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evan spiegel

T2 · manager / operator

Evan Spiegel co-founded Snapchat at age 22 while at Stanford, turned down a $3B acquisition offer from Facebook, and has led Snap as a public company since 2017. He has consistently invested in augmented reality for over 12 years and pioneered ephemeral messaging, Stories, and AR lenses.

9 calls·5 names·67% bull·last heard 4 months ago·Kleiner Perkins+2
track recordleaderboard →
hit rate
100%
avg alpha
+19.7pp
scored
1

top calls

best measured alpha vs SPY, then highest conviction · one per company
1st+19.7pp vs SPY
$METAMeta Platforms

Spiegel rejects $3B Meta offer, cites values mismatch and community harm

Spiegel declined Zuckerberg's $3B acquisition offer because Meta repeatedly cuts corners on community well-being and privacy; staying independent preserves a privacy-respecting, safety-focused alternative at scale.

Kleiner Perkins2025-12episode →
2ndhigh conviction
$SNAPSnap Inc.position

Snap CEO outlines 2030 hardware roadmap and path to 1B+ users

Snap's consistent 12+ year investment in augmented reality, differentiated communication-focused platform, and growing developer ecosystem create a durable moat positioning it to reach over 1 billion users and launch mass-market AR glasses by 2030.

In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen2026-06episode →
3rdmedium conviction
$LIGHTSPEED-VENTURE-PARTNERSLightspeed Venture Partners

Jeremy Liu led Snap's $485K seed at $4.25M valuation after seeing retention data

Lightspeed's Jeremy Liu invested in Snap's first institutional round based purely on retentive communication engagement data, overcoming widespread skepticism about social apps post-Facebook-graph viral era.

