS TWICE THAT AMOUNT. CATCHING UP WITH NVIDIA AND AND ACCELERATORS. IT'S NOT THAT LARGE…"
1:23
$AMD
···
AMD
MEDian·Bloomberg Tech·2 months ago·SpaceX's AI Push, Uber's Next Move and Zoox's Milestone | Bloomberg Tech 8/5/2026
Analyst says data center business to more than double but street wants magnitude; CPU demand strong
Ian notes AMD guided data center sales to more than double but investors wanted specificity on magnitude (60% vs 2% more than double), while CPU demand remains robust with AMD taking share from Intel.
"EVERYBODY KIND OF KNOWS THEY ARE GOING TO DO WELL SO ARE WE GOING TO EXPECT THE DATA CENTER BUSINESS TO MORE THAN DOUBLE, WHAT DO YOU MEAN MORE THAN? 60% MORE THAN, 2% MORE THAN?…"
23:57
$AMD
···
Advanced Micro Devices
MEDian·Bloomberg Tech·2 months ago·SpaceX's AI Push, Uber's Next Move and Zoox's Milestone | Bloomberg Tech 8/5/2026
Data center business to more than double, new accelerator better than Nvidia but timing uncertain
Ian notes AMD guided Q3 data center sales at $13.3B (more than doubling), with latest accelerator claimed better than Nvidia's offering, but street wants specificity on timing and magnitude. CPU demand remains strong with AMD taking share from Intel.
"EVERYBODY KIND OF KNOWS THEY ARE GOING TO DO WELL SO ARE WE GOING TO EXPECT THE DATA CENTER BUSINESS TO MORE THAN DOUBLE, WHAT DO YOU MEAN MORE THAN? 60% MORE THAN, 2% MORE THAN?.…"
23:31
$MU
···
Micron Technology
MEDian·Bloomberg Tech·3 months ago·SK Hynix US Listing Demand Soars | Bloomberg Tech 7/09/2026
Micron boosts US capex to $250B as AI infrastructure devours memory chips
Micron increasing US investment commitment from $200B to $250B reflects insatiable AI-driven memory demand. However, industry's historical inability to balance supply/demand cycles creates oversupply risk if massive capacity comes online too quickly.
"THE BIG STORY, AND THIS IS WHAT TIES SK TO SAMSUNG AND MICRON, HOW MUCH CAPACITY WILL BE PUT IN PLACE AND MORE IMPORTANTLY, HOW QUICKLY? NO DEMAND -- NO DOUBT THAT DEMAND IS VERY…"
4:06
$SKHY
···
SK hynix
HIGHian·Bloomberg Tech·3 months ago·SK Hynix US Listing Demand Soars | Bloomberg Tech 7/09/2026
SK Hynix rags-to-riches story with revenue tripling and 80% gross margins
SK Hynix transformed from near-bankruptcy to HBM market leader with revenue tripling and 80% gross margins. Korean government's $880B sovereign backing over multiple years mirrors TSMC model, creating insurmountable barriers to new memory entrants.
"IT IS A RED'S TO RICHES STORY, THE COMPANY WAS IN TROUBLE AND CAME CLOSE TO BEING BOUGHT BY ITS COMPETITOR, MICRON. SAMSUNG REFUSED TO BUY IT AS WELL. IT HAS COME AN INCREDIBLY LO…"
3:16
$RADIANT
Radiant Nuclear
HIGHian·TBPN·3 months ago·Etched Founder Joins, AI Creates Jobs, It's OVER for Peptides, Tristan Thompson in the Ultradome· position
Kantos invested in Radiant Nuclear; behind-the-meter data center demand emerges as massive pull
Military microreactors now pulled by AI data center energy demand; 30 years of flat grid growth reversed; technology commoditizes from data center use.
"When I when I first invested in Radiant, we were we were talking about military applications. Totally. And the behind the meter application for data centers is not even really on…"
176:12
9
Grid & Power Infrastructuretailwind
30 years of flat grid demand reversed by AI data centers; nuclear/microreactors pulled by behind-the-meter demand
Data centers give energy companies huge demand growth; military microreactors (Radiant) now commercialized for data centers; technology commoditizes from this beachhead.
8
AI Infrastructuretailwind
Massive capex cycle drives equity raises and dedicated infrastructure vehicles
Intel's $15B equity offering, Microsoft's internal AI chip ramp, Anthropic/GIC data center JV, and Meta's hundreds of billions in data center projects signal a structural capital formation wave for AI compute infrastructure.
7
Semiconductorstailwind
AMD data center doubling but accelerator timing uncertain; CPU demand strong vs Intel
AMD guided Q3 data center revenue at $13.3B (more than double) with new accelerator claimed superior to Nvidia, but street demands specificity on ramp timing. Meanwhile CPU demand remains robust with AMD taking share from Intel, creating a 'what is old is new again' dynamic.
6
Semiconductorsmixed
AMD data center accelerator claimed better than Nvidia but not yet shipping; CPU demand robust
Analyst notes AMD's latest accelerator touted as superior to Nvidia's current offering but deployment timeline unclear, while CPU demand remains extremely strong with AMD taking share from Intel in a 'what is old is new again' dynamic.