dave

Three of the most valuable private companies ever — SpaceX, OpenAI ($850B), Anthropic ($965B) — are going public simultaneously, creating a unique capital allocation challenge for retail investors and a test of market appetite for narrative-driven, profitless growth at historic valuations.

AI and automation democratize intelligence and manufacturing capability, potentially allowing developing countries to leapfrog traditional development stages; Brazil cited as pole position for AI supercycle benefits over next two decades.

The next major AI value creation will come from applying frontier models to scientific discovery—material science, physics, mathematics—producing breakthroughs that connect with mainstream society more profoundly than chatbots.

GV is shifting focus to AI-driven scientific discovery, where top models combined with domain expertise are producing unprecedented breakthrough rates in materials, physics and mathematics that will eventually connect with mainstream adoption like ChatGPT did.

GV is shifting more investment partner time to San Francisco due to unprecedented deal concentration, while noting private valuations are rising exponentially driven by massive TAM expectations and a coming wave of AI IPOs.