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eric seufert

T2 · manager / operator

Mobile marketing analyst and investor who advises hedge funds on Meta's AI-driven ad business; author of Mobile Dev Memo newsletter and GP of Heracles Fund.

3 calls·3 names·67% bull·last heard 3 months ago·TBPN
track record

no scored calls yet — needs a stated position or a categorical verdict, with a matured window vs SPY

top calls

highest conviction · one per company
1sthigh conviction
$METAMeta Platforms

Meta's vertical AI integration creates proprietary ad creative flywheel

Meta's image model trained exclusively on proprietary ad performance data (pixel/CAPI signals) creates an unbeatable feedback loop for ad creative generation that no other frontier lab can replicate, directly driving 33% ad revenue growth on $55B base.

TBPN2026-07episode →
2ndmedium conviction
$BYTEDANCEByteDance

TikTok Shop AI avatars generating $1B+ brands via 12K hours training data; GMV spillover to Amazon/DTC

ByteDance's TikTok Shop uses custom AI models trained on 12,000 hours of human product interaction to generate photorealistic avatar infomercials that outperform human creative when undetected; Comfort Hoodies scaled to $1B/year via affiliate model.

TBPN2026-07episode →
3rdmedium conviction
$GOOGLAlphabet

Google's video generation not ready for YouTube ads; DeepMind's Gemma leading open models

Veo video model still shows artifacts (car count inconsistencies) making it unready for YouTube ad deployment, but Gemma models are 'super amazing' and agent-ready, becoming one of Ollama's most downloaded models.

TBPN2026-07episode →

most discussed · click a bar to filter

  • $META
  • $BYTEDANCE
  • $GOOGL

recurring themes

  • AI Infrastructure1
  • Advertising1
3 total
$META
···
Meta Platforms
HIGHeric seufert·TBPN·3 months ago·5.6 Sol + Superapp Release, AI 2040, Tibothy Joins, New Robot Hand Alert, Meta Releases Muse 1.1
Meta's vertical AI integration creates proprietary ad creative flywheel
Meta's image model trained exclusively on proprietary ad performance data (pixel/CAPI signals) creates an unbeatable feedback loop for ad creative generation that no other frontier lab can replicate, directly driving 33% ad revenue growth on $55B base.
"We've got our own custom evals. Everything about the training was built with data that only we have. no other uh Frontier Lab can can can fine-tune their own models for this use c…"
36:00
$BYTEDANCE
ByteDance
MEDeric seufert·TBPN·3 months ago·5.6 Sol + Superapp Release, AI 2040, Tibothy Joins, New Robot Hand Alert, Meta Releases Muse 1.1
TikTok Shop AI avatars generating $1B+ brands via 12K hours training data; GMV spillover to Amazon/DTC
ByteDance's TikTok Shop uses custom AI models trained on 12,000 hours of human product interaction to generate photorealistic avatar infomercials that outperform human creative when undetected; Comfort Hoodies scaled to $1B/year via affiliate model.
"what Bite Dance is doing is incredible on this front, right? So they put out this paper a month ago... they invested in you know in in essentially like fine-tuning this model to m…"
42:00
$GOOGL
···
Alphabet
MEDeric seufert·TBPN·3 months ago·5.6 Sol + Superapp Release, AI 2040, Tibothy Joins, New Robot Hand Alert, Meta Releases Muse 1.1
Google's video generation not ready for YouTube ads; DeepMind's Gemma leading open models
Veo video model still shows artifacts (car count inconsistencies) making it unready for YouTube ad deployment, but Gemma models are 'super amazing' and agent-ready, becoming one of Ollama's most downloaded models.
"I was uh demoing the latest uh VO model and it's good but it's still clockable as AI generated. There's still I had some cars spinning around and you know it's three cars and then…"
43:00
9
AI Infrastructuretailwind
Vertical integration becomes strategic moat for AI labs (Meta, 1X, OpenAI)
Meta's proprietary ad data → image model → better ads flywheel, 1X's full-stack robot manufacturing (motors/tendons/sensors), and OpenAI's custom Cerebras inference demonstrate that controlling the full stack from data to silicon to deployment creates compounding advantages over API-dependent competitors.
8
Advertisingtailwind
Meta's AI investments directly driving 33% ad revenue growth; TikTok Shop spillover model undervalued
Meta's proprietary creative flywheel (image model trained on pixel/CAPI data) converts AI capex into measurable ad revenue growth (33% on $55B). TikTok Shop generates massive spillover to Amazon/DTC (Comfort Hoodies $1B via affiliates) but captures only $20B GMV directly due to poor in-app checkout.