Kleiner Perkins2025-12episode →

most discussed · click a bar to filter

  • $SNAP
  • $META
  • $LIGHTSPEED-VENTURE-PARTNERS
  • $ZIPLINE
  • $BENCHMARK

recurring themes

  • Smart Glasses & Wearables4
  • AI Coding Agents2
  • Consumer AI1
  • Advertising1
  • AI Economics & Business Models1
9 total
$META
···
Meta Platforms
HIGHevan spiegel·Kleiner Perkins·9 months ago·How Snap Plans to Win the AR Race | Evan Spiegel on Spectacles
Spiegel rejects $3B Meta offer, cites values mismatch and community harm
Spiegel declined Zuckerberg's $3B acquisition offer because Meta repeatedly cuts corners on community well-being and privacy; staying independent preserves a privacy-respecting, safety-focused alternative at scale.
"In many ways I think we proved that decision right like a decade ago. Really because we were able to stay true to our values... I think meta has really revealed themselves time an…"
11:23
$LIGHTSPEED-VENTURE-PARTNERS
Lightspeed Venture Partners
MEDevan spiegel·Kleiner Perkins·9 months ago·How Snap Plans to Win the AR Race | Evan Spiegel on Spectacles
Jeremy Liu led Snap's $485K seed at $4.25M valuation after seeing retention data
Lightspeed's Jeremy Liu invested in Snap's first institutional round based purely on retentive communication engagement data, overcoming widespread skepticism about social apps post-Facebook-graph viral era.
"we got this reach out from Jeremy Liu at Lightspeed on Facebook, actually... we met. And at that point, you know, we didn't have a deck or investment materials or anything. We jus…"
22:49
$ZIPLINE
Zipline
MEDevan spiegel·Kleiner Perkins·9 months ago·How Snap Plans to Win the AR Race | Evan Spiegel on Spectacles
Spiegel backs Zipline as largest autonomous drone network, learns from CEO Keller Rinaudo
Zipline operates the world's largest autonomous drone delivery network, expanding from Africa to the US; Spiegel views Keller Rinaudo as a peer entrepreneur he actively learns from.
"I'm I'm a huge fan of this company called Zipline, which is run by my friend Keller, who created that Yeah. uh business. Like the largest autonomous drone network now in the world…"
54:44
$META
···
Meta Platforms
MEDevan spiegel·Kleiner Perkins·9 months ago·How Snap Plans to Win the AR Race | Evan Spiegel on Spectacles
Meta used Onavo VPN to decrypt Snapchat traffic and model acquisition
Meta acquired Onavo to install a VPN on users' phones, decrypt Snapchat traffic, and measure engagement patterns — giving them a front-row seat to Snap's growth before making acquisition overtures.
"they had acquired something called Onavo at the time and, you know, basically had installed a VPN on people's phone and had invested a lot in trying to observe their traffic and t…"
41:01
$SNAP
···
Snap
HIGHevan spiegel·Kleiner Perkins·9 months ago·How Snap Plans to Win the AR Race | Evan Spiegel on Spectacles· position
Spiegel frames Snap as unique mid-scale player with $6B revenue, 5K staff serving 1B users
Snap occupies a strategic 'middle child' position — top-5 global engagement scale outside China with $6B revenue, but far smaller than Meta/Google, forcing extreme efficiency and innovation to break out to the next revenue tier.
"from a user engagement perspective, we're now one of the largest online services in the world, right? So, probably in the top five outside of China, and meaningfully bigger than,…"
8:34
$BENCHMARK
Benchmark
LOWevan spiegel·Kleiner Perkins·9 months ago·How Snap Plans to Win the AR Race | Evan Spiegel on Spectacles
Benchmark urged Snap to build bigger than Instagram after early exit regret
Benchmark, an Instagram investor, told Spiegel they believed Instagram sold too early and encouraged Snap to pursue a larger independent outcome, reinforcing Spiegel's conviction to reject Meta's offer.
"One of the conversations we'd had with the Benchmark team cuz they had invested behind Instagram was like, 'Hey, we think they sold really early. Like we hope you agree because we…"
42:41
$SNAP
···
Snap
HIGHevan spiegel·Kleiner Perkins·9 months ago·How Snap Plans to Win the AR Race | Evan Spiegel on Spectacles· position
Snap pivoting ad business from 500 large enterprises to SMB long-tail auction model
Snap is deliberately shifting from a concentrated large-advertiser base (500 customers) to a diversified SMB long tail that optimizes for lower-funnel results, mirroring the revenue mix of Meta and Google but earlier in the journey.
"Snap's advertising business historically was built around large customers. So you know, let's call it 500 customers here in the United States that contributed the majority of Snap…"
12:41
$SNAP
···
Snap Inc.
HIGHevan spiegel·Stripe·5 months ago·What comes after smartphones, with Evan Spiegel of Snap· position
Snap CEO: Approaching 1B MAUs, net income profitability, and $1B+ subscription run rate
Snap is at a crucible moment with nearly 1 billion monthly active users, on the verge of net income profitability while investing heavily in AR glasses (Specs) and AI transformation; direct revenue via Snapchat+ (25M subscribers, $1B+ run rate) and advertising (Promoted Places with closed-loop measurement) provide diversified monetization.
"We're about to reach a billion monthly active users, which is a big deal for us. We're really excited about the progress in the core Snapchat business. We're also on the verge of…"
0:24
$SNAP
···
Snap Inc.
HIGHevan spiegel·In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen·4 months ago·Snap CEO: Building Snapchat and the Future of Communication | Podcast | In Good Company· position
Snap CEO outlines 2030 hardware roadmap and path to 1B+ users
Snap's consistent 12+ year investment in augmented reality, differentiated communication-focused platform, and growing developer ecosystem create a durable moat positioning it to reach over 1 billion users and launch mass-market AR glasses by 2030.
"Well, the hardware time horizon is obviously far longer than the software time horizon. So, you know, in the hardware space, we plan through I'd say now we're we plan through 2030…"
8:57
9
Smart Glasses & Wearablestailwind
AI is the key unlock for AR glasses: shifts computing from workstation operation to observation
AI will operate computers on users' behalf, turning glasses into a 100-inch mobile workstation that enables true multitasking and collaborative computing in the real world — the form factor finally delivers utility >10x phone.
9
Smart Glasses & Wearablestailwind
AR glasses will replace large screens first, then enable net-new social experiences
Spiegel argues see-through AR glasses (Specs) will initially displace TVs, monitors, and laptops by providing infinite screen real estate anywhere, but the larger opportunity is net-new shared experiences (gaming, building, learning together) that bring computing into the physical world rather than isolating users behind screens.
9
AI Coding Agentstailwind
Agentic software development shifted from tool to autonomous agents in 6 months
Software development has undergone a profound shift in just 6 months: AI moved from being a tool engineers use to agentic development where developers oversee autonomous agents that write, test, and fix code. This lets resource-constrained companies like Snap build and ship complex tools (e.g., a creator collaboration platform) in weeks instead of quarters, dramatically accelerating product velocity.
8
AI Coding Agentstailwind
Over two-thirds of new code at Snap now written by AI, transforming software economics
AI coding agents (Claude Code, etc.) have rapidly increased developer productivity at Snap, with >66% of new code AI-generated; this enables bespoke software creation at near-zero marginal cost, breaking App Store lock-in moats and allowing platforms like Lens Studio to become agentic creation engines.
8
Smart Glasses & Wearablestailwind
Snap's 12-year AR consistency vs competitors' starts/stops creates structural advantage
Snap has invested consistently in AR glasses since 2014 — from camera glasses to proprietary OS and developer ecosystem — while competitors pivot abruptly between consumer/enterprise and start/stop R&D. This long-term consistency, combined with hundreds of millions of existing AR users on Snapchat and a developer ecosystem that's harder to copy than app features, positions Snap to win the mass-market AR glasses race with consumer-grade Specs launching in 2025.
8
Consumer AIrisk
Public anxiety about AI job displacement is a critical industry risk requiring proactive leadership
Majority of Americans worry AI will take their jobs; Spiegel argues tech leaders must listen, communicate effectively, and help reshape education/social systems to distribute AI benefits broadly — or face political/societal backlash.
8
Smart Glasses & Wearablestailwind
AR glasses enable 'learning by doing' at scale — transformational for on-the-job training
Spectacles combined with AI allow real-time guidance overlaid on physical tasks, making apprenticeship-style learning accessible anywhere; Spiegel calls this the 'best way to learn' and a primary Specs use case.
7
Advertisingtailwind
Communication services grow slower but build more durable value than broadcast social media
Snapchat's communication-centric model (close friends/family, ephemeral, chronological) grows slower than broadcast-based social media (Instagram, TikTok) because it depends on intimate networks rather than viral distribution. However, this trade-off yields superior durability: communication services retain users for decades as relationship circles naturally shrink with age, creating resilient long-term value versus the churn-prone attention economy.