ben thompson

T2 · manager / operator

Founder and author of Stratechery, an independent publication analyzing technology strategy, business models and the economics of digital platforms.

17 calls·15 names·47% bull·last heard last month·Stripe+1
track recordleaderboard →
hit rate
0%
avg alpha
-11.9pp
scored
3

top calls

highest conviction · one per company
1sthigh conviction
$TTWOTake-Two Interactiveposition

Thompson: GTA 6 Vastly Underpriced at $80, Should Charge $200 Given AAA Craftsmanship Pinnacle

GTA 6 represents the peak of pre-AI AAA game development with years of craftsmanship, giving Rockstar immense pricing power that the market underestimates at current $80 price point.

TBPN2026-07
2ndhigh conviction
$SUBSTACKSubstackposition

Premium newsletter model proves direct creator monetization at scale with low cost structure

The sovereign writer model — direct paid subscriptions, global reach via Stripe, minimal fixed costs — unlocks a massive long tail of viable media businesses; the internet enables infinite 'ponds' where creators can be the big fish, and AI further lowers production costs.

Stripe2026-02
3rdhigh conviction
$MSFTMicrosoft

Thompson: Xbox Game Pass Cannibalized Revenue Without Expanding Market, Division Should Be Spun Out

Game Pass failed to attract new gamers and merely cannibalized existing high-margin game sales, while Microsoft's living room strategy failed because consumers buy consoles for games not as internet portals.

TBPN2026-07

most discussed · click a bar to filter

17 total
$OPENAI
OpenAI
MEDben thompson·Stripe·6 months ago
OpenAI could be one of world's most valuable companies just on ChatGPT distribution
ChatGPT's brand and user habit constitute a durable distribution moat; OpenAI could stop training models and still capture enormous value as the default consumer AI interface, but is undermining this by pursuing a suboptimal banner-ad model instead of Meta-style user profiling.
"actually OpenAI could stop making models and be one of the most valuable companies in the world just because of ChatGPT. That's their most valuable asset... what they're doing is…"
6:08
$META
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Meta Platforms
HIGHben thompson·Stripe·6 months ago
Meta's ad model is the world's largest AI agent and most underrated business model
Facebook/Instagram advertising functions as the world's most successful AI agent — autonomously finding customers for advertisers at target CAC — and Meta's ad-driven model is structurally superior to search ads because it shows users products they didn't know they wanted, creating massive consumer surplus.
"the largest and most successful agent in the world today is Facebook advertising... what you do is you go in and you say uh this acquiring a customer for this is worth $10 to me.…"
41:47
$MSFT
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Microsoft
MEDben thompson·Stripe·6 months ago
Microsoft's integrated mediocrity crushes best-of-breed SaaS in real-world SMB markets
Microsoft wins not by having the best products but by offering good-enough integrated suites that solve the coordination problem for non-tech buyers; this distribution moat will persist into AI era and continue compressing vertical SaaS valuations.
"Everyone is just sitting in the SaaS era. All these companies are like, 'Oh, the Microsoft's sucks. We're going to make the best-of-breed product.' And guess what? Uh startups in…"
86:27
$AMZN
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Amazon
MEDben thompson·Stripe·6 months ago
AWS's cost-optimization playbook (Graviton/Trainium) faces generational leap risk in AI
Amazon's cloud dominance came from structurally lower cost structure via custom silicon (Graviton) where Amazon is its own first customer; Trainium attempts the same for AI, but the strategy assumes performance plateaus — questionable when each GPU generation brings massive leaps.
"The whole Nitro architecture and like just the way they architected everything doing a lot of their own chips, shifting to Graviton... The problem is that works when you sort of l…"
88:08
$INTC
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Intel
MEDben thompson·Stripe·6 months ago
Hyperscalers must fund Intel Foundry as TSMC alternative despite execution risk
Geopolitical and economic concentration risk at TSMC forces Microsoft, Google, Amazon to invest in Intel's foundry turnaround; the cost of insuring against 2029 chip shortage justifies the investment even if Intel remains second-tier.
"Intel shut down some of their CPU plants... the hyperscalers in particular need to appreciate I think a massive crunch is coming and it's now on them to get Intel up to speed, to…"
70:46
$WDAY
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Workday
MEDben thompson·Stripe·6 months ago
Systems of record like Workday are AI-resistant; even Anthropic buys rather than builds
Deeply embedded enterprise systems of record (HR, finance) have high switching costs and regulatory/compliance complexity that make them impervious to AI-driven 'cloud coding' replacement; Anthropic choosing Workday validates the moat.
"Anthropic just installed Workday... Systems of record are are are is that that's the category that is definitely not safe... I don't think anyone's cloud coding one of those syste…"
51:24
$NET
···
Cloudflare
LOWben thompson·Stripe·6 months ago
Cloudflare experimenting with market mechanism for AI training data payments
Cloudflare is attempting to build a two-sided market for AI training data — paying creators directly for content that models can't otherwise access — addressing the looming data wall as journalistic enterprises collapse.
"I know Cloudflare is trying to push on that, so we'll see what happens."
83:42
$SUBSTACK
Substack
HIGHben thompson·Stripe·6 months ago· position
Premium newsletter model proves direct creator monetization at scale with low cost structure
The sovereign writer model — direct paid subscriptions, global reach via Stripe, minimal fixed costs — unlocks a massive long tail of viable media businesses; the internet enables infinite 'ponds' where creators can be the big fish, and AI further lowers production costs.
"I wanted from the and just think about the psychology of this. When I started Substack I had a gazillion ideas of things to write about. And I limited myself to writing a max of t…"
52:30
$AAPL
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Apple
MEDben thompson·Stripe·6 months ago
Apple makes greatest devices but is a terrible platform steward; software quality declining
Apple's hardware excellence (iPhone Air, manufacturing prowess) secures its device franchise, but its manager-led culture neglects platform stewardship (Siri, App Store rules) and software quality, creating long-term vulnerability if hardware differentiation narrows.
"Apple... manufacturing prowess remains amazing. Like the iPhone Air that just... the greatest smartphone ever made... Obviously Apple's software has gotten pretty rough... the App…"
83:54
$GOOGL
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Alphabet
MEDben thompson·Stripe·6 months ago
Google's suboptimal execution creates hidden resilience and adaptability
Google's lack of focus and myriad science projects — frustrating to analysts — actually provide optionality and durability; its core search/ad monopoly throws off so much cash that the company can afford inefficiency and still dominate when it eventually executes.
"almost everything I feel like they do suboptimally... But I think that lack of optimization that actually makes them maybe the most resilient of all the tech companies because the…"
85:18