Dan (Dan Nishbal) leads the SemiAnalysis team's work on Cloud TCO (Total Cost of Ownership) analysis. He frames the $11T AI capex problem, the $7.1T debt financing need, and the trinity of capital/offtake/data center. He previously wrote about Nvidia as the 'central bank of AI'.
no scored calls yet — needs a stated position or a categorical verdict, with a matured window vs SPY
CoreWeave was the first neocloud to secure project finance via a 5-year hyperscaler offtake (Microsoft), establishing the template for GPU-backed lending. Its debt spreads now serve as the benchmark for newer entrants like Nebius, with execution risk priced at ~105bps over hyperscaler credit risk.
Blackstone was an early private equity provider of GPU-backed debt to CoreWeave, but as spreads compress and capital needs grow to trillions, private equity/credit returns will become too low, requiring broader capital sources (banks, insurance) to fund the $7.1T AI debt market